Inglis Yearling Sale May 2022

The Sydney version of the Inglis May yearling sale 2022 is about to get underway. With 287 lots on offer you would think there would be plenty of variety. However, with 26% of yearlings inbred to Danehill and his close relations, the variety Is not as broad as you might expect. We have already discussed the merit or otherwise of inbreeding to Danehill. Outcomes tell us it is not a great return. The other 74% of the draft has many new sires making their way. There is little or no data to conclude whether they will be a success or not.  Nevertheless, there will be bargains here, finding them is the task. I have selected only one horse I like and made comments about another

Lot 38 b f Choisir – Calaway Cruizer

Choisir needs little introduction as a heavyweight racehorse and international sire. A total of 144 SW, m/f ratio 76/68, and SW/R of 4.67%. Says it all. On the female side of Lot 38,there isn’t much with a 6GFI of 2.0. However, one generation back on the female tail line is Tranquil Star. A true champion filly that won the 1942 Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plates of 1942 and 1944. If Choisir can unlock the right genes, a high quality racehorse will be the result. The PRI score for Lot 38 is 85.8 which is certainly in the winners category.

Choisir: A CHAMPION EVERYWHERE

What about the cross Choisir x High Chaparral? Through his son Starspangledbanner, the Choisir line has produced The Wow Signal (G1 Prix Morny 6f in France, G2 Coventry Stakes in GB) and California Spangle (L race,1811m in Hong Kong).

Lot 48 b c Merchant Navy – Crazyonyou

This horse may be of interest from a breeding aspect. It is an example of a delta cross. We have been down this track before (see Dec 2002 post). In this case the cross between brother (Fastnet Rock) and sister (Saratosa). As discussed before, this type of breeding has produced true champions in the past. Lando, the German super horse a Japan Cup winner, and Habibti, one of Europe’s greatest sprinters are two examples.

In the 2020 sales we recommended Lot 209 (a delta cross between brother Redoute’s Choice and sister Monsoon Wedding) . The horse ran in NZ as Meritable and has done pretty well (5 starts 1-3-0) and has run second in both a G1 and a G2.

It may be difficult to find the right horse in this sale. However, the Inglis May yearling sale 2022 is the place to find them. Good Luck.

Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

The Breeders Cup World Championship have just been completed at Del Mar in California. Fastnet Rock (Danehill – Piccadilly Circus ) was an Aussie with a presence and he did us proud. The Spring Carnivals in Melbourne and Sydney are not truly World Championships. You need the best in the world competing. These horses were in Del Mar. The Melbourne Cup is the only local race that attracts sufficient world interest of horses, trainers, jockeys  and the general public. This is a fact.  It doesn’t matter what the well oiled PR machines might say. It is also irrelevant to how much money is thrown at the various races.

The races at Del Mar attracted the best in America, Europe and Japan. Dermott Wells was there; Aiden O’Brien with a big string of horses and Godolphin in force. Unfortunately, John Gosden was unable to bring Mishriff (French Derby winner,3xG1 this year and arguably the world’s best horse) for the Breeders Cup Classic or Turf. He was early favorite for the race.

Fastnet Rock Waves the Aussie Flag

Australia had a significant representation in the World Championship Juvenile (2yo) Fillies race on Turf. Pizza Bianca ( Fastnet Rock – White Hot) was coming off a second in the

Fastnet Rock : fast Racehorse Super Sire and now Broodmare Sire

G1 Natalma Stakes following up her win in a Maiden at her first start. After starting the race well, the filly dropped back and was last coming into the straight. The jockey (Jose Ortiz Jr ) and Pizza Bianca formed a masterful  combination as they weaved their way past and through the entire field  to win going away. Her breeder/owner Celebrity Chef Bobby Flay praised the efforts of his trainer Christolphe Clemete with his first win in the Breeder’s Cup after 40 attempts.  Pizza Bianca is superbly bred. Her dam White Hot never raced but she is a daughter of Gwynn the dam of the 2011 Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi (Montjeu – Gwynn ).

Australia’s other interest in the race was the previously unbeaten Koala Princess (More than Ready- Koala Queen by Lonhro). Sent out the favorite in the race but caught wide and finished 21/4 lengths from the winner.

Seeing the horses competing in the Breeder’s Cup World Championship was great viewing.

