The Inglis Great Southern Sale comprises three elements. Select Weanlings, General Weanlings and Broodmares. I have examined the pedigrees available of the Select group. Picking weanlings that will grow into good racehorses is obviously more difficult than selecting yearlings. They have to survive (and their upkeep paid for!) for an additional 12 months. Then you might know something. Here are my two selections.
Lot 75 br c Pierro – Single Note
Pierrois now a well established sire. He has sired 27 SW with a and his colts have topped the fillies 19 to 8. However, his best horse was the mare, Arcadia Queen, winner of the McKinnon Stakes (G1). Overall, his SW/r figure is 5.98%.
The female side of the pedigree is solid without being spectacular. The 6GFI is a healthy 13.04%. The PRI score for Lot 75 is 83.5. I would expect him to be a winner.
Lot 105 b fNight of Thunder – Tashaarok
Night of Thunder has already produced 28 SW. Fillies have prevailed, 19 to 8. His SW/r ratio of 12.61% is very impressive. His best horse to date is Thundering Nights, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1). He seems to have the credentials of a stallion that can bring out the best in a strong broodmare lineage and he certainly gets his chance here.
Fanfreluche- one of Northern Dancer’s greatest mares
The key to the female line is the Northern Dancer mare Fanfreluche. US Champion filly in 1979, she was sold after her 3yo days, for US $1.3m, a record price at that time. The dam of L’Enjoleur, twice Horse of the Year in Canada, and two other G1 winners. The female line has continued to produce not only great racehorses but great sires. Those well known in Australia are Flying Spur, Encosta de Lago and Holy Roman Emperor. It hasn’t stopped as Russian Revolution has now joined the list. Lot 105 has a PRI score on 99.2. Almost Perfection.
Inglis Great Southern Sale June 2022 has something for everybody.
Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!
Lot 814 So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel
I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of 5.85%. Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.
Lot 822 Camelot – Rocket Science
Camelotwas an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW
set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares. Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot xFastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m. Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.
Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic
I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed andExcel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeelinfluence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.
The new breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere is underway. Most breeders have probably made their selection, but for those who haven’t read on. There are many books and web sources providing information on breeding thoroughbreds. I won’t expand on this here, but during the last few years I have covered a few breeding issues in my blogs. These issues are rarely canvassed by others but should be part of the selection mix.
Are Stallion Fees a Reliable Predictor of a Foal’s Prize-winning Potential?
This matter is covered in March 2021. The answer given by the scientific work of A J Wilson and A Rambaut (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) 173-175) is a definite no. You should not evaluate a stallion on his racetrack performance or that of his relations, but on its pedigree. Sometimes they are both good, but sometimes one is way ahead of the other. The real issue is how a stallion and mare’s pedigrees will fit together. These comments do not necessarily apply to those breeders whose aim is to make money using the formula best to the best and hope for the best. Someone will always pay big money for the progeny resulting from implementation of this plan.
Beware The Danehill Cross
A quote by John Boyce says it all “Top-Class racehorses inbred to Danehill have been conspicuous by their absence”. My limited investigation set out in August 2020, confirms this view. Mares carrying Danehill or his son’s lines are now the preeminent pedigree lines in Australian mares. Crossing them to any Danehill line stallions requires a great deal of thought, investigation, and care. These Danehill problems spill over to some extent to the batch of Danehill family line stallions. In my view there are better options in the next breeding season for Danehill mares. The compatibility problems will decrease as the Danehill genes move to the right of the pedigree and become less important.
Don’t believe that Brothers and Sisters are the same
Octagonal: Mighty Racehorse, good Sire; full Brother Columbia only a good Sire
Quite often you hear or read that such and such is a good choice because its brother/sister was such a good horse. If such a conclusion is reached because of a deep pedigree analysis it may have come validity. However, I have already explained why full brothers are different and as for brother/sister? One is XY and the XX. How different can you get?
Be Philosophical about Disappointment
Finally, even with all the best preparation in the world, you must be prepared for disappointment. Recently, never has there been a more striking example as this. Mount Fuji (Snitzel – Ichihara) was a $2.8m yearling. After a racing record of 4 starts and results of 0-1-1 $20,850 the horse sold at auction for $75,000. Why the fall from grace?
