Category Archives: Sires

Inglis Easter Sale 2024

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales 2024

The wonderful Inglis Easter Sale is almost here. There are 500 Lots on offer. This is a recovery from 457 in 2023. There is somewhat a changing of the guard. A few old established sires have retired, and fresh youngsters have replaced them. I have selected four yearlings which based on pedigree are worth a look.

Lot 27 (b c Maurice – Fenway)

Maurice has produced to date 24 SW. Colts outnumber fillies 2 to 1. SW/r is 3.88%.

The cross of Maurice to the High Chaparral female line has already produced 2 SW.

  • Shigeru Park Ruby won a G2 fillies race in Japan over1406m.
  • Noah “N” Deal won L Tattersall’s Crown over 2113m.

Maurice: Six G1 Victories

The female line comes down through Denise’s Joy and is both prolific and high class. Six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.6%. There isn’t enough room in the catalogue. High achievers such as Primus, Thorn Park, Bentley Biscuit and Ego have been left out. Lot 27 has a PRI score of 97.5. Black Type territory.

 

Lot 28 ( b c Maurice – Fifteen Aria )

Following on the comments on Lot 27, Lot 28 comes from an interesting female line. The cross Maurice with the Danehill stallion Fastnet Rock has produced one SW.

  • Danon Ayers Rock won a L race in Japan over 1811m as a 2yo.

The female line of Lot 28 has a very impressive 6GFI of 22.4%. The cross to O’Reilly raises a few yellow flags. Last Tycoon crosses sometimes fail to achieve a breeder’s expectations – but sometimes they make a champion. A PRI score of 88.8 somewhat reflects this.

Lot 414 ( b c Exceed and Excel -Allez Bien )

With Exceed and Excel being rested from further stud duties, this is a chance of owning one of his last progenies. The sire of 317 SW, it’s a good reason. Exceed and Excel has SW/r of 4.09%. The cross to O’Reilly has already produced two SW.

Exceed and Excel: sire line of 317 SW

  • Dublin Don was the winner of the G3 Pago Pago Stakes over1208m as a 2yo.
  • Invictus Spirit won the L Starlight Stakes over1107m.

The female line of Lot 414 has a very encouraging 6GFI of 13.6%. The PRI score a healthy 94.2.

Lot 498 (ch c Per Incanto – Dreamlife)

Per Incanto had only a modest record as a racehorse. However, he seems to be making up for it as a sire. A SW/r ratio of 4.91 is up with the best of them. Of his 28 SW the best known is the Newmarket Handicap winner Roch ‘N’ Horse. The cross to Danroad has produced one winner.

  • Lost and Running was successful in the G2 Workwear Premier Stakes 1208m.

The female line has a quite acceptable 6GFI of 5.31%. Lot 498 a PRI score on 98.3

The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is always a great event If you can be there, good luck.

 

Inglis Ready 2 Race

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Reay to race sales such as the Inglis Ready 2 Race are becoming increasingly popular. Yearling auction sales may offer the buyer a cheaper product, but uncertainty still exists about a yearling’s racing ability. The preparation routine can remove some of the factors-but not all of them. There are 226 Lots on offer. I have selected five yearlings which based on pedigree and PRI scores are worthy of consideration.

Lot 76 b or br c So You Think – Dora’s Ready

The cross So You Think and More Than Ready has produced one SW. Cognito won

So You Think: 10xG1 winner now Champion sire

 

G2 Wellington Guineas. The 4m x 4m matching of Nijinsky should produce no problems. Three SW have this cross. The PRI score is 99.2

Lot 93 b c Deep Field – Forfeiture

Deep Field when matched with Commands mares has produced three SW.

Deep Field: New on the block 22 SW already

  • Cosmic Force won the G2 prestigious Pago Pago and Roman Consul Stakes (1200 & 1100m)
  • Sky Command the G2 Navision (1200m)
  • Rozita two L races over 1400m

The female line is exceptionally strong anchored by the champion mare Denise Joy (Sunday Joy, Tuesday Joy, Joie Denise  etc.) PRI score 94.6.

