Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale 2022

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale is always a great event. This year I have concentrated my search on finding yearlings with high PRI scores and strong female (tail) lines,

Lot 1524 b f Brazen Beau – Za Star

Brazen Beau has made a promising start as a sire. He has recorded 16 SW and a SW/r of 4.69%. His colts have performed better on the racetrack than the fillies-13 to 3. Dosage suggests a middle distance horse so she probably won’t be at her best in the early 2yo races. The female line is strong with a 6GFI  of 16.6%. Probably the best horse in the female line is Lucia Valentina winner of 4 G1 including the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

The cross Brazen Beau x Zabeel has already produced two SW

  • General Beau, winner of Blue Diamond Prelude 1100m (G3)
  • North Pacific, winner of Up and Coming Stakes 1308m (G3)

A PRI Score which is 95.0 indicates a high quality filly.

Lot 1655 b c Swiss Ace – Go Kate Go

Swiss Ace was a very fast race horse. I guess you have to be to win an Oakleigh Plate. At stud he has a useful record of 14 SW and SW/r of 3.22%. Dosage predicts Lot 1655 to be a very fast horse which should be an  early starter. The female line is incredibly strong with a 6GFI of 49.6%!!The female line just rolls with SW and champions. Undoubtedly,  this colt has the strongest female pedigree of any horse in the sale. Commands, Danewin,

Klairessa – start of a dynasty

Octagonal, Deep Field, Shooting to Win, Tristalove etc etc. I examined this female line for a previous client and concluded that the key mare in the line up was Klairessa the dam of both Eight Carat and Habibti. Most breeders followed down the Eight Carat path and bred champion stayers. Habibti , one of Europe’s best ever sprinters also went down this track without much success. So breeding the line to a very fast horse could produce something exceptional.

The cross Swiss Ace x More Than Ready has already produced two SW

  • Little Giant won in Hong Kong 1000m (G3)
  • Top Prospect won in New Zealand 1500m (L)

A perfect PRI score shows this horse is worth a look.

Lot 1745 b c All Too Hard – Mnemonic

We have commented before that the statistics of All Too Hard improve year upon year. He has now a record of 14 SW with SW/r of 3.22%. Colts out number fillies 9 to 5. Dosage predicts a miler- middle  distance horse. The female line of this colt has a very attractive 6GFI of 13.2%. Jetball and Marwina are relatives in the female line.

The cross All Too Hard x Hussonet has already produced a SW

  • Hard to Think won the Singapore Derby 1811m (G3).

With a nearly perfect PRI score this could be an exceptional colt.

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale will have many good horses than the three I have studied. Its an event not to be missed.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

Aside

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

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The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.

 

Inglis Ready to Race Sale October 2021

The catalogue for the Inglis Ready to Race October 2021 is now available. Ready to race sales have advantages over conventional yearling sales. The horses are broken in, fit to race and prospective buyers can see the horse’s action from their breeze up videos. There is also a record of the time they are capable of running. You will probably pay more dollars for this information. The advantage of seeing a horse run should not be underestimated. Those who have been following my posts will know that I selected fourteen yearlings during the 2019-2020 sales period. These horses are now 3yo. Of the fourteen, all have been named, but only 6 have started in a race.  Of these, three have won and another placed. For the other eight, their 2yo career is over. Dreams of a Golden Slipper triumph evaporated. Of the one hundred and eighty-five 2yo on offer at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale I have looked for fast horses with PRI back up.

Dosage and Fast Horses

The Dosage system attempts to put a numerical analysis on the pedigree of a horse which is based on its Speed and Stamina. For those interested I would recommend Steve Roman’s book “Dosage Pedigree and Performance”. The data can be utilized in a number of ways. One choice is to establish a Dosage Index (DI) which is simply a measure of speed to stamina.  The Table shows the range of values for the DI for a number of races as well as for champion sprinters in Australia in the last ten years or so. The data can also be arranged to provide a value for Centre of Distribution (CD). This figure marks the balancing point of a pedigree between speed and stamina and it is displayed by a number between +2 and -2. A positive number shows speed outranks stamina and a negative number stamina out ranks speed. The Table below sets out some DI and CD values of relevance.

