Category Archives: Breeding and Racing Thoroughbreds

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024

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After the heights reached in the Inglis Easter Sale, you might wonder what the Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024 can provide. There are still quality yearlings on offer. They are probably available at a price more buyers can afford. Thoroughbreds’ price (especially their service fee) is  a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential. There is hope in purchasing something affordable. We have selected five yearlings for consideration based on their pedigrees.

Lot 17 b c Churchill – La Breviere

For anyone interested in a horse with the potential to win the Melbourne Cup, Lot 17 is for you. Churchill has recorded 18 SW; only three have won at less than 1600m.  Two are winners at 2817m in Ireland. His progeny have seven G1 victories to date. The female line through La Breviere is very strong with a 6GFI score of 12.5%.

Churchill: European Champion Juvenile

Two notables in the female line are Outback Prince (T J Smith Classic) and Try My Best Champion Miler). Fastnet Rock is an ideal broodmare match for Churchill. It will put a bit of speed into his staying prowess. This cross has already produced a SW. Churchillian is a G3 winner in NZ over1610m. I rate lot 17 at PRI 95.6.

Lot 65 b f Rubick – Turf Belle

Through his dam Sliding Cube, Rubick joins the long line of super sires who carry the Best in Show genes. The most recent progeny was Almond Eye who won consecutive Japan Cups. Rubick has shown himself to be a sire of sprinters.

Rubick: A member of the Best in Show dynasty

Of his twelve SW, all have won at a distance less than 1600m: most at 1200m. Turf Belle’s female family has a 6GFI of a respectable 4.71%. The cross Rubick – Bel Esprit has produced one SW. Rubiquitous was successful in the L Mick Dittman Plate for 3yo over 1107m.  The PRI score for Lot 65 is 96.7.

Nicconi Yearlings

I have grouped these together because the pedigrees have different weaknesses. However, Nicconi is a successful sire. Just the connections of Nature Strip and if he can overpower any relevant weakness, a useful horse may result. For those readers who are interested in Nicconi yearlings, here are my conclusions.

Lot 70 b f Nicconi – A City Girl

PRI score 72.3; 6GFI 4.22. Scenic in sire line incompatible with all sires in female line

Nature Strip 22 wins,$20m stakes. Nicconi’s best horse

. Cross has produced one SW. Scorched Earth won the L Cramer Valley Pearl 1208m.

 

Lot 79 b f Nicconi – Bellissima Miss

PRI score 83.8; 6GFI 0.80. Only one SW in last 6 generations in female line. Cross has produced one SW. Exclusive Lass won L Black Pearl Classic 1200m.

Lot 82 br f Nicconi – Blessed

PRI score 78.3; 6GFI 2.88. Similar cross to Exceed and Excel mare as lot 70. Problem with Scenic incompatibility. A similar cross produced Scorched Earth.

Overall, there are good affordable yearlings at Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024

 

Inglis Easter Sale 2024

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales 2024

The wonderful Inglis Easter Sale is almost here. There are 500 Lots on offer. This is a recovery from 457 in 2023. There is somewhat a changing of the guard. A few old established sires have retired, and fresh youngsters have replaced them. I have selected four yearlings which based on pedigree are worth a look.

Lot 27 (b c Maurice – Fenway)

Maurice has produced to date 24 SW. Colts outnumber fillies 2 to 1. SW/r is 3.88%.

The cross of Maurice to the High Chaparral female line has already produced 2 SW.

  • Shigeru Park Ruby won a G2 fillies race in Japan over1406m.
  • Noah “N” Deal won L Tattersall’s Crown over 2113m.

Maurice: Six G1 Victories

The female line comes down through Denise’s Joy and is both prolific and high class. Six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.6%. There isn’t enough room in the catalogue. High achievers such as Primus, Thorn Park, Bentley Biscuit and Ego have been left out. Lot 27 has a PRI score of 97.5. Black Type territory.

 

Lot 28 ( b c Maurice – Fifteen Aria )

Following on the comments on Lot 27, Lot 28 comes from an interesting female line. The cross Maurice with the Danehill stallion Fastnet Rock has produced one SW.