 

 

Breeding Strategy

Should a breeder persevere with a breeding strategy based on pedigree analysis or chop and change to meet the current fashion? The latter is perused by many who want to make money at auction and it is very successful. But does it produce champion racehorses? The breeding season is well underway but perhaps it is not too late to put down an  observation from my current work. I must confess my clients in Japan and America are much more interested in breeding a champion than getting a quick buck at a yearling sale. I have been examining elements of the Best in Show broodmare line and it is a fascinating tale. There is no doubt Best in Show initiated the most successful female line in the last 50 years and it continues. Volumes could be written about the exploits of her family but space restricts me to an example.

Best in Show

There is nothing outstanding in the Best in Show pedigree. Her sire Traffic Judge was a good racehorse winning 2G1 ,2G2, 1G3, and was a moderately successful sire with five SW in 172 progeny. Her dam Stolen Hour was not a SW; 6 wins in 38 starts shows talent and soundness. In fact in the female tail line there is no SW back as far as 1728! However, on the female side of the pedigree there are two powerful genetic influences, War Admiral and La Troienne.; But these are present in other female lines that didn’t start a dynasty. There is just something special about Best in Show. She was sold for $25,000 at the 1966 Keenland sales.  A useful race horse winning $53,880 in 27 Starts; 5 wins, three seconds, and four thirds. Among her victories was the G3 Comely Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile.

Best in Show Breeding Career

Her sixteen offspring included four SW (two  fillies, Blush with Pride and Monroe, and two Colts Gielgud and Malinowski ). Best in Show’s  greatness came from these and all her other fillies who were not SW.. The difference between Best in Show and other female lines is that they may experienced their fifteen minutes of fame but this did not extend to all the racing jurisdictions of the world. In addition they may have produced SW but not absolute champion horses which excelled on the track and in the breeding barn. We should notice that the Best in Show line has 14 horses that weren’t SW but they were still powerful performers. One of her fillies Sex Appeal by Buckpasser,  illustrates this      .

I know something about her as my horse Nishiazabu was inbred 4m x4f to Sex Appeal. This horse was a stayer who won Australia’s longest flat race (3600m) and subsequently a Horse of the Year nomination. Sex Appeal was unraced but she inherited the genes to make champions. So a breeding strategy .based on looking closely at the female pedigree won’t go astray. So you don’t necessarily need a SW. What you need is a sound breeding strategy based on pedigree and to persevere with it..

Inglis Ready to Race Sale October 2021

The catalogue for the Inglis Ready to Race October 2021 is now available. Ready to race sales have advantages over conventional yearling sales. The horses are broken in, fit to race and prospective buyers can see the horse’s action from their breeze up videos. There is also a record of the time they are capable of running. You will probably pay more dollars for this information. The advantage of seeing a horse run should not be underestimated. Those who have been following my posts will know that I selected fourteen yearlings during the 2019-2020 sales period. These horses are now 3yo. Of the fourteen, all have been named, but only 6 have started in a race.  Of these, three have won and another placed. For the other eight, their 2yo career is over. Dreams of a Golden Slipper triumph evaporated. Of the one hundred and eighty-five 2yo on offer at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale I have looked for fast horses with PRI back up.

Dosage and Fast Horses

The Dosage system attempts to put a numerical analysis on the pedigree of a horse which is based on its Speed and Stamina. For those interested I would recommend Steve Roman’s book “Dosage Pedigree and Performance”. The data can be utilized in a number of ways. One choice is to establish a Dosage Index (DI) which is simply a measure of speed to stamina.  The Table shows the range of values for the DI for a number of races as well as for champion sprinters in Australia in the last ten years or so. The data can also be arranged to provide a value for Centre of Distribution (CD). This figure marks the balancing point of a pedigree between speed and stamina and it is displayed by a number between +2 and -2. A positive number shows speed outranks stamina and a negative number stamina out ranks speed. The Table below sets out some DI and CD values of relevance.

It is clear from the data that the range of values for speed horses, (2yo in the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond, and that of Champion Australian sprinters) show different dosage profiles from the horses that have won the Melbourne Cup and the UK St Leger.

