Monthly Archives: August 2020

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares? (Part 4)

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Zenyatta  a True Champion Mare. 

Do champion race mares make champion broodmares? Those who have been following my investigations might consider it is an Australian/NZ issue. I can assure you that it is not. The “‘Curse” is operating elsewhere. Zenyatta is an American champion mare. She was victorious in 19 out of 20 starts. Her only loss was a second in her final race when trying for her second Breeders Cup Classic. She was already the only mare to win the Classic, but the second attempt was just a bit too far. Dropping out last, as was her usual way of racing, she flew home but failed by a neck After winning $7.304m  it is time for a new career.

The Breeding Performance of Zenyatta

Zenyatta has been bred to most of the major American sire lines. The results to date have not been encouraging

I cannot fault the breeding plans undertaken for Zenyatta. The PRI scores indicate that the progeny should be competitive racing at stakes level. The breeders have given every chance to this champion race mare to become a champion broodmare. The only problem I see is that crosses to Forli on the dam’s side do not work well, and this must be causing problems. It is surprising that all of the major sire lines chosen seem to be affected. Certainly, the five best horses carrying Forli genes on their dam’s side had no problem “overcoming” it. Bad luck seems to have got in the way of good plans.

                                 Zenyatta with Candy Ride filly

 

 

 I suggest the way forward would be to find a stallion which crosses well with Forli and check that he is still compatible with the rest of the female pedigree. This stallion may not be fashionable but neither was Nathaniel before he met up with Concentric and produced Enable. Should she win her third Arc, Nathaniel, Enable and John Gosden will be even more famous.

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares? (Part 3)

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 The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse.

Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013.  Certainly, a great race mare.

Can Black Caviar break the curse?

Is there a factor which hinders quality race mares producing outstanding racing progeny? A partial answer is in the scientific paper by A J Wlson and A Rambaut, Biol Lett 2008 Apr23; 4(2):173-175.After examining the outcomes of 554 active stallions producing 4476 foals, they concluded:

“Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”

As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy.  However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.

Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)

Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzel filly is the pick of the bunch. It will be  interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviar fans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.

Is Danehill Inbreeding a Pedigree Mistake

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Is Danehill Inbreeding a Pedigree Mistake?

Danehill inbreeding has produced mixed results but is Danehill inbreeding a mistake? For sometime there has been much discussion that Danehill x Danehill would not increase the chances of producing black type horses. The matter appeared to be settled until Guelph (Danehill 2mx3f) won at G1 level. However, may I remind the resurgent believers of the old saying that given a typewriter (computer with Word 2016?), a monkey will eventually produce the entire works of Shakespeare.  I think the excellent work of John Boyce proves that Danehill inbreeding produces less SW than outcrossing..

               Danehill

What does the Data Show?

In the total thoroughbred racehorse population, about 2% will be black type winners. John took the data from 12,640 runners from 26 stallions who had at least 25 or more runners inbred to Danehill.

The percentage of runners achieving black type wins in this overall group was 4.9%. However, among these runners was 1,815 who carried at least one duplication to Danehill. The percentage of SW dropped to 3.2%.  This sample is significant in statistical terms. Inbreeding to Danehill produces less SW than outcrossing.

Danehill yearlings at MM National Sale August 2020

Though inbreeding to Danehill may not be a great choice, it still produces more SW than the average. There are two factors of influence when looking for a yearling inbred to Danehill.

  • The 3 x 3 cross has been the most productive. 3f x 3m has produced 25 SW with (5xG1,2xG2,8xG3,6xL). The 3m x 3m cross has produced 21SW, and 3m x 3f fourteen and its downhill from there.
  • A handful of sires have produced more SW through inbreeding, than outcrossing. Of these only Choisir is represented at this sale.
Can Pedigree Racing Index (PRI) help make a selection?

There are eight yearlings in the Sale that are inbred 3 x 3 to Danehill:

Lot No                              Pedigree                      RI score

1274    b f           Smart Missile-Myanma                 91.7

1371   bf f           Choisir-Watabout                          90.0

1484   br c          Teofilo-Feline Flyer                       74.2

1642   b or br c  Your Song -Stage Performer         66.3

1674   b c          Hallowed Crown – Ailish                 65.0

1407   b c         Epaulette – Bantry House                64.2

1419  b f          Your Song -Breezing Home             59.4

1439  b f          Hallowed Crown -Darby’s Bid          59.2

The PRI scores show the Lots 1274 and 1371 have a good chance of being city winners  perhaps even going higher. The others will probably be struggling. Choisir has a better chance than most Danehill stallions to take advantage of inbreeding to Danehill so he would be worth a look. He is probably the fastest of the eight according to my Dosage evaluation.

PRI is a way of evaluation the sires side of the pedigree. To complete your evaluation you need to look at the dam’s side. And don’t forget the physical evaluation.