Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.
The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.
Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)
Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)
This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score. She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1
Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)
He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score. His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.
Broodmare Sires
Other Pedigree Examination Tools
Oasis Dream
Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert. Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross. Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses. But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.
Conclusions
Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”