  • Danon Ayers Rock won a L race in Japan over 1811m as a 2yo.

The female line of Lot 28 has a very impressive 6GFI of 22.4%. The cross to O’Reilly raises a few yellow flags. Last Tycoon crosses sometimes fail to achieve a breeder’s expectations – but sometimes they make a champion. A PRI score of 88.8 somewhat reflects this.

Lot 414 ( b c Exceed and Excel -Allez Bien )

With Exceed and Excel being rested from further stud duties, this is a chance of owning one of his last progenies. The sire of 317 SW, it’s a good reason. Exceed and Excel has SW/r of 4.09%. The cross to O’Reilly has already produced two SW.

Exceed and Excel: sire line of 317 SW

  • Dublin Don was the winner of the G3 Pago Pago Stakes over1208m as a 2yo.
  • Invictus Spirit won the L Starlight Stakes over1107m.

The female line of Lot 414 has a very encouraging 6GFI of 13.6%. The PRI score a healthy 94.2.

Lot 498 (ch c Per Incanto – Dreamlife)

Per Incanto had only a modest record as a racehorse. However, he seems to be making up for it as a sire. A SW/r ratio of 4.91 is up with the best of them. Of his 28 SW the best known is the Newmarket Handicap winner Roch ‘N’ Horse. The cross to Danroad has produced one winner.

  • Lost and Running was successful in the G2 Workwear Premier Stakes 1208m.

The female line has a quite acceptable 6GFI of 5.31%. Lot 498 a PRI score on 98.3

The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is always a great event If you can be there, good luck.

 

Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale 2024

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The Magic Millions Gold Coast 2024 Yearling Sale heralds the commencement of the list of Australian thoroughbred yearling sales. Twelve months ago, in this MM Sale, I posted my choice of three fillies that I considered had the pedigree to do well. Now named, Joy of the World, Starzzaborn, and Toque, only Torque has stated in a race. A third at Wyong, following wins in barrier trials at Randwick and Warwick Farm, is a promising start. One observation I have made from the catalogue of 1468 yearlings is the number of Danehill and Danehill sons crosses breeders continue to make.  Consider the mares put to that excellent sire Extreme Choice (11 SW and SW/r 13.35%). Of the 19 yearlings in the sale,12 (63%) are inbred to Danehill. The owners are obviously no fans of my blogs.

The yearlings I suggest my readers should look at are all fillies:

Lot 28 br f Wootton Bassett – Patsy Boyne

Wootton Bassett is already the sire of 50 SW with a percentage of SW/r of 6.76. The cross to Galileo has produced 3 SW. G1 winners are Zellie (2yo winner Prix Marcel Boussac over 1610m) and Al Riffa (2yo winner Vincent O’brien over 1409m). Chindit was a prolific winner, 2xG2,2xG3,4x L. The PRI score of 93.8 bodes well for her future.

 

Lot 59 br f Maurice – Princess Charlotte

Maurice is an established sire with 23 SW and a 3.79 percentage of SW/r. His best horse to date is Hitotsu. Winning three of Australia’s most important G1 3yo races. AJC, VRC Derbies and Australian Guineas aren’t a bad package. Overall, the cross to Redoute’s Choice produced five SW. The SW/r of this cross is 9.09%. When considered with a PRI score of 100. Lot 59 is certainly worth a look.

 

 

Lot 327 br f Savabeel – Urban

Savabeel

Savabeel is an outstanding sire. He has sired 128 SW. His SW/r score of 10.39% is remarkable. Kawi, his best horse, was a seven times G1winner in NZ. The cross to O’Reilly has produced an astonishing 36 SW. This figure is 28% of his total number of SW. The score for SW/r is 12.16%. The best horse is Probabeel winner of the Futurity Stakes. With a PRI of 98.3, Lot 327 could add to the list.