It is clear from the data that the range of values for speed horses, (2yo in the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond, and that of Champion Australian sprinters) show different dosage profiles from the horses that have won the Melbourne Cup and the UK St Leger.

Dosage Ratings of Horses at the Inglis Sale

I did not measure the DI and CD values of all the horses in the sale. I cut the list to those where there was a reasonable quantity of data available and selected three horses for comment. Lots 93.45 and 79 should have exceptional speed. In fact, lot 93 is more like a quarter horse. However, the low PRI score probably means it could run out of breath rather quickly. Lots 45 and 79 have strong PRI scores to back up their speed rating. It will be interesting to see how they go. Paper studies are useful but so is the real thing and to see that you need to look at the information provided at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale in October.

 

Longevity of a PRI Score

The Longevity of a PRI Score

A PRI score will change with time, but what is the longevity of a PRI score? Any process that involves statistical methods is only as good as the information in a data base. This particularly true when the data is continually changing. Any method using a data base must be robust enough to accommodate these changes. A data base which involves racehorses is continually changing. Just consider the AEI (Average Earning Index). Every run a horse has will change its AEI value. Similarly, every time a horse wins a Stakes Race, the pedigree compatibility factors will also change. The change will be almost imperceptible for a cross such as Northern Dancer x Mr Prospector. But what about the lesser lights?

Up Dated Results

To test the robustness my analysis system I re-examined the data entered in my first post of 2.5 years ago (Yearling Prices and Racing Ability: the rewards are hard to find). The updated results are given in the table below:

*PRI Score measured Feb 2019

**PRI Score measured Aug 2012

***PRI Band/Medium AEI is from Flavone Private data base. For example, Honesty Prevails with a PRI score of 93.8 lies in the data base band of PRI scores 95-90 which have a medium AEI value of $110k.

Conclusions

Firstly, as a prelude I need to state that the examination of seven horses is hardly statistically significant, but my conclusions are backed up by a considerable amount of data I have accumulated in over 20 years researching the subject. Secondly, breeding and/or finding good horses is an inexact science with a bit of art thrown in. For example, within PRI bands there is considerable variation in AEI values. However, I would predict that more likely than not the AEI figure is close to what you would expect from a horse with PRI values within that band.

  1. The PRI values measured for these horses in 2019 have not changed dramatically from those measured in 2021. The longevity of a PRI score held up well.
  2. In their racing career all these horses failed to return anywhere near their purchase price.
  3. The link between PRI score and AEI is reasonable for these seven horses. What was predicted is reasonably close to what was achieved.
  4. A phone call to me in 2019 would have saved some people a lot of money!

 

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sales

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale has 615 yearlings to go under the hammer. Like most sales there is plenty of untested sires and a few that have more than proved their mettle. For those who have followed my suggestions you will note that I like More than Ready as a broodmare sire. He is currently leading the Australian Broodmare sires list with a w/r ratio of 47.2. Don’t get confused with sires listed by stake money won. In the  days of mega prize money on a few select races these lists are pretty meaningless. Overall, he has a SW/R ratio of 4.95%. When matched to All Too Hard it climbs to 6.98%. All Too Hard has steadily improved his ranking to reach number 4 (by w/r). The cross All Too Hard to More Than Ready is worth following up. It has already produced three SW

Forbidden Love (All Too Hard – Juliet’s Princess) G1 Surround Stakes,
Wellington (All Too Hard – Mihiri) G1 Chairman’s Surprise Sprint in Hong Kong,
Outrageous (All Too Hard – Fit and Ready) G3 over 1509m.