Dosage Ratings of Horses at the Inglis Sale

I did not measure the DI and CD values of all the horses in the sale. I cut the list to those where there was a reasonable quantity of data available and selected three horses for comment. Lots 93.45 and 79 should have exceptional speed. In fact, lot 93 is more like a quarter horse. However, the low PRI score probably means it could run out of breath rather quickly. Lots 45 and 79 have strong PRI scores to back up their speed rating. It will be interesting to see how they go. Paper studies are useful but so is the real thing and to see that you need to look at the information provided at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale in October.

 

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 2 )

MM Sale Part 2 Broodmares.

The MM Broodmare Sale has a bewildering number of possibilities. There are certainly good horses to be found here. When purchasing a mare in foal it is important to look at the foal. The only criteria you can use to assess  the “value” of the foal is its pedigree. As we have already seen the service fee has no connection to how good a racehorse it is likely to be. How much effort is put into establishing the possible racing credentials of the foal? Not much I suspect. The decision is based on other factors.

For example, Speightown is one of America’s leading broodmare sires with  W/R ratio of  41%.. He has two mares in the sale Lot 928 (MMI 250) and Lot 1036 (MMI 540). Focusing on the mare with the highest MMI value, Simply Spiteful,  is believed to be in foal  to Capitalist.. There is no doubt that he is one of Australia’s leading sires. A PRI analysis of the progeny gives a very low value of 47.1. At this index level, horses have an AEI (Average Earning Index) range of 0-1.8. Will this horse fail on the track? Well, racing has its miracles but it usually pays to stick with the odds.

Lot 1179 Blueberry Smoothie (Giant’s Causeway – Shampoo)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Blueberry Smoothie was a useful Stakes winning mare in the USA.  She is By Giant’s Causeway who has risen to number two in the international broodmare sires list. Her MMI is 490 which puts her in the slightly above average category. Her 6GFI is 4.42 which is about average.  It is too early to write off her stud performance with some heavy hitting sires and So You Think is another.. He has risen to number four in the Australian sires premiership.

Giant’s Causeway Number two broodmare sire in world rankings

The Cross

The cross So You Think x Giant’s Causeway has already produces a SW. Good Idea (So You Think – Shamardal by Giant’s Causeway ) won this year’s G2 Adelaide Cup. His dam Faint Perfume (VRC Oaks winner) was no doubtful very helpful. The PRI of the future foal is 77.9 which is not exceptional. There are a few good horses with PRI scores around this level, but also some notable failures. So it is risky territory if you want to spend big money.

All in all, the MM Broodmare Sale is good to be at.

Inglis May Yearling Sale 2021

The Inglis May Yearling Sale 2021 has 356 lots. It is surprising that so may mares have never started  or have never won a race. This always makes evaluation of their progeny more tricky. Nevertheless there will be bargains here, if you can find them. Following the theme of my last post, I have concentrated on finding a yearling with the potential to win a Golden Slipper. My criteria are pretty simple. The sire has to have shown he can produce a horse of the right class as well as having plenty of speed.

Lot 88 b c Starspangledbanner – Cannon’s Crown

The Sire

Starspangledbanner-Super Fast Sprinter

Starspangledbanner was a top racehorse. In Australia he won twice at the G1 level. The Caulfield Guineas and the ultimate speed test for sprinters the Oakleigh Plate. His efforts crowned him Australian Champion Sprinter in 2009. Moving to Europe he won two more G1s. The Golden Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup, arguably Britain’s most important sprint race. His trainer, Aiden O’Brien, called Starspangledbanner the fastest horse he had ever seen. He deserved to title of European Champion Sprinter in 2010. His stud career started slowly because of low fertility but that seems to be a problem of the past.

The Mare 

Denise’s Joy

Cannon’s Crown didn’t do much on the racetrack. Unplaced in three starts, albeit they were all on rain affected tracks. However, from a pedigree perspective she comes from a strong female family with a 6GFI index of 12.0%. The star of the show is undoubtedly the ten times G1 winner Denise’s Joy. The filly was also second in the  Golden Slipper of 1974.Hopefully, her ability will continue to be transferred down the female line

The cross:Starspangedbanner x High Chaparral 

This has already produced a G1 winner The Wow Signal. This colt was successful in the 2yo Prix Morny (6f) in France. This race can be described as the “Golden Slipper ” of France. The race commenced in 1865 and its recent winners include Blushing Groom (1976