Lot 140 br g So You Think – Majestic Flute

The cross So You Think and Redoute’s Choice and has produced five very impressive SW.

  • Inference winner G1 Canterbury Guineas (1900m)
  • D’argento winner G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m)
  • Fasika winner G2 Saphire Stakes, G3 Wenona Girl Quality (both 1208m)
  • Rocket By winner G3 Sydney Stakes (1208m)
  • Illation winner two L stakes (1408,1610m

 

Overall the cross has a SW/runners 5.49%. The above shows the versatility of So You Think as a sire. He can produce anything! PRI score 96.0

Lot 160 b c Deep Field – Nakataan

Two SW have been produced by the cross of Deep Field to Zabeel.

  • Dig Deep G2 Karakatta Plate (WA Premier 2yo race of 1200m)
  • Sweet Ride G3 San Domenico Stakes 1107m.

The female line is useful and contains Becrux a G1 winner in Canada. The PRI score for Lot 160 is 97.7

Lot 212 b c All Too Hard – Tangerine

The mating of All Too Hard to an Encosta de Lago mare has paid off big time.Alligator Blood is already a five time G1 winner and who will bet against him

All Too Hard : good racehorse and sire. Impecable female line

getting more. Lot 212 has an almost identical  pedigee: Inbreedig to Last Tycoon 4f-3f  and Rolls 4m-4f is matched by Alligator Blood 4m-4f and 4m-4f.

Attendance at the Inglis Ready 2 Race is an interesting experience.

 

Good Luck.

PRI Analysis Reviewed for 2020 Yearlings

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The importance of a  pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a  more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.

Selections from 2020 Sales

Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and  produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:

Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales

Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.

The selections were made addressing a  number of pedigree relevant issues

  • Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters,  Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
  • For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
  • I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
Conclusions

It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”.  The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses).  This comparison appears in the table below

I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

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Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

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The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

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So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

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The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.

 

The Breeding Season 2021

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The new breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere is underway. Most breeders have probably made their selection, but for those who haven’t read on. There are many books and web sources providing information on breeding thoroughbreds. I won’t expand on this here, but during the last few years I have covered a few breeding issues in my blogs. These issues are rarely canvassed by others but should be part of the selection mix.

Are Stallion Fees a Reliable Predictor of a Foal’s Prize-winning Potential?

This matter is covered in March 2021. The answer given by the scientific work of A J Wilson and A Rambaut (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) 173-175) is a definite no. You should not evaluate a stallion on his racetrack performance or that of his relations, but on its pedigree. Sometimes they are both good, but sometimes one is way ahead of the other. The real issue is how a stallion and mare’s pedigrees will fit together. These comments do not necessarily apply to those breeders whose aim is to make money using the formula best to the best and hope for the best. Someone will always pay big money for the progeny resulting from implementation of this plan.

Beware The Danehill Cross

A quote by John Boyce says it all “Top-Class racehorses inbred to Danehill have been conspicuous by their absence”. My limited investigation set out in August 2020, confirms this view.  Mares carrying Danehill or his son’s lines are now the preeminent pedigree lines in Australian mares. Crossing them to any Danehill line stallions requires a great deal of thought, investigation, and care. These Danehill problems spill over to some extent to the batch of Danehill family line stallions. In my view there are better options in the next breeding season for Danehill mares. The compatibility problems will decrease as the Danehill genes move to the right of the pedigree and become less important.

Don’t believe that Brothers and Sisters are the same

Octagonal: Mighty Racehorse, good Sire; full Brother Columbia only a good Sire

Quite often you hear or read that such and such is a good choice because its brother/sister was such a good horse. If such a conclusion is reached because of a deep pedigree analysis it may have come validity. However, I have already explained why full brothers are different and as for brother/sister? One is XY and the XX. How different can you get?