All Too Hard Sire and Broodmare Sire More Than Ready

There are four horses available in that category in the Sale. All are worth considering

Lot 1456 b f All Too Hard – More Graceful
More Graceful won one race in five starts. Lot 1456 has a PRI Score is 97.1 and a 6GFI 7.45. She is essentially an outcross but shares an inbreeding to the brother and sister combination Northern Dancer-Spring Adieu (4m x 4f). Danehill 3f x 4m remains a concern for me but it hasn’t affected the PRI score unduly

Lot 1575 b or br c All Too Hard – Spice Temple.
Although unraced the mare has shown she can throw winners. Lot 1575 has a PRI Score of 95.4 and his female line 6GFI is 9.87. In this line there are two VRC Derby winners; Redding and Nothin’ Leica Dane.

Lot 1785 b f All Too Hard – Gigi Girl
Three wins over a bit of distance points to All Too Hard being a useful match. The filly has a PRI score of 96.7 with a 6GFI of 12.71. This figure is up with the best. Not surprising when you list some of her ancestors. Apart from those named in the catalogue you can add Benicio, Romneya, and Ortensia.

Lot 2016 b or br c All Too Hard – Just for Naara                                                    Mare unraced but has produced a good winner. The colt has a PRI Score of 86.3 and a female line 6GFI 6.67. There a bit of explanation needed here. This is a very fertile female line. There are 599 descendants and good horses are rather rare in most of the pedigree. However, around Ciboulette and her daughter Franfreluche by Northern Dancer, sparks begin to fly. Frafreluche became US Champion 3yo filly of the Year. From her line came Grand Luxe, Krupt, Flying Spur, Encosta De Lago, and a host of others. Just for Naara is in the thick of these.

                      Exceed and Excel Super Sire

Lot 1422 b c Exceed and Excel – Looking for Love

Exceed and Excel is a worldwide power with his sire line producing 216 SW with a SW/R of 4.23%. He is regarded as primarily a sire of sprinters. However, in his top ten hoses of his sire line there is a scattering of SW victories over 1800 or longer. In fact, his best horse Barney Roy (Excelebration – Alina) won at G1 In Germany over 2415m with three other G1 victories. Alina was by Galileo which suggest Exceed and Excel can pick up staying blood from the right mares. Lot 1442 has a PRI Score of 90.4 and a 6GFI of 7.18. The cross Exceed and Excel with Street Cry mares has produced two SW. September Run (G1 Coolmore Classic 1208m) and Promotions (L Canberra Guineas 1409m).

There will be plenty of good horses sold at the Gold Coast National Yearling sale so good luck. I will be there too.

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2021

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale almost concludes the run of the large yearling sales in Australia for this year. Some yearlings who failed to meet the entrance criteria for the major sales are offered. There are also some which did meet the criteria but just weren’t ready for sale earlier in the year.  If you are looking to buy a horse that can win a Cox Plate then be a starter in the Arc D’Triomphe all for $40,000, this isn’t the place to look. However, if your goal is to buy a horse that can compete in your local Country Cups, you are looking in the right place.

We narrowed the 339 Lots on offer down to 15 and have chosen 2 which meet our selection rules. The number one rule is to uncover enough information to improve the chances of selecting a good individual on pedigree.

Lot 44 b f Starcraft – Sleek Anitra

The Sire

Starcraft has produced 40 SW:22 male and 18 females. He is from the Nureyev dynasty (3077 SW) which has produced some imposing horses. Lonhro, Octagonal, Miseque (dual Breeders Cup mile winner), Verry Elleegant, Almond Eye, and Makybe Diva-before we get to the lesser lights. Starcraft was an excellent racehorse.