On my system it had a superb pedigree with a PRI score of 99.3. This puts it in multiple G1 status in my Library. No doubt all the pre-sale veterinary checks gave the yearling a clean bill of health. Which makes us look for things that are not easy if not impossible to measure. Every mammal has a biological, genetically controlled, clock. That’s why we age. But throughout life it can also regulate physiological factors such as arthritis, immune response, breathing controls and general health well-being. There are also psychological factors at work. Perhaps he didn’t really want to be a racehorse? A herd animal, perhaps he didn’t want to be an Alpha?
Mount Fujimight now find his mark at the $75k level of competition. For the new owners I hope he does. For the old owners my commiserations. I would probably given you the same advice you followed. Remember there will soon be the results of the new breeding season to examine
The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.
Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)
Race Track Performance
Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.
Arcadia Queen-great race mare
Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)
This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.
Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.I am Invincibleis considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.
Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)
In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.
Black Caviar Breeding History
According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case. Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!
The Inglis Great Southern Sale will conclude with the offer of 125 Broodmares. It takes much more time to assess a broodmare especially one in foal, than to assess a yearling. Two investigations are needed. First the mare must be assessed on her future capability to deliver a foal that will be a winner. Secondly the pedigree of foal she is carrying must be assessed relating it to the chance of it being a winner. We have carried out an evaluation of two mares lots 463 and 499; both in foal to Street Boss.
Lot 463 ch m Socialista (Served by Street Boss)
Socialista (New Approach – Ambitious Lady) scores 290 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is a way of measuring how her immediate family and herself rate in producing SW. In a sale like this the averageMMIvalue is around 500. However, her 6GFI (six generation female index) is a stellar 22.1%. The difference shows that the female family is a rich producer of SW but that Socialista is not in its strongest vein. Nevertheless, on balance, it is a very good female family. Most of the success is due to the influence of Anna Paola, champion 2 and 3yo filly in Germany three generations back.
Mr Prospector: Sire of 67 SW and a dynasty
New Approach (Galileo – Park Express) a five times G1 winner has recorded eight SW as broodmare sire. Two from Mr Prospector and two from Sunday Silence line stallions. Of the six previous mating of Socialista, only one was to a Mr Prospector line stallion (Street Boss) and it is her only winner.
The cross Street Boss x New Approach has already given a 2yo G3 winner. Heresy (Street Boss – Montsegur) scored over 1208m at her second and only start to date. The foal from Street Boss – Socialista has a PRI score of 91.9 which suggest a winner of high quality
Lot 499 g m Bugaboo (served by Street Boss)
Bugaboo (Mutakddim – Bavarian) scores 640 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is above average. The 6GFI is a healthy 15.8% although there are only 19 horses. Whether this is caused by some inherent fertility fault in the family I haven’t investigated but it is a fact to bear in mind. Bugaboo has apparently completed 4 successful foalings which is good news. House Rules (Distorted Humor –Teamgeist) one of the three SW in the female line, was successful at G2 and G3 level in America. Her pedigree shows 3m x 4m to Mr Prospector. It appears the females cross well with Mr Prospector sire lines and this bodes well for the foal from Street Boss x Bugaboo.
Street Boss: already the sire of 44 SW
In his role as a broodmare sire, Mutakddim has produced 20 SW. Eight (40%) have been from MrProspector line stallions. The cross Street Boss x Mutakddim has already given On the BackStreets (Street Boss – Mutakaway). This filly won two L races over 6.5f. The foal from Street Boss– Bugaboo) has a PRI score of 86.0 so it should be able to win.
The Great Southern Sale has some wonderful horses. I hope you are successful.
The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th – 5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have selected two weanlings of interest, Lots 82 and 208. In my next post (Part 3) I will address the pedigrees of two broodmares in foal, Lots 463 and 499. Firstly, a word about the two broad strategies of breeding racehorses – breeding to sell or race.
Breeding to sell
If you want to breed a horse to make money the strategy is very simple. Go and buy a G1 SW mare off the track and put her to a top stallion. Remember these mares are not cheap. Nor are service fees for top stallions. You don’t need to know much about horses or breeding-just plenty about money management and return on investment. When put in a Sale as a yearling, buyers will pay big money for the progeny especially if it looks strong and healthy. If you have followed my posts, you will understand that this type of mating approach rarely produces a horse that will recover its purchase price in earnings. However, once the purchase has taken place that is no longer the breeder’s concern. From a buyer’s point of view there have been some catastrophic failures.