Be Philosophical about Disappointment

Finally, even with all the best preparation in the world, you must be prepared for disappointment.  Recently, never has there been a more striking example as this. Mount Fuji (Snitzel – Ichihara) was a $2.8m yearling. After a racing record of 4 starts and results of 0-1-1 $20,850 the horse sold at auction for $75,000. Why the fall from grace?

On my system it had a superb pedigree with a PRI score of 99.3. This puts it in multiple G1 status in my Library. No doubt all the pre-sale veterinary checks gave the yearling a clean bill of health. Which makes us look for things that are not easy if not impossible to measure. Every mammal has a biological, genetically controlled, clock. That’s why we age. But throughout life it can also regulate physiological factors such as arthritis, immune response, breathing controls and general health well-being.  There are also psychological factors at work. Perhaps he didn’t really want to be a racehorse? A herd animal, perhaps he didn’t want to be an Alpha?

Mount Fuji might now find his mark at the $75k level of competition. For the new owners I hope he does. For the old owners my commiserations. I would probably given you the same advice you followed. Remember there will soon be the results of the new breeding season to examine

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares ? (Part 5)

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The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.

Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)

Race Track Performance

Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.

Arcadia Queen-great race mare

Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)

This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.

Stallion Selection

Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.  I am Invincible is considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.

Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)

In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.

                                      Black Caviar Breeding History

According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case.  Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!

 

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2021 (Part 1 )

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th -5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have organized my deliberations into two parts.

Inglis Southern Sale Part 1 Weanlings

Purchasing a weanling has the advantage that the horse is obviously older than a yearling and looks more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. The disadvantage is that you will usually pay more for it.  There are two weanlings in this Sale that appeal to me on analysis of their pedigrees. I consider they are worth looking at to assess their physical characteristics before considering a purchase.

Lot 82 b f Toronado – Morwell

Toronado (High Chaparral – Wana Doo) was anointed joint 3yo world champion colt with a record of 2xG1, G2, G3, L). He is off to a good start as a sire with 14 SW to date and a strike rate of SW/R of 3.76%.

Royal Academy: an incredible 155 SW as broodmare sire

Morwell (Royal Academy – Marwell Lady) wasn’t hopeless on the racetrack. Although she did not win, she had four starts for three seconds. Her female line with a 6GFI of 6.5 is encouraging. The most accomplished horse in this line was Stage Hit (Century – Oh Calcutta) who won 2xG1 and 2xG2. If I remember right, she was trained by Bart Cummings when she won the Edward Manifold Stakes.

The cross Toronado x Royal Academy has already produced the L stakes winner. Laverrod (Toronado –Demasheen). This horse won the Hareeba Stakes (1208m). A PRI score of 85.8 tells us that she has a pedigree to win in the city.

Lot 208 b c Iffraaj – The Kipling Girl

Iffraaj (Zafonic – Pastorale) was essentially a sprinter on the racetrack. He was first in three G2 races over 7f, and second in the G1 July Cup. The is the preeminent race for sprinters in the UK. At stud his sire line has produced 89 SW with a SW/R score of 5.49%. For comparison Redoute’s Choice has a SW/R ratio of 4.60%.   Some of Iffraaj’s progenies have won beyond sprint distances. Gingernuts (Iffraaj – Double Elle) won both the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and NZ Derby (2400m), at G1 level.

Iffraaj: sire of both sprinters and stayers

The Kipling Girl (High Chaparral – Mrs Kipling) comes from a strong female family. Her 6GFI is 11.3. She was successful on the race track.