  Starcraft

There aren’t too many sires standing in Australia that have won three G1 of the ilk of AJC Derby, French Prix du Moulin de Longchamps, and the English Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. On the face of it he appears to be underutilised. Most of his best horses are winners in the range 1200-1600m

The Mare

You can’t improve much on two wins from two starts both as a 2yo. Sleek Anitra’s second win was at Flemington over 1400m. At first glance her performance at stud isn’t that impressive: seven foals. four to race, and only one winner. However, one can find excuses.

Served three times to Anacheeva that is not a good match. Anacheeva has proved to be anything but that at stud. He has one SW out of 111 starters (0.90%). The cross to Fastnet Rock has not produced any SW in 5 attempts and the cross Anabaa x Fastnet Rock no SW in 25 attempts. Her 6GFI of 9.1% shows she should be capable of producing better.

The Cross

The cross Starcraft x Fastnet Rock has already produced two SW from 29 runners (6.9%). Our Crown Mistress (Starcraft – Barangaroo) has won two listed races (1400/1300m). Pearl Star (Starcraft – Pearl of the Sea) won a listed race over 1100m as a 2yo. She has since had a foal (Cumberbatch) that has won at both Flemington and Sandown. This is another indication that the female line has strength. The cross Starcraft – Sleek Anitra has a PRI score of 82.5 which puts her in the winners’ category.

Lot 286 b f Magnus – Light Rose

The Sire

Magnus has produced 19 SW:12 male and 7 females.  Being part of the Danehill line through his sire Flying Spur, has probably limited his opportunities with so much Danehill blood in the local broodmare population. Magnus has a SW/R ratio of 3.47%. Most of his runners are sprinters.

The Mare

The mare Light Rose never started, but the commencement of her stud duties has been promising. She has produced Magnesium Rose a full sister to Lot 286. Magnesium Rose has won three times, including a win over triple SW mare Teleplay and continues to race. Her 6GFI is 4.37% and her female line includes the 6 times G1 winner Durbridge. His victories include the AJC Derby and the Australian Cup.

The Cross

The cross Magnus – Royal Academy has already produced a L SW winner Front Page (Magnus – Stacey Lee) in the A R Creswick Stakes 1208m. Lot 286 has a PRI value 0f 88.8; definitely in winners’ territory.

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has plenty of interesting horses. Sorting them out is the task.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021

For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.

People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.

Things to look for in a broodmare

Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is

  • A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
  • If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.

I also like to look at the 6GFI (Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..

Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.

Lot 404 Friendly Donna (Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas

Friendly Donna had a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.

All Too Hard is currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceed and Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too HardUp and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.

Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging, Mannerism and Duporth to name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.

So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire

So You Think has now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405.  A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.

Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)

 

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.

I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta De Lago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.

If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Finding a Golden Slipper winner

The 2021 event may be over but how do we go about finding a Golden Slipper Winner? I am a firm believer that the way to the future is pointed by examining the past. The Golden Slipper was first run in 1957 and was won by a very good horse in Todman. Many of the earlier winners were also very good horses/champions who went forward to a successful racing career.  These horses could obviously sprint but their ability allowed them to extend their winning distances. Vain (14 Starts) won 12G1 including the Champagne Stakes (1600m) by 12 lengths. Sky High (55 Starts) won the VRC

There was a Sky High once. When comes such another?

Derby and AJC Epsom Handicap among his 26 rated G1 wins. Luskin Star (17 Starts) won the AJC Triple Crown and the Caulfield Guineas had 13 victories and 3 seconds. His only unplaced run was in the 1978 Cox Plate in which he was favourite to Family of Man. But times are changing. The winners of the Slipper over the last 10 Years have been specialist sprinters with short racing careers with a single exception. If you want to find a Golden Slipper winner it helps to look in the right direction.

Analysis of the field of fifteen runners in the 2011 Slipper

Do you need to buy an expensive yearling?