Eight Carat: Super broodmare of five G1 winners
If the breeder is very lucky, he could purchase a mare who turns out to be a great producer. There aren’t too many of these around
Urban Sea (Melika, Galileo, My Typhoon, Sea the Stars)
Breeding to Race
If, however you want to breed a horse that will win races you need to examine the pedigree of the mare and consider access to a stallion with compatible blood lines. This should be done before purchase. Good planning will considerably improve your chance of success. Things to look for in the mare are the strength of the pedigree, history of racetrack performance of the mare and her immediate family, and breeding performance if any. Any genetic problems that may be passed to the offspring should also be looked for.
When buying a mare, you should ask yourself why is this mare in foal? Is it the result of a carefully crafted breeding plan? Or is it an opportunistic event where the seller hopes that a pregnant mare will sell for a higher price more than a barren one. The real cost of the offspring to you will be a minimum of $20,000 before the hammer falls at the auction. Will the sale recover this money? Purchasing a mare in foal requires considerable investigation. You need to decide if the foal is either going to sell well if you take that option. Or the foal’s pedigree suggests it should be a winner. A PRIscore will help you there.
To provide additional information to answer the question is the pregnancy an opportunistic event we can look at the covering sires in the Inglis Great Southern Sale. There are 47 sires and 29 of them have never sired a SW. Eight have sired less than 10 SW. It can be said that only 10 stallions are established sires. You can draw your own conclusions.
The MM Weanling and Broodmare Sale is about to get underway. In the MM Weanling Sale section there are plenty of lots on offer to meet the need and aspirations of the buyer. The budget can also be met. Weanling sales have the advantage that horses are usually less expensive than those at the yearling sales. The advantage of buying a yearling is that it will look more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. A weanling has more growing to do. It will cost you money while it develops. Having looked at a number of weanling on offer, we have selected two fillies in the MM Weanling Sale that we consider will make successful racehorses.
Lot 78 b f Dubwai – Entisaar
Dubawi was excellent on the track with three wins at G1 level in France and Ireland (7f-1600m). He has 271 SW with a ratio 8.17% SW/R. Gender split is roughly equal. His best female horse was Bonneval (Dubawi – Imposingly, 3xG1, 2xG2, 1xG3).She was the winner of both the NZ and AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes. Dubawi’s progeny have won from 1000m to beyond 2500m with nine out his 10 best horses being miler/stayers.
Dubawirated 18th in World list of international sires
Entisaar (More than Ready – Purrpurriena ) was a G1 winner in South Africa. Her female family has a 6GFIof 4.41% which is reasonable. There is plenty of speed in the female line. Pre Catelan(by Lunchtime) was an exceptionally fast 2yo that won both the Breeders Plate (L) and Silver Slipper (G2).Another family member Tangiers, won three G3 races (1200-1400m).
The cross Dubawi – More than Ready has already produced a G3SW. Run Naan won the Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) in 2017. Dosage shows a middle distance performer but with enough speed to be an early runner. The PRIscore of 92.5 indicates the filly could be something special.
Lot 242 b f Exceed and Excel – Witches
Exceed and Excel is currently 8th on the Australian Sires premiership table and 20th in the International listing .His line has 215 SW with SW/R at 4.25%.His best filly is Guelph (Exceed and Excel – Camarilla, 4xG1,1xG2, 1xG3).His top ten horses can be split equally into sprinters and Miler/Stayers. Certainly a sire of world status.
Lohnro: How successful a broodmare sire will he be?
Witches (Lonhro – Ouija) had a very useful racing career with three wins. Her female line has a very high 6GFI value of 10.9% and Witches is right in the thick of things. There are a few interesting SW in her female line Northern Drake (Underwood Stakes G1) is one of them
The cross Exceed and Excel – Lonhrohas proved very successful with a ratio SW/R of 7.58% .There are 5 SW produced by this cross;
La Tene 2 x G2 including VRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
Manicure, Resin, Tin Hat and Munhaaj all G3 winners (1200-1600m)
The pedigree of this filly also has a 3m (Zabeel -Eight Carat)x 5f (Sticks and Stones –Eight Carat ) which could be a useful pedigree reinforcement.
The PRI score for this filly is an exceptionally high.97.1 The MM Weanling Sale is the place to find her.
The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale almost concludes the run of the large yearling sales in Australia for this year. Some yearlings who failed to meet the entrance criteria for the major sales are offered. There are also some which did meet the criteria but just weren’t ready for sale earlier in the year. If you are looking to buy a horse that can win a Cox Plate then be a starter in the Arc D’Triomphe all for $40,000, this isn’t the place to look. However, if your goal is to buy a horse that can compete in your local Country Cups, you are looking in the right place.
