Monthly Archives: March 2020

Capricornia Yearling Sales 2020

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Capricorn Yearling Sale 2020

The Sale begins on April 5th.. With all the distractions around I hope the organizers will be rewarded for their considerable effort. There are 91 Lots representing 39 Stallions. and  interesting yearlings from Domesday and Foxwedge. The stallions fall into three groups

  • Established proven sires of Stake Winners who some people believe are past their best. (Holy Roman Emperor (67SW), Domesday (18SW), Falvelon (11SW))
  • A few up and comers, Foxwedge (15SW) )
  • The majority trying to make their mark or just starting off.

To discuss, I have selected Lot 14 and Lot 82.

Lot 14 (Domesday- Halle Mcollywill)

I have talked about Domesday (18SW, 5x G1) before. Lot 14 is the only horse that I can find in the Sale where the sire has produced a SW from a match to a SW brood mare sire. In this case Mossman.  The horse was Cailin Miss (Domesday – Partygoer by Mossman). She only had 4 starts and won a Listed race in South Australia. Since retiring she has visited some heavy hitting mates. In order Foxwedge, Snitzel and I Am Invincible which shows someone believes in her quality. A PRI score of 85.6 points to a city winner. Although her 6GFI is a modest 4.8%, the action around the dam is very good (1xG1, 1xG2, 3xG3 and 1xL).  The mating to produce Lot 14 is a wide outcross. No Danehills anywhere to muddy the waters .Although Domesday’s best horses have been colts; this filly would be worth a look.

Lot 82 (Foxwedge – Burleigh Bullet)

Foxwedge

Foxwedge     Young sire on the way up

If you are looking to buy from a sire on the way up, then Foxwedge is for you. His oldest progeny are only 5 yo and he has already produced 15SW.  His three G1 winners are widely spread; New Zealand, Western Australia and Ireland.  Urban Fox (Foxwedge-Lomapamar) easily won the Pretty Pretty  Polly Stakes in Ireland. This race is regarded as a useful guide to the English Oaks. Lot 82 with a 4mx4m cross to Storm Cat is related to Sadilla (Foxwedge-Saderaat) winner of a listed race in Italy over 2000m. Lot 82 has Storm Cat 4mx3m. Another things this filly has going for her is that of the 15SW sired by Foxwedge, 13 are fillies and 2 are colts.

Both these interesting  yearling from Domesday and Foxwedge are worth a look.

 

MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2020

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MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sales 2020 

These Sales are coming up quicker than I can Analyse their content!. The MM  March Yearling Sales has quality horses. To find them you have to dig deep into the pedigrees. I will comment on three Lots of the 412 on offer. Two of them are based on PRI analysis and the third is a long shot .Ahonoora broodmare performance.points a yearling related to the English Derby winner Masar.

Lot 95 (ch c Star Witness – Zaripova )

Star Witness has a useful stud career with impressive 65% winners to runners. The female line through Zaripova is quite strong with a Six Generation Female Index (6GFI) of 11.6%.  Shirley Heights, Pentire and Fubu are just some of the well performed descendants of this line. The mare is well positioned in the pedigree for some of their ability to rub off. The PRI of 85.6 indicates that this colt should be a city winner. He could perhaps go even better.

Lot 334 ( c f Nicconi – More Than Royal)

Nicconi is essentially a sire of sprinters. None of his 18SW has won beyond 1610m. Group 1 success has come with Nature Strip in the Galaxy (1100m) , the Moir (1000m) and Darley Classic (1200m). He can perform with broodmare sires that sire sprinters. More Than Ready fills that role. The 6GFI index of this filly is a respectable 7.8%. With a PRI of 82.9 she should be competitive in the city.

Lot 169 (b c Dawn Approach – Cross Stitched)

This is my roughie. Dawn Approach was an exceptional racehorse. He won all the important races on his way to the European Champion Juvenile title. Four G1: Two Thousand Guineas, Dewhurst, Vincent O Brien, St James Palace. His stud performance to date has been modest, a winners/runners ratio of 40.9%. The credentials of Cross Stitched with a 6GFI of 4.7% is not exceptional. And she is way removed from any Black Type action in this pedigree analysis. I calculate the PRI score of this colt to be 72.1. So what is it about this pedigree to get excited about? The excitement comes from the 4×4 cross to the stallion Ahonoora. This horse was super sire but I will restrict my comments to the cross of two of his daughters.

Park Appeal

Park Appeal (Ahonoora – Balidaress) was a Dual G1 winner and the dam of 4SW. The best known was Cape Cross the sire of the World Champion Horse of 2009, Sea The Stars.

Park Express (Ahonoora – Matcher) was a G1 winner of the Irish Champion Stakes and the dam of 3 SW including the Derby winner New Approach.

This colt by Dawn Approach carries a 3fx3f cross: Park Express x Park Appeal. The 2018 English Derby winner Masar (New Approach- Khawlah) has a 2fx3f cross: Park Express x Park Appeal. 

Will the power of these genes by sufficient to bypass the deficiencies in the rest of the pedigree? Will this be a super horse or a modest performer his PRI indicates ? Only time will tell

As I have said previously, look at them closely and reach your own conclusion.

MM Adelaide Yearling Sales 2020

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MM Adelaide Yearling Sales 2020 

It is now time to turn our attention to the MM Adelaide yearling sales of 2020. They are not quite the sales they were in my youth. Cummings and Hayes were both training here. John Hawkes was a premier jockey. Mark Kavanagh was fearless over the jumps. But time changes a lot of things. Nevertheless, the MM Adelaide has some interesting yearlings. All you need is knowledge and luck. Two of the 521 lots which interest me and I believe would be worth looking at. Anyone following my blogs on the various sales will notice I concentrate on sires that have a track record of producing winners.  My systems are based on statistical analysis. Without statistics there can be no analysis.

Lot 139 (b c Al Maher-Theophania)

Al Maher has proved to be a versatile stallion. He has sired 27 SW  of which 4 have won at the G1 level  All his G1 winners has saluted at 1600m or further. In fact his most successful horse Delicacy, not only won the Australasian Oaks, the SA and WA Derbies, but also the Perth Cup (3200m). This is not to say Al Maher cannot produce sprinters. Monsieur Gustave won the G3 Summer Stakes (1200m) and three Listed races-one at 1400m and two at 1200m. I have calculated a PRI value for this Al Maher colt of 89.2. This suggests a City winner which could go on to even greater things.

Lot 261 (ch c Manhattan Rain- Daily Flyer)

Manhattan Rain has proved to be another versatile sire. He has sired 13 SW with 2xG1winners. She Will Reign won both the Golden Slipper (1200m) and the Moir Stakes (1000m). At the other end of the distance scale, Whisky Baron won the Metropolitan (2000m) in South Africa. And if you want to take it even further, Runaway was successful in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) and the L VRC St Leger (2800m)

Manhattan Rain

There is little doubt that the dam’s side of the pedigree is one of the most influential of the 20th century. Going back to Mumtaz Mahal the grandam of Nasrullah, through to other names in the family such as Octagonal, Tristalove, Commands, Danewin,  Impaler, Diamond Lover-it goes on and on. The six generation Female Index is 11.6% which is most impressive. The pedigree shows inbreeding to the mare Rolls. This can be either good or bad depending on how you look at it. On the bad side I understand Rolls was a difficult mare to manage (one handler called her “a nut case”) So temperate genes might be wanting. On the other hand she contributed racing genes to make a Golden slipper winner.

A PRI value of 85.0 points to a city class horse, and perhaps something even better. As I have said previously, look at them closely and make you opinion.