To answer that question, we need to go back to the year of the yearling sales of 2020. Seventeen yearlings sold at $1m or more at Australia’s two principal Australian Sales. Not one made the 2021 Slipper field. In fact, as of now, 14 have not yet started their racing careers and the three that have run have amassed $71,000 of stake money. This suggests they could not win the Slipper even if they had started. There is nothing wrong with these horses, their time may come. But not in the 2021 Slipper. Buying expensive horses may not be the answer. There is hope for those on a more modest budget

What type of Sire to look for?

Of the fifteen runners, five were by sires in the top 10 of the current general premiership lists. Eight were in the top ten of the 2yo sires with Not a Single Doubt the only sire to appear in both lists.  The big four, I am Invincible, Snitzel, Written Tycoon and Zoustar, are not in the top ten of the current year’s 2yo sires list. We are looking for a yearling that will be a successful early runner so pay more attention to the 2yo sires list. If you are looking for a Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate, or Derby winner then these comments are not relevant to you.

What does the pedigree of Stay Inside (Extreme Choice – Nothin’ Leica Storm) tell us?

There isn’t much space to go into detail here but here are a few points

  • Extreme Choice has excellent credentials for a sire of fast horses. In 8 Starts 2 G1wins: Blue Diamond Stakes and Moir Stakes (1000m) and third in an Oakleigh Plate. Wonderful credentials for a sire of sprinters.
  • Nothin’ Leica was paced seven times in 13 starts and won over 1600m, She is backed by an array of strong staying blood: Cerreto G1 Italian Derby, Gay Mecene G1 winner in France over 2400m The rest of the male lines are virtually Household names.

Certainly, a great cross of speed over stamina.

Staying Inside was purchased for $200,000 and next year there will be a winner of the 2022 Golden Slipper. Remember at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sales of 1978 a horse was passed in at $6,500 against a reserve of $8,000. The horse? Luskin Star. Hope for Everyone!

 

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021

The time honored Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021 will soon be upon us. The old tree may no longer be there, but the social comradery certainly will be. The Sale is skewed towards the Australian sires currently at the top of the premiership list. Of the 466 lots on offer, 55% come from the first 15 sires in the 2021 premiership table. Even though there isn’t a lot of variety, there are some interesting horses to look at. A contractual obligation limits the comments I can make in certain areas but I am free to report on some of my observations.

Japanese bred horses have a great record in Australia from very limited opportunities. Melbourne and Caufield Cups, Blue Diamond Stakes and a couple of Toorak Handicaps aren’t a bad record.  I have selected a Japanese bred horse by Deep Impact, and a yearling by More Than Ready as horses worth looking at.

Lot 103 (b or br c More Than Ready – Street ‘Em Shelia)

More than Ready is a remarkable sire and I have made comments about him before. He now ranks 43 in the world sire list and his sire line has 316 SW with 42 G1.  His progeny can win at any distance between 1000-2500m, depending what genes the dam brings to the table. The cross between sire lines More Than Ready X Street Cry has already produced three SW.

More Than Ready-Champion Sire for many years

  • Sesar (G2 Roman Consul Stakes 1100m and G3 Ken Russel Memorial 1200)
  • Miss Admiration (G3 Colin Stephens Stakes 2400m and G3 Japan Racing Assoc 2500m)
  • Mokarris (L Rose Bowl Stakes GB 6f)

Street ‘Em Shelia is part of a strong female family with a 6G female index of 11.9%. Green Dancer (3 G1, sire of 90 SW) and Authorized (joint world champion 3yo of 2007) are part of the female family. A PRI score of 96.0 points to a winner.

Lot 180 (b c Deep Impact – Admire Pink)

Deep Impact-World’s Number One Sire

Deep Impact is currently the world’s leading sire, a position he occupied in 2020. The cross between the sire lines of Deep Impact and King Kamehameha has a SW/R ratio of 14.3% and G1W/R ratio of 3.6%.  (For comparison a contemporary Australian combination is Redoute’s Choice x Encosta de Lago with SW/R 6.59% and G1W/R 1.5%). The cross Deep Impact X King Kamehameha has produced four SW. The best is Wagnerian winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun Derby.