The cross Iffraaj x High Chaparral has produced a G1 winner Wynspelle (Iffraaj – Western Star), winner of the prestigious Captain Cook Stakes (1610m). The pedigree is bristling with SW. Of the first 14 horses in this colt’s pedigree, 9 are SW.A PRI score of 89.2 puts this horse in the winner’s category

The Inglis Great Southern Sale may be delayed but if you are buying or selling horses its worth your attendance

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

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MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sales

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale has 615 yearlings to go under the hammer. Like most sales there is plenty of untested sires and a few that have more than proved their mettle. For those who have followed my suggestions you will note that I like More than Ready as a broodmare sire. He is currently leading the Australian Broodmare sires list with a w/r ratio of 47.2. Don’t get confused with sires listed by stake money won. In the  days of mega prize money on a few select races these lists are pretty meaningless. Overall, he has a SW/R ratio of 4.95%. When matched to All Too Hard it climbs to 6.98%. All Too Hard has steadily improved his ranking to reach number 4 (by w/r). The cross All Too Hard to More Than Ready is worth following up. It has already produced three SW

• Forbidden Love (All Too Hard – Juliet’s Princess) G1 Surround Stakes,
• Wellington (All Too Hard – Mihiri) G1 Chairman’s Surprise Sprint in Hong Kong,
• Outrageous (All Too Hard – Fit and Ready) G3 over 1509m.

All Too Hard Sire and Broodmare Sire More Than Ready

There are four horses available in that category in the Sale. All are worth considering

Lot 1456 b f All Too Hard – More Graceful
More Graceful won one race in five starts. Lot 1456 has a PRI Score is 97.1 and a 6GFI 7.45. She is essentially an outcross but shares an inbreeding to the brother and sister combination Northern Dancer-Spring Adieu (4m x 4f). Danehill 3f x 4m remains a concern for me but it hasn’t affected the PRI score unduly

Lot 1575 b or br c All Too Hard – Spice Temple.
Although unraced the mare has shown she can throw winners. Lot 1575 has a PRI Score of 95.4 and his female line 6GFI is 9.87. In this line there are two VRC Derby winners; Redding and Nothin’ Leica Dane.

Lot 1785 b f All Too Hard – Gigi Girl
Three wins over a bit of distance points to All Too Hard being a useful match. The filly has a PRI score of 96.7 with a 6GFI of 12.71. This figure is up with the best. Not surprising when you list some of her ancestors. Apart from those named in the catalogue you can add Benicio, Romneya, and Ortensia.

Lot 2016 b or br c All Too Hard – Just for Naara                                                    Mare unraced but has produced a good winner. The colt has a PRI Score of 86.3 and a female line 6GFI 6.67. There a bit of explanation needed here. This is a very fertile female line. There are 599 descendants and good horses are rather rare in most of the pedigree. However, around Ciboulette and her daughter Franfreluche by Northern Dancer, sparks begin to fly. Frafreluche became US Champion 3yo filly of the Year. From her line came Grand Luxe, Krupt, Flying Spur, Encosta De Lago, and a host of others. Just for Naara is in the thick of these.

                      Exceed and Excel Super Sire

Lot 1422 b c Exceed and Excel – Looking for Love

Exceed and Excel is a worldwide power with his sire line producing 216 SW with a SW/R of 4.23%. He is regarded as primarily a sire of sprinters. However, in his top ten hoses of his sire line there is a scattering of SW victories over 1800 or longer. In fact, his best horse Barney Roy (Excelebration – Alina) won at G1 In Germany over 2415m with three other G1 victories. Alina was by Galileo which suggest Exceed and Excel can pick up staying blood from the right mares. Lot 1442 has a PRI Score of 90.4 and a 6GFI of 7.18. The cross Exceed and Excel with Street Cry mares has produced two SW. September Run (G1 Coolmore Classic 1208m) and Promotions (L Canberra Guineas 1409m).

There will be plenty of good horses sold at the Gold Coast National Yearling sale so good luck. I will be there too.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021

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For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.

People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.

Things to look for in a broodmare

Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is

  • A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
  • If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.

I also like to look at the 6GFI (Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..

Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.

Lot 404 Friendly Donna (Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas

Friendly Donna had a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.

All Too Hard is currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceed and Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too Hard – Up and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.

Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging, Mannerism and Duporth to name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.