We narrowed the 339 Lots on offer down to 15 and have chosen 2 which meet our selection rules. The number one rule is to uncover enough information to improve the chances of selecting a good individual on pedigree.
Lot 44 b f Starcraft – Sleek Anitra
Starcraft has produced 40 SW:22 male and 18 females. He is from the Nureyev dynasty (3077 SW) which has produced some imposing horses. Lonhro, Octagonal,Miseque (dual Breeders Cup mile winner), Verry Elleegant, Almond Eye, and MakybeDiva-before we get to the lesser lights. Starcraft was an excellent racehorse.
There aren’t too many sires standing in Australia that have won three G1 of the ilk of AJC Derby, French Prix du Moulin de Longchamps, and the English Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. On the face of it he appears to be underutilised. Most of his best horses are winners in the range 1200-1600m
You can’t improve much on two wins from two starts both as a 2yo. Sleek Anitra’s second win was at Flemington over 1400m. At first glance her performance at stud isn’t that impressive: seven foals. four to race, and only one winner. However, one can find excuses.
Served three times to Anacheeva that is not a good match. Anacheeva has proved to be anything but that at stud. He has one SW out of 111 starters (0.90%). The cross to Fastnet Rock has not produced any SW in 5 attempts and the cross Anabaa x FastnetRock no SW in 25 attempts. Her6GFI of 9.1% shows she should be capable of producing better.
The cross Starcraft x Fastnet Rock has already produced two SW from 29 runners (6.9%). Our Crown Mistress (Starcraft – Barangaroo)has won two listed races (1400/1300m). Pearl Star (Starcraft – Pearl of the Sea) won a listed race over 1100m as a 2yo. She has since had a foal (Cumberbatch) that has won at both Flemington and Sandown. This is another indication that the female line has strength. The cross Starcraft – Sleek Anitrahas a PRI score of 82.5 which puts her in the winners’ category.
Lot 286 b f Magnus – Light Rose
Magnus has produced 19 SW:12 male and 7 females. Being part of the Danehill line through his sire Flying Spur, has probably limited his opportunities with so much Danehill blood in the local broodmare population. Magnus has a SW/R ratio of 3.47%. Most of his runners are sprinters.
The mare Light Rose never started, but the commencement of her stud duties has been promising. She has produced Magnesium Rose a full sister to Lot 286. MagnesiumRose has won three times, including a win over triple SW mare Teleplay and continues to race. Her 6GFI is 4.37% and her female line includes the 6 times G1 winner Durbridge. His victories include the AJC Derby and the Australian Cup.
The cross Magnus – Royal Academy has already produced a L SW winner Front Page (Magnus – Stacey Lee) in the A R Creswick Stakes 1208m. Lot 286 has a PRI value 0f 88.8; definitely in winners’ territory.
The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has plenty of interesting horses. Sorting them out is the task.
For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.
People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.
Things to look for in a broodmare
Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is
A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.
I also like to look at the 6GFI(Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..
Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.
Lot 404Friendly Donna(Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)
Served by All Too Hard
Mare and Covering Sire
All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas
Friendly Donnahad a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.
All Too Hardis currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceedand Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too Hard – Up and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.
Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)
Served by So You Think
Mare and Covering Sire
Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging,Mannerism and Duporthto name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.
So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire
So You Thinkhas now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405. A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.
Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)
Served by All Too Hard
Mare and Covering Sire
Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.
I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta DeLago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.
If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.
The quality of the yearlings in this year’s MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021 is not of the same standard as their first sale of the year. Of the 419 lots on offer, only seven horses are from sires present in the top ten of sires’ premiership list. In addition, the quality of broodmares is down to an average index of around 300 compared with 700 in the yearling sales held to date. Nevertheless, there are winners to be had -finding them is more difficult. Of the horses I have examined, one is of interest. Unfortunately the data is not available around him that I would like.
The three sires of interest in the top ten are All too Hard (Lots 9,79,262,369,404), Pierro (Lot 28) and Zoustar (Lot 40). Of these I believe the latter is of most interest.
Lot 40 (Zoustar – Beyonce’s Star)
The analysis of the pedigree of this horse demonstrates the need to rely on secondary data if primary data is not available. Primary data is that produced by looking how well the sire and dam male line cross. The PRI score for the above match is a low 58.5. This usually means a country class horse. However, in the case of Lot 40, 37.5% of the data is missing. Orientate,Mt Livermore and Tellhave few descendants in Australia contributing to the pedigree. The low PRI score can be explained by the absence of data. But for more insight examination of the secondary data is necessary.