Admire Pink comes from a high-class female family with a 6GFI of 12.6%. Her position in the female family is further away from the black type action than I would like. Nevertheless, she is still part of the family. With a PRI score of 92.1, Lot 180 is worth a look.

While you are at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021, stop to have a look at Lot 257. This filly (Snitzel Crystal Flute) is bred on a Delta Cross about which we have made comments before. Soon, a horse bred on this type of cross is likely to be a super star. The question is which one?

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2021

The Inglis Premier Yearling Sale is the second sale of their selling season. There are 804 lots on offer from 119 sires. A quick scan of the catalogue shows the dominance of Danehill in the Australian breeding industry. Almost 17% of the lots are inbreed to Danehill in generations 2-4. This cross can produce winners but it would be wise to go deep into the pedigree for reassurance. Both Lord Kanaloa  and Into Mischief are strong representatives from overseas. I have selected two yearlings worthy of a look.

Lot 111 ( c More Than Ready – Kid Gloves)

More than Ready ; Great Sire and Broodmare Sire

More than Ready has been and still is a great sire. With 312 SW he is still capable of producing the best anywhere from 1000m to 2500m. He certainly not over the hill as shown by the performance of last year’s G1 Preakness Stakes winner Swiss Skydiver.  Currently rated number 40 in the International Sires list, More Than Ready is matched with Kid Gloves who is a mare from Fastnet Rock that is rated number 6 on the Australian Broodmare sires list. The More than Ready x Fastnet Rock has already  produces two G3 winners ( Ready Set Sail and Global Quest) and a L race winner (The Actuary).A PRI score of 95.0 indicates this colt will be in black type territory.

Lot 129 (f Zoustar – Lanzini)

Zoustar is a young sire on the way up. He is ranked 7 on the Australian sires premiership and produced 16 SW. Currently he appears to be a sire of sprinters; none of his SW progeny have won beyond 1400m. More than Ready is a good fit for him . He currently ranks third in Australian Broodmare sires list and he has 93 SW on

Lowan Star : a rare double AJC and Queensland Oaks

the dam pedigree side. The cross Zoustar x More than Ready has already produced a SW  in Ranting, a G3 winner over1208m.  What provides more encouragement for the future of Lot 129 is the fact that in her dam’s pedigree are two exceptional race mares.

  • Valley of Georgia (G1 Underwood Stakes, G1 AJC Oaks)
  • Lowan Star (G1 double AJC Oaks, Queensland Oaks)

These are two Powerful Mares for any filly to have in her pedigree and to see her the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale is the place to be.

 

Services

Introduction

Whatever way you look at it owning and racing a horse is going to cost you money. There is certainly a payback in terms of enjoyment but this is only significant if it wins or at least runs well. Don’t forget the size of your capital investment is a once off thing. On-going training and maintenance costs probably average over $40,000/year and even if shared are a considerable cost. Before you make a decision for few hundred dollars we can supply services to support your intentions..

Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)

PRI: Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees is a method we have developed to link a horse’s pedigree with its likely racing performance. PRI is a quantitative measurement with the result being expressed as percentage between 0 and 100. This number is compared with our data base of over 300 horses.

PRI is useful in horses in ready to race sales and calculating the likely racing ability of yearlings and progeny from a breeding outcome.

Broodmares and Progeny

For horse breeders PRI is useful tool for choosing a suitable stallion for a mare as it provides a quantitative comparison between options. We can provide a quantitative assessment of any mare using the broodmare indexing system we have built up. Any report can include a six generation female index (6GFI), traditional breeding options such as line-breeding, dosage, breeding history etc.

What are the Costs?