So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire

So You Think has now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405.  A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.

Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)

 

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.

I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta De Lago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.

If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Are Stallion Fees a Predictor of a Foal’s prize-winning Potential?

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Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential. This conclusion was reached by A J Wilson and A Rambaut based on their work published in 2008 (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) :173-175. As few racehorse owners are avid readers of Bio Lett I thought it would be interesting to see if this work measures up against the current leading Australian stallions

Methodology

The Researchers used 554 active stallions and 4476 foals as their database. I have taken the current top ten sires in the Australian premiership list and calculated the racetrack performance of each of the top 10 horses of each sire. Their racing performance was rated as 4 points for a G1 win, 3 points for G2, 2 points for G3 and 1 point for a Listed race. I have called this Total Stakes Wins.

A Stallion service fee was due on each of these horses in the year before foaling. The total fees paid to each of the ten stallions is found by summing that paid for each of these best 10 progeny. The results are set down below in a simple XY scatter graph.

Results for Stallion Fees and Foals Potential

 

The results are given in the form of a scatter plot. A strong correlation would be at best a straight line fit. However, in this case the results are too independently variable to consider putting any straight line to link the points. Thus, I believe this data confirms the findings of A J Wilson and A Rambaut.  Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.

The graph has some degree of relevance. The stallion with the best rating has an Accumulation Service Fee of 198 and a Stake Performance rating of 93. But as time  passes and the data of most of the 10 best horses is now a few years old.  Stallion service fee have also changed. Another thing learned is that you don’t have to pay for expensive sires to get a good foal. Its all in the pedigrees. You still might have to pay big to get that..

Services

Introduction

Whatever way you look at it owning and racing a horse is going to cost you money. There is certainly a payback in terms of enjoyment but this is only significant if it wins or at least runs well. Don’t forget the size of your capital investment is a once off thing. On-going training and maintenance costs probably average over $40,000/year and even if shared are a considerable cost. Before you make a decision for few hundred dollars we can supply services to support your intentions..

Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)

PRI: Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees is a method we have developed to link a horse’s pedigree with its likely racing performance. PRI is a quantitative measurement with the result being expressed as percentage between 0 and 100. This number is compared with our data base of over 300 horses.

PRI is useful in horses in ready to race sales and calculating the likely racing ability of yearlings and progeny from a breeding outcome.

Broodmares and Progeny

For horse breeders PRI is useful tool for choosing a suitable stallion for a mare as it provides a quantitative comparison between options. We can provide a quantitative assessment of any mare using the broodmare indexing system we have built up. Any report can include a six generation female index (6GFI), traditional breeding options such as line-breeding, dosage, breeding history etc.

What are the Costs?

How much you want to spend on the investigation depends on your level of investment. For example, if you are buying do want to want to know the chances of a horse being a winner? Then the cost will be about $300. Do you want to rank the best of five you are considering buying at a sale? It will cost about $1,000. Do you want to know which stallion to put a mare to? Then the first question is how much do you want to pay for a service fee and how far do you want to ship the mare. The cost will be about $500 for one stallion and $1,000 for three possibilities. A report can be tailor made to your requirements.

All our investigations are confidential and independent – we have no allegiance to any third party.

 

If you are interested in the services that we offer you can  phone Dr Bob on 0417540698.or contact us through either our Contacts Page or E-mail our abjjem@bigpond.com.

 

 

Can a Cheap Horse be a Stakes Winner?

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Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.

The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.

Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)

Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)

This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score.    She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1

Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)

He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score.  His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.

Broodmare Sires

Pentire is the broodmare sire of Opalescence. His SW/R is 4.6% which is low but not hopeless compared with other broodmare sires in NZ, Northern Hemisphere, and Australia. (See Table 2). The same applies to  Danzero, the broodmare sire of Paniagua.

Other Pedigree Examination Tools

Oasis Dream

Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert.  Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross.  Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses.  But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.

Conclusions

Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”