 

Lot 417 b f  Russian Revolution – Altairs Glow

Russian Revolution

Russian Revolution is a relative newcomer. Although he has only 8 SW he shows plenty of promise. His figures for SW/r are 3.88%. The cross to Australia’s  leading broodmare sire Encosta de Lago has produced a G1 winner. Communist won the Randwick Guineas over 1610m. A PRI score 95.0 suggests a very good racehorse.

I hope you can get to the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale of 2024. You will enjoy the experience.

 

 

Update on PRI analysis of 2020 yearlings

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A review of the effectiveness of a PRI score is due. The yearling sales are about to commence. I thought it opportune to see how successful or otherwise my selections have been. In my postings to my website in 2020 I selected 14 yearlings. You soon learn that two of the most important things you need in racing horses is money, followed by patience. Being patient is emphasised by the fact that my selected horses earned more money in their 4yo career than their combined 2yo and 3yo efforts. This result is of course the expression of the genes in the pedigree. I made my selections with a few exceptions on PRI values alone.

Table for Comparisons

There is little information available on the net about the financial return from racing horses. The excellent article by  Gary Macrell is a must for anyone wishing to own a race horse. There is difficulty in finding comparative data. The best I can come up with is in the table above. I stress this is useful for comparison; there is not enough to reach the level of significance. In my calculations I have used only the capital cost of purchasing a horse. My figures for Return on Capital (ROC) consider only the prize money earned divided by the capital purchase value. The operational costs (training, veterinary, breaking in, transport etc) are considerable and are different for every horse.

Flavonebr Selections Runners Winners SP Total $m ROC %
As 2yo/3yo 14 9 7 1 0.64 22
As 4yo 11 9 2 1.48 58
Random
As 2yo/3yo 12 9 5 0.35 22
As 4yo 10 6 0.44 27
COP  10  9  0.93  9
  1. The horses chosen by Flavonebr from the Sales were obviously slow to mature. At present five of the fourteen continue racing as 5yo. This includes two that have been placed in Stakes races so an improvement of ROC is anticipated with time.
  2. When I developed my PRI Index system, I had no way of measuring if it was better than random. Consequently, I used a random generator to select the same number of horses in the Sale that PRI had selected. Initially the results were almost the same but as more data become available the PRI method rapidly became dominant.
  3. I did find some interesting data in a paper “ Investigation into the profitability of horses sold at the Magic Millions Yearling Sales.” They (COPR)* are hardly friends of the racing industry and I would dispute some of the conclusions they have drawn from the data. However, I have no reason to believe their data is suspect. In fact, their calculations on the data mirror mine   They compared the profitability of the ten highest and lowest yearlings in the 2017 Sales. In their view none made a profit and the ROC value of the expensive was 9%. The income was taken up to September 2022.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that a PRI score can improve the chances of selecting a good horse. It is double that of using random selection.For the ten most expensive yearling at the 2007 Sale. PRI was six times more effective.

For my horse performance of the year I have selected White Abarrio, winner of the

Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Everyone thought he was a good horse as a miler, but suspect at 10f. Moved out three wide to make his run he nevertheless shot forward at the turn into the straight. No-one could catch him. Great Effort.

MM National Yearling Sale

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It is now time to focus on the MM National Yearling Sale for 2023. Four hundred  yearlings are catalogued. Many of these have excellent pedigrees. The challenge is to find ones that will make good racehorses. I have selected four that are very well bred and have high PRI scores. Certainly, they are worth a physical examination. A word here about conformation.. As the great trainer John Nerud (the man who invented the American Breeders Cup Series) is quoted as saying “Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook conformation”. Get advice from an experienced trainer. He will know if a yearling’s comformational “faults” will prevent it from reaching its full potential on the racetrack.

Lot 1442 (b c Xtravagant – Arc)

Xtravagant has produced 5 SW (SW/r 5.05%). Two of these are from a cross to the More Than Ready female sire line . The SW/r number is 66.67%. He’s Exceptional won a L race as a 3yo over1208m.  His sister, Xtravagant Star won  a L race over1107m. The female tail line of Lot 1442 is not exceptionally strong with 6GFI of 6.03%. However, Arc is where the action is and  a PRI is very good at 94.2.