How much you want to spend on the investigation depends on your level of investment. For example, if you are buying do want to want to know the chances of a horse being a winner? Then the cost will be about $300. Do you want to rank the best of five you are considering buying at a sale? It will cost about $1,000. Do you want to know which stallion to put a mare to? Then the first question is how much do you want to pay for a service fee and how far do you want to ship the mare. The cost will be about $500 for one stallion and $1,000 for three possibilities. A report can be tailor made to your requirements.

All our investigations are confidential and independent – we have no allegiance to any third party.

 

If you are interested in the services that we offer you can  phone Dr Bob on 0417540698.or contact us through either our Contacts Page or E-mail our abjjem@bigpond.com.

 

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

The MM Yearling Sales Catalogue lists 1273 yearlings. It It will soon be underway with a plethora of young unproven sires, some sires on their way up and some on their way down. I won’t attempt to review them all, even if I had the space. I have carried out a pedigree analysis of a number of interesting horses and set down four that I believe will be superior race horses.

Lot 245 (b f Fastnet Rock-Dreams and Wishes)

Fastnet Rock 19th in World Sires 

Fastnet Rock is rated 19 in the world sires’ premiership, and Galileo is 12 in broodmare sires (by earnings). The combination has produced international winners in America, Europe and Australasia. The score is 20 SW with 8xG1 (5f ,3c) and their offspring have won the Epsom, AJC and Victorian Oaks.  There is no reason to suppose that this filly could not add to the list. The PRI analysis shows an excellent meshing of sires and certainly points to a SW. Her female line goes right back to Rainbird the winner of the 1945 Melbourne Cup

Lot 461 (b c Lord Kanaloa – Laguna Azzurra)

Lord Kanaloa breaks track record at Nakayama

Whenever you see a horse sired by the world’s number 2 sire its useful to take notice. This horse is a three-quarter brother to Tagaloa who won the G1 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes. Unfortunately, he broke down in the spring before he could really show what he was capable of. Lord Kanaloa was a 6xG1 winner himself and was a sprinter-miler. However, his progeny has excelled over more distance. Almond Eye, his best horse, has 8xG1 and the tag of world champion 3yo filly to her credit in addition to two Japan Cups (2400m).

Lot 518 (b f No Nay Never-Ma Mara)

No Nay Never wins G1 in France

Twelve months ago, I expected No Nay Never to do big things. Well, he has been a little slow getting off the mark in Australia although he has increased his SW from 18 to 25 internationally. He has SW winners in USA, UK, Ireland, France, Italy and NZ. These horses have won in the range 1000 -1600m. So, if you are looking for a sprinter this could be your go. No Nay Never’s best horse is Ten Sovereigns who added the July Cup (probably Europe’s most prestigious sprint race) to his SW collection last year. His dam, Seeking Solace, is by Exceed and Excel which makes Lot 518 a three-quarter sister to Ten Sovereigns. With a PRI rating of 95.8%, he is well into Black type territory

Lot 911 (ch c Written Tycoon – Tuscan Sling)

      Written Tycoon-11 G1 winners

Written Tycoon has gone from almost obscurity to a super sire in a few years. His progeny like winning the big races and there have been 11 individual G1 SW. Essentially a sire of sprinters, none of his G1 winners has won beyond 1600m. Tusan Sling is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, ranked number 20 in the list of the world’s leading broodmare sires. His female progeny are very versatile and love throwing classic winners. Epsom Oaks, English Derby, Irish Derby, and Hong Kong Derby -the list goes on. Dosage suggests Lot 911 to be a fast sprinter.

However, I believe that although he may be able to win such races as a young horse, his career could extend into the classic distances, that is until he runs out of puff. The cross of Written Tycoon with Danehill Dancer mares has produced three SWMusic Magnate won the G1 Doomben 10,000, Written Beauty won the G3 Red Roses Stakes and It is Written won three listed races all over 1200m. PRI of 92.1% suggest the mating is genetically sound

There are plenty of excellent yearlings In the MM Sales Catalogue 2021. The task is finding the right ones at the right price.