Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 3 )

MM Sale Part 3 Racefillies

The sale of racefillies is an important part of this MM Sale Series.  It may well be that the broodmare of your choice has been served by a stallion you are not comfortable with. Another reason may be the perceived increased price of the mare or perhaps the pedigree of the future foal indicates that it is a poor match. I covered this in my last post. You have another option. Purchasing a race filly where you can select a stallion of your choice. Where do you start? I suggest you look at the broodmare statistics for W/R (winners /runners) . Ignore any statistics based on prize money. Since NSW created these huge purse races this data is of little use.

Savabeel (Zabeel – Savannah Success

Savabeel making his mark as a broodmare sire

The son of Zabeel  is currently second on the list of broodmare sires on the basis on a W/R of 39.2%.. He is the broodmare sire of 13 SW including the G1 winner of this year’s Goodwood Handicap  Saxatoxl (Kuroshio –  Li’l Miss Hayley). There are five racefillies for sale in the MM catalogue: Lots 526,574, 575, 615,and 671. Of these fillies Lot 526 Missybeel (Savabeel – Sitting Pretty) has the highest MMI score of  450.Her 6GFI is 7.69. suggesting the female line is reasonably strong. Keeper (Danehill – Nuwirah) also a winner of the Goodwood Handicap is part of the family.

Stallion Selection 

We have examined Missybeel and decided she meets our criteria of what a good broodmare should be. The next step is to examine her pedigree to assess what bloodlines are a suitable match. My homework says look at stallions down the Green Desert line ( Danzig – Foreign Courier). Thirty percent  of Savabeel’s SW as a broodmare sire are from this line of stallions.

Fascino>Charm Spirit>Invincible Spirit> Green Desert

Free of Will>Power>Oasis Dream>Green Desert 

Cloud Surfing>Oasis Dream>Green Desert

Stella De Paco>Paco Boy> Desert Style>Green Desert

And there are plenty around. Seven at the last count and growing.

Using the new sire Magna Grecia (Invincible Spirit – Cabaret) as a  test I calculated a PRI score for the cross Magna Grecia – Missybeel of 73.3 which is very high considering the sire has no SW at present. I also did Lot 575 (Shimmer Lake : Savabeel – Grey Swallow ) with Magna Grecia for a PRI score of 68.6.  So I believe using the Green Desert connection puts you  on the right track.

The sale of racefillies is always exciting and the MM is the place to be.

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales Round 2

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale Round 2

There are some nice horses for sale here. There are plenty from sires that started their careers in 2017 and whose progeny are rising 2yo. They have not yet raced. This means that an evaluation based on the performance of SW progeny of the sire is not possible. There is no data. It will start  accumulating when the new racing season commences.The overall difficulty of assessing potential winners is increased and we to rely more on other factors. The 6 Generation Female Index (6GFI) and the Mares ’Mating Index (MMI) are two tools that can help. The PRI, which is a data based system isn’t much help as 60% of the data is missing.

Mares’ Mating Index

This is calculated from information on stake winners found in the last 3 generations of the broodmare’s family. The exercise is carried out for every individual mare in a stallion’s book for a selected year. The results can be related to the overall strength of the broodmare band. I applied this technique to the mares served by twenty-two stallions who started their stud career in 2017. Those mares sent to American Pharoah topped the list at 787.9 points. This was 8% higher than the second placed band of mares and 165% higher than the lowest ranked group. I must admit to being a fan of American Pharoah as I was at Churchill Downs with 180,000 others to watch him win the Kentucky Derby. With the help of Jay Hovdey, America’s Leading Racing Journalist, Bob Moses a Victorian Owner and I picked the trifecta. Fort Knox is just down the road but it wasn’t needed.

Six Generation Female index

This is the percentage of Stake Winners in the tail female line. When obtaining this data, it becomes apparent where the stake winners are clustered and you need your mare to be as close as possible to these clusters. It doesn’t always happen like this but it is better to be with a group than by your own.

American Pharoah Progeny

American Pharoah in 2015 became the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. There have only been 13 horses to take that title. His credentials as a superior

American Pharoah wins the third leg of the triple crown

racehorse are high. One would expect him to be a successful sire, but he has to prove it. American Pharoah is shown to have the best book of mares of the 22 examined. Hence we have zeroed in on his progeny. There are five yearlings at the sale by the following mares. All have dosage values which show they should be sprinters:

Sucker Punch 13.8; Paris Who 7.5; Joie d’Espirit 5.2; Tornado Miss 4.0; Amberio 3.3; Angel Face 1.0.

The colt by Sucker Punch has the strongest female family by far. Although the catalogue doesn’t show it, the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist is not far away in the pedigree so he is definitely worth a look.  Not too many mare pedigrees have two Golden Slipper winners up close.