Lot 1481 ( b f Night of Thunder – Chicago Star)

Night of Thunder crossed with Exceed and Excel has already produced two SW, both fillies. This shows as a SW/r value of 25%. Lola Showgirl won a G3 in the UK over1409m and River Night won a L race for 2yo over1006m.

Night of Thunder

The 6GFI of 19.6% is exceptional. The female line contains US Army Ranger, second in the English Derby and a starter in a Melbourne Cup. Both Night of Thunder and Exceed and Excel are versatile in their roles of sire and broodmare sire. Something exceptional could happen. The PRI is very good at 97.1, which adds to confidence.

Lot 1505 (b of br c Pride of Dubai – Di Alta)

Pride of Dubai is off to a great start as a sire. Already twenty SW and three G1 victories. The cross Pride of Dubai to High Chaparral has produced three SW. Desert Lightning won the G2 Avondale Guineas over2113m. She’s Fit was successful in the WA Oaks (G3) over 2415m. Splendiferous was successful in the G3 Premiers Cup at 2415m and the L Port Adelaide Cup over 2515m. The score of SW/r of 20% is very impressive. The female tail line is also impressive with a 6GFI of19.2%. The great sire Darshaan is the best performed horse. The PRI score is the maximum of 100.

Lot 1567 (b c Dundeel – Italia Bella)

The cross Dundeel – Fastnet Rock has produced a L SW. Cerberus won the Hill Stakes over1811m. The SW/r is only a modest 3.23%. However, the strength of the pedigree is in the female tail line with a 6GFI of 20.5%. Impressive enough, and highlighted by the mare Grand Luxe (Sir Ivor – Fanfeluche). Fanfeluche was

Fanfreluche in retirement

Canadian horse of the year and US Champion 3yo filly and when sold she was the world’s most expensive mare.  L’On Vite (dam of Holy Roman Emperor) is part of her female line. PRI score of 97.5 is worth noting.

Every Year the MM National Yearling Sale is a wonderful event. Hope you can make it.

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale May 2023

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The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale of 2023 has 191 Lots for sale. Eighty-nine stallions are represented. The majority are new or untried. The sale gives buyers a wide choice. However, it makes it harder to evaluate the offerings. I have selected three yearlings that rank highly on my system. I believe they are worth examination.

Lot 21 b f Star Witness – Bonyatta

This cross of Star Witness to Street Cry has produced two SW fillies. Alsephina was successful in the G3 La Trice Classic over 1811m. Threeood won the G3 Gosford Belle of the Turf over 1600m. Street Cry is rapidly rising the list of successful broodmare

Street Cry

sires. His best effort to date is the triple G1 winner Cascadian, an Australian Cup winner. This cross has a very impressive SW/r score of 18.2%. The female 6GFI is 11.0%. Boosted by the Eight Carat female bloodline, Octagonal, Danewin, Commands, Tristalove etc. The PRI score of Lot 21 is 95.8.

Lot 44 b f Brazen Beau – De Sea Eagle

The cross Brazen Beau to Flying Spur has produced two SW. On the Bubbles was a G1 winner of the Manawatu Sires in NZ over 1409m. It was also successful in 3 L races. Bello Beau was successful in two L races in Australia. Statistically this cross has an SW/r ratio of 9.52%. The female line has 6GFI of 7.85%. Petrova the dual G1 winner in South Africa is the best horse. She won the Fillies Guineas of 1600m. Lot 44 scores 87.9 in PRI analysis.

Lot 143 b c Starcraft – Rezyana

To date this cross has produced one SW. However, this colt has the pedigree to add to it. The SW/r score is only a modest 4.0%, but the female tail line could produce

Starcraft

something magical. The cross Starcraft to Redoute’s Choice produced Lorimer Street winner of the L St Albans Stakes as a 2yo over 1208m. The 6GFI is 8.91%. Looking back down the tail female line one finds Spring Adieu (Buckpasser-Natalma). Natalma is of course the dam of Northern Dancer. Nothing wrong with the male side of the pedigree either. The PRI score for Lot 143 is 98.3.