Fappiano: Is he the key to success?
The mare Beyonce’s Star is a SW and is the dam of a SW
Zoustar has produced a stake winner/runners (S/R) ratio of 5.54% which compares favorably with a Redoute’s Choice benchmark of 4.61%
Orientatein the broodmare sire line has produced 25SW (16 male, 9 female) and has an S/R of 5.5%
The Orientate broodmare sire line crosses well to Fappiano in the male sire line. 36% of his 25 winners are crossed to Fappiano.
The data above and the fact that Zoustaris going from strength to strength suggests strongly that this colt is worth a look. He could well be the best buy in the MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021.
The MM Yearling Sales Catalogue lists 1273 yearlings. It It will soon be underway with a plethora of young unproven sires, some sires on their way up and some on their way down. I won’t attempt to review them all, even if I had the space. I have carried out a pedigree analysis of a number of interesting horses and set down four that I believe will be superior race horses.
Lot 245 (b f Fastnet Rock-Dreams and Wishes)
Fastnet Rock 19th in World Sires
Fastnet Rock is rated 19 in the world sires’ premiership, and Galileo is 12 in broodmare sires (by earnings). The combination has produced international winners in America, Europe and Australasia. The score is 20 SW with 8xG1 (5f ,3c) and their offspring have won the Epsom, AJC and Victorian Oaks. There is no reason to suppose that this filly could not add to the list. The PRI analysis shows an excellent meshing of sires and certainly points to a SW. Her female line goes right back to Rainbird the winner of the 1945 Melbourne Cup
Lot 461 (b c Lord Kanaloa – Laguna Azzurra)
Lord Kanaloa breaks track record at Nakayama
Whenever you see a horse sired by the world’s number 2 sire its useful to take notice. This horse is a three-quarter brother to Tagaloa who won the G1 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes. Unfortunately, he broke down in the spring before he could really show what he was capable of. Lord Kanaloa was a 6xG1 winner himself and was a sprinter-miler. However, his progeny has excelled over more distance. Almond Eye, his best horse, has 8xG1 and the tag of world champion 3yo filly to her credit in addition to two Japan Cups (2400m).
Lot 518 (b f No Nay Never-Ma Mara)
No Nay Never wins G1 in France
Twelve months ago, I expected No Nay Neverto do big things. Well, he has been a little slow getting off the mark in Australia although he has increased his SW from 18 to 25 internationally. He has SW winners in USA, UK, Ireland, France, Italy and NZ. These horses have won in the range 1000 -1600m. So, if you are looking for a sprinter this could be your go. No Nay Never’s best horse is Ten Sovereigns who added the July Cup (probably Europe’s most prestigious sprint race) to his SW collection last year. His dam, Seeking Solace, is by Exceed and Excel which makes Lot 518 a three-quarter sister to Ten Sovereigns. With a PRI rating of 95.8%, he is well into Black type territory
Lot 911 (ch c Written Tycoon – Tuscan Sling)
Written Tycoon-11 G1 winners
Written Tycoon has gone from almost obscurity to a super sire in a few years. His progeny like winning the big races and there have been 11 individual G1 SW. Essentially a sire of sprinters, none of his G1 winners has won beyond 1600m. Tusan Sling is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, ranked number 20 in the list of the world’s leading broodmare sires. His female progeny are very versatile and love throwing classic winners. Epsom Oaks, English Derby, Irish Derby, and Hong Kong Derby -the list goes on. Dosage suggests Lot 911 to be a fast sprinter.
However, I believe that although he may be able to win such races as a young horse, his career could extend into the classic distances, that is until he runs out of puff. The cross of Written Tycoon with Danehill Dancer mares has produced three SW. Music Magnate won the G1 Doomben 10,000, Written Beauty won the G3 Red Roses Stakes and It is Written won three listed races all over 1200m. PRI of 92.1% suggest the mating is genetically sound
There are plenty of excellent yearlings In the MM Sales Catalogue 2021. The task is finding the right ones at the right price.
