The importance of a pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.
Selections from 2020 Sales
Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:
Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales
Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.
The selections were made addressing a number of pedigree relevant issues
- Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters, Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
- For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
- I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”. The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses). This comparison appears in the table below
I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.
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