 

 

 

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has an interesting list of yearlings from untried sires. Certainly they need physical examination.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale

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Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2023 follows the Inglis Chairman’s Sale. The Broodmare Sale has several interesting mares. A buyer must be aware that not only they will meet the initial outlay for a mare in foal but should budget for spending a minimum of $40-50 thousand to the time of her progeny’s first race. When I consider purchasing a mare in foal, I closely examine two factors.

  • The progeny resulting from the mating should be investigated as one would for a yearling at a Sale. Of course, examination of physical characteristics is not possible. One needs to rely on the previous history of the mare and siblings. A PRI calculation is a good start.
  • A close examination of the data in the catalogue. I have developed a system (MMI, Mare’s Mating Index). My system is open ended (like the earthquake Richter scale). Numbers go from zero to over 2000. The average is 415.

I have selected three mares in the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale which warrant consideration.

Lot 263 b m Paper Plane (Fastnet Rock – Luminous Eyes) : Served by Wootton Bassett

  • The cross Wootton Bassett – Fastnet Rock has already produced one SW. Unanimous Consent was successful at L level in America over1710m. This cross has SW/r of 11.1%. The PRI score for the progeny is a healthy 87.5.

Wootton Bassett

  • The mare rates above average with MMI of 640. The 6GFI is a very impressive 18.8% The best horse down the female line is the dual G1 winner French horse Youmzain. Probably best known for coming second three times in the Arc.

Lot 300 b m Stars Are Out (Fastnet Rock – Moon is Up) : Served by Pride of Dubai

  • The cross Pride of Dubai – Fastnet Rock has produced two SW. Saif was successful at G3 level over 1409m. Queen if Dubai has won a L race over1409m. This cross has SW/r of 10%. The PRI score for the progeny is 87.9.

Pride of Dubai

  • The mare rates a MMI of 520. The 6GFI is a healthy 14.8%. It is even more impressive when you consider that Miesque the dam of Kingmambo is part of the female line. From 913 foals he produced 85 SW (9.3%). Who wouldn’t want him in your female family?
Lot 330 b m All That I Know (More Than Ready – Lucida): Served by So You Think
  • The cross So you Think – More Than Ready has produced a SW. Cognito was the winner of the G2 NZ Guineas over1409m. The PRI score of this progeny is a stellar 99.2.
  • The mare rates above average with MMI of 520. The 6GFI is 12.5%. The female side of the pedigree has Eight Carat and all her related superstars.

If you want to see some quality mares, Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Inglis HTBA Yearling Sale April 2023

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The Inglis Yearling Sale April 2023 has 299 entrees. There are 62 sires represented; most are new with their progeny yet to make an impact on the race track. This makes it more difficult to evaluate the pedigrees of the yearlings. The analytical methods are the same. However, the outcomes are less precise but here are two I like.

Lot 33  br f  All Too Hard – Fortunately

The cross All Too Hard – More Than Ready has worked well and produced three SW. Two of these were success at G1 level three times. Wellington won in Hong Kong including the prestigious Hong Kong Silver Jubilee Cup over 1409m. Forbidden Love was successful in the George Ryder Stakes over1509m.Outrageous was successful at G3 level over1509m. The 6GFI of the dam’s line was an acceptable 5.14%. The female line is dominated by the exceptional broodmare Twiglet. Lot 33 has a PRI score of 96.3. On this basis it should be a good winner

Lot 248 b c Shalaa – Belle De Jeu

Shalaa wins at Deauville (2015)

The cross Shalaa – Not a Single Doubt has an outstanding SW/r  of 25%. Shaquero is the is one SW  produced to date. He was successful in the G3 Pago  Pago Stakes over over1208m.The female line has a 6GFI of 5.39%. Dominated by the Golder Slipper winner Belle De Jour. Lot 248 has a PRI score of 89.6. With luck it should be successful.