Do champion race mares make champion broodmares? Those who have been following my investigations might consider it is an Australian/NZ issue. I can assure you that it is not. The “‘Curse” is operating elsewhere. Zenyatta is an American champion mare. She was victorious in 19 out of 20 starts. Her only loss was a second in her final race when trying for her second Breeders Cup Classic. She was already the only mare to win the Classic, but the second attempt was just a bit too far. Dropping out last, as was her usual way of racing, she flew home but failed by a neck After winning $7.304m it is time for a new career.
The Breeding Performance of Zenyatta
Zenyatta has been bred to most of the major American sire lines. The results to date have not been encouraging
I cannot fault the breeding plans undertaken for Zenyatta. The PRI scores indicate that the progeny should be competitive racing at stakes level. The breeders have given every chance to this champion race mare to become a champion broodmare. The only problem I see is that crosses to Forli on the dam’s side do not work well, and this must be causing problems. It is surprising that all of the major sire lines chosen seem to be affected. Certainly, the five best horses carrying Forli genes on their dam’s side had no problem “overcoming” it. Bad luck seems to have got in the way of good plans.
Zenyatta with Candy Ride filly
I suggest the way forward would be to find a stallion which crosses well with Forli and check that he is still compatible with the rest of the female pedigree. This stallion may not be fashionable but neither was Nathaniel before he met up with Concentric and produced Enable. Should she win her third Arc, Nathaniel, Enable and John Gosden will be even more famous.
Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013. Certainly, a great race mare.
“Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”
As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy. However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.
Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)
Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzelfilly is the pick of the bunch. It will be interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviarfans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.
There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.
Importance of Genetics
Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.). All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.
The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.
An Example of Breeding Quality Mares to the Best that worked
Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners
Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014
The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares. The breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career
What is a PRI?
The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money. The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, MrProspector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram.
A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehillson (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).
So my advice to people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?
It has been reported that super mare Winx (Street Cry-Vegas Showgirl) is going to be serviced by the Danzig line stallion I am Invincible. Is this another example of “Best to the Best”? Is there something in the combined pedigree that will provide confidence that the mating will produce a significant racehorse? What does a PRI about the projected racing ability of Winx progeny tell us?
As sires go, I Am Invincible was a good racehorse but nothing special. Thirteen starts for 5 wins, 2 two placings and $270k in stakes earned. His sire, Invincible Spirit, was a better racehorse winning a G1 and 2xG3. He stood in Australia for 4 seasons, returned to Ireland and now commands 60,000 euros. The female line of I Am invincible is not strong with a 6GFI of 4.1%. However, his grand dam sits right in middle of a thick vein of Pedrille bloodlines.The fact that s stallion’s fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize winning potential has been established for some time.
Winx’s sire Street Cry was an excellent racehorse. He won the Dubai World Cup and the G1 Stephen Foster Handicap in America. His impressive deeds continued as a sire. His sire line has produced 241 SW, with 46xG1 individual winners. As a broodmare sire he has produced 52 SW. The Winx female line is weak with a 6GFI of 2.82% and she is the only G1 winner in 6 generations.
Putting the two together, what do we get?
New foals are about to arrive
The overall picture is of a complete outcross. There is plenty of line breeding in the back end but this is beyond the fifth generation and unlikely to have much impact in a sixth generation progeny. In the absence of any information to apply some of the favoured techniques in Pedigree Analysis, we can look at the statistics of breeding of Street Cry broodmares. The following comments can be made:
Street Cry broodmares have not produced a SW to any in the Danzig–Green Desert sire line
Storm Cat line sires have produced the most SW (12)
Following him are Mr Prospector(10), Danzig (10 including 5 from Danehill)
Sadler’s Wells has produced 6 with the most G1 performers (2)
The sole G1 winner from a Danzig line stallion Bellamy Road (from Chief’s Crown) was Diversify who won 2xG1. He joined War Admiral, Dr Fager, Alydar and Kelso (who won 3 times) as winners in the time honoured Whitney Handicap (now the Whitney Stakes ). The winner of this race automatically qualifies as a starter in the end of season Breeders Cup Classic worth $8m. So it is worth winning. But I diversify.
What does the PRI say?
A PRI score can tell us the projected racing ability of Winx progeny. The PRI score for the I Am Invincible progeny is 68.8 which in my library suggest it will be unlikely to win in the city. Galileo would probably produce a stakes winner with a score of 88.5. The best local I found was Lonhro with a score of 91.7 but you would need a colt because that is G1 territory. The Danehill line and there is plenty around would be worth investigating but I haven’t done that.
So, is I Am Invincible a good match for Winx? I will let you draw your own conclusions.