If you are attending the Inglis HTBA Yearling sale have a look at these two horses. I hope they physically match their looks with their pedigree.

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023

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The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023 is about to get going. The number of horses on offer is down from the 514 in 2020 to 457. However, the quality is up. Based on pedigree this draft in the best I have seen since I started my reviews. I have selected six yearlings which I consider are worth examination.

Lot 9 ( b or br c So You Think – Absolution)

This cross between two outstanding sires has already produced five SW. Their progeny

So You Think: 10 times G1 winner

won at distances from 1200m to 2000m. Headed by Inference (Randwick Guineas) and D’argento (Rosehill Guineas). The female line of Absolution is not strong but adequate to suggest this colt should be competitive at the classic distances. A PRI score of 91.7 reinforces that view.

Lot 12 ( b c Snitzel – Acquired )

This colt brings together most proven sire lines. Three SW have resulted. The best performed is Patroness. She was successful in the G1 South Australian Oaks. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.12 which is quite respectable. The best horse was probably Rostova, winner G1 Sangster Stakes over 1200m. Lot 12 has a PRI score of 92.5.

Lot 112 ( b f Pierro – Electric Dreams)

Pierro is certainly picking up speed as a SW sire. His score is now 34. Redoute’s Choice mares have contributed 10 of these. Nothing to show that the trend won’t

Pierro: tripple Crown winner: now making it as sire

continue. Arcadia Queen, Regal Power and Levendi-all G1 winners. A calculation of 6GFI gives a modest value of 4.82. However, the female line does hold some excellent horses – Grand Armee, Tristalove, Anamato, Dance Hero to name a few. Lot 112 has a presence proximity to some of these. A PRI score of 92.9 is another confidence booster.

Lot 166 (b f Pierro – Hetaera )

Some of the comments made on Lot 112 are relevant to Lot 166.The presence of Famous Star in this pedigree doesn’t help. Nevertheless, a PRI score of 95.6 is more than useful. From the pedigree of Lot 112, Rory’s Jester is replaced by Royal Academy. This appears to be a better fit. One of the best horses in the female line is Lolita Star who won the Wakeful Stakes (G2). She followed this up with a third in the VRC Oaks.

Lot 260 ( b c Deep Field – Nakataan )

Deep Field has been a successful young stallion. He has already sired 22 SW including three G1 winners. Practically all his winners have been sprinters. Portland Sky won a

Deep Field: young stallion on the way up

G1 Oakleigh Plate and races don’t get much more hectic than that. The cross to Zabeel seems to preserve the speed of the progeny. There have been three SW from the Deep Field /Zabeel cross – all have been successful at 1200m or shorter.  The female line has good depth with 6GFI of 8.81. Triumphal March, winner of a Moonee Valley Cup of 2600m is there.

Lot 378 ( b f Pierro – Spina Rosa)

Lot 378 is like Lots 112 and 166 but the tail line female can make all the difference. Woodman, through Mr Prospector, adds considerable physical strength to this pedigree. The female line has a 6GFI of 10.7 and shows great versatility. The sprinter Falkirk (6 times a SW in Australia and NZ and 4th in the Kings Stand at  Ascot in England ) and Lord Reims ( Caulfield Cup winner and three times winner of the Adelaide Cup ) are both part of the pedigree. The cross Deep Field/ Woodman has produced one SW. A Very Fine Red was successful in the Alinghi Stakes over 1107m. Albeit it is along way down the pedigree (1×5). Lot 378 rates very high with PRI Score of 95.4

If you are able to make it to Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023 may good luck be your companion.

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2023

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Inglis Classic Yearling Sale commences the Company’s selling season on February 12th. With 830 lots on the Catalogue there is something for everyone. Personally, with flood recovery still underway I haven’t been able to put in the time I like. However, I have uncovered two yearlings which I believe should  attract attention.

Lot 199 br f Better Than Ready – Where it Began

Better Than Ready has got off to a promising start. He has sired 8 SW including the G1 winner Apache Chase who scored in the Kingston – Smith Cup over 1308m. The female line is excellent. A 6GFI of 14.3% is something to be proud about. The cross Better Than Ready to Exceed and Excel has already produced a SW.  Skirt the Law won a L race for 2yo at the Gold Coast. A calculation of her PRI score records 96.5. She should win something and its likely to be something pretty good.

Lot 479 b c Star Turn – Holley Shiftwell

Star Turn has begun with a big bang. Six SW in his first couple of crops.  He is leading the sires’ premiership table with 54.2% winners /runners. But can he keep it up? If Lot 479 lives up to his pedigree it will help him. The female line is a bit of an enigma. The 6GFI is only average at 4.31%. However, it is spiced with powerful horses. Kingston Rule still holds the Melbourne Cup 3200m track record.  The cross Star Turn – Testa Rossa has already produced a SW. Saltaire scored in the Inglis Nursery 2yo over 1006m. The PRI score for this colt is 88.5. High enough to achieve plenty.

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale is one not to be missed.

Inglis Ready2Race Sale 2022

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Inglis Ready2Race sale will shortly be underway. For the purchaser of a race horse   ready to run sales have an advantage over traditional yearling sales. The horses have been broken in and their performance both live and on video is there for all to see. The costs of getting a horse to the point where it can show what it can do have already been met. Vendors hope/expect to recover these costs in the sale. So prices will generally be higher than those at a traditional auction sale

However, selecting the right horse still follows the standard procedures. Pedigree analysis is a good guide to performance. I have selected two horses at the Inglis Ready2Race sale which I believe worthy of consideration.

Lot 62 b f More Than Ready – State of Play

More Than Ready needs little introduction and we have commented on his prowess before. A producer of 377 SW almost equally split between males and females and 7230 winners overall. It’s a record that’s hard to beat.  Fastnet Rock is just getting warmed up as a broodmare sire. The cross More Than Ready x Fastnet Rock has already produced 6 SW (SW/R 5.4%). Sejardan is the most successful to date (G2 Todman Slipper,1208m, and G3 Arrowfield Breeders Plate). It is worth noting  that 5/6 of the SW have all won as 2yo. The PRI score of 98.8 suggests this filly could add to the list.

More than Ready: a Champion in every way

Another positive for Lot 62 is her very strong female bottom line which has a 6GFI of 13.6%.  There are some very impressive females in this list: Denise Joy, More Joyous, Sunday Joy, and Joie Denise. These go along with the males Primus and Thorn Park. Plenty of talent here!

Lot 206 b c Epaulette – Juliet’s Princess

 

Epualette has been a constant producer of winners in Australia before he moved to Turkey in October 2021. A producer of 19 SW his SW/R Ratio is 3.51%. The female line has a respectable 6GFI of 7.92%. Churchill Downs is part of the female bottom line. There is also a strong element of Argentinian blood lines. Fairy Magic (triple G1 Winner) and Fain (G1 winner and Argentine Horse of the year in 1986).

The cross Epaulette x More Than Ready has already produced a SW in Hong Kong. Covert Operations scored in the L National Day Cup over 1006m. Lot 206 has a PRI score of 90.4 which suggests a winner.

These Ready to Race events are fun to be at and the Inglis Ready2Race event is no exception.

PRI Analysis Reviewed for 2020 Yearlings

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The importance of a  pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a  more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.

Selections from 2020 Sales

Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and  produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:

Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales

Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.

The selections were made addressing a  number of pedigree relevant issues

  • Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters,  Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
  • For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
  • I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
Conclusions

It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”.  The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses).  This comparison appears in the table below

I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2022

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale comprises three elements. Select Weanlings, General Weanlings and Broodmares. I have examined the pedigrees available of the Select group. Picking weanlings that will grow into good racehorses is obviously more difficult than selecting yearlings. They have to survive (and their upkeep paid for!) for an additional 12 months. Then you might know something. Here are my two selections.

Lot 75 br c  Pierro – Single Note

Pierro is now a well established sire. He has sired 27 SW with a and his colts have topped the fillies 19 to 8. However, his best horse was the mare, Arcadia Queen, winner of the McKinnon Stakes (G1). Overall, his SW/r figure is 5.98%.

The female side of the pedigree is solid without being spectacular. The 6GFI is a healthy 13.04%. The PRI score for Lot 75 is 83.5. I would expect him to be a winner.

Lot 105 b f Night of Thunder – Tashaarok

Night of Thunder has already produced 28 SW. Fillies have prevailed, 19 to 8. His  SW/r ratio of 12.61% is very impressive.  His best horse to date is Thundering Nights, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1). He seems to have the credentials of a stallion that can bring out the best in a strong broodmare lineage and he certainly gets his chance here.

Fanfreluche- one of Northern Dancer’s greatest mares

The key to the female line is the Northern Dancer mare Fanfreluche. US Champion filly in 1979,  she was sold after her 3yo days, for US $1.3m, a record price at that time. The dam of L’Enjoleur, twice Horse of the Year in Canada, and two other G1 winners.  The female line has continued to produce not only great racehorses but great sires. Those well known in Australia are Flying Spur, Encosta de Lago and Holy Roman Emperor. It hasn’t stopped as Russian Revolution has now joined the list. Lot 105 has a PRI score on 99.2. Almost Perfection.

Inglis Great Southern Sale June 2022 has something for everybody.

 

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

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Gold Coast National Yearling Sale 2022

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale is always a great event. This year I have concentrated my search on finding yearlings with high PRI scores and strong female (tail) lines,

Lot 1524 b f Brazen Beau – Za Star

Brazen Beau has made a promising start as a sire. He has recorded 16 SW and a SW/r of 4.69%. His colts have performed better on the racetrack than the fillies-13 to 3. Dosage suggests a middle distance horse so she probably won’t be at her best in the early 2yo races. The female line is strong with a 6GFI  of 16.6%. Probably the best horse in the female line is Lucia Valentina winner of 4 G1 including the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

The cross Brazen Beau x Zabeel has already produced two SW

  • General Beau, winner of Blue Diamond Prelude 1100m (G3)
  • North Pacific, winner of Up and Coming Stakes 1308m (G3)

A PRI Score which is 95.0 indicates a high quality filly.

Lot 1655 b c Swiss Ace – Go Kate Go

Swiss Ace was a very fast race horse. I guess you have to be to win an Oakleigh Plate. At stud he has a useful record of 14 SW and SW/r of 3.22%. Dosage predicts Lot 1655 to be a very fast horse which should be an  early starter. The female line is incredibly strong with a 6GFI of 49.6%!!The female line just rolls with SW and champions. Undoubtedly,  this colt has the strongest female pedigree of any horse in the sale. Commands, Danewin,

Klairessa – start of a dynasty

Octagonal, Deep Field, Shooting to Win, Tristalove etc etc. I examined this female line for a previous client and concluded that the key mare in the line up was Klairessa the dam of both Eight Carat and Habibti. Most breeders followed down the Eight Carat path and bred champion stayers. Habibti , one of Europe’s best ever sprinters also went down this track without much success. So breeding the line to a very fast horse could produce something exceptional.

The cross Swiss Ace x More Than Ready has already produced two SW

  • Little Giant won in Hong Kong 1000m (G3)
  • Top Prospect won in New Zealand 1500m (L)

A perfect PRI score shows this horse is worth a look.

Lot 1745 b c All Too Hard – Mnemonic

We have commented before that the statistics of All Too Hard improve year upon year. He has now a record of 14 SW with SW/r of 3.22%. Colts out number fillies 9 to 5. Dosage predicts a miler- middle  distance horse. The female line of this colt has a very attractive 6GFI of 13.2%. Jetball and Marwina are relatives in the female line.

The cross All Too Hard x Hussonet has already produced a SW

  • Hard to Think won the Singapore Derby 1811m (G3).

With a nearly perfect PRI score this could be an exceptional colt.

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale will have many good horses than the three I have studied. Its an event not to be missed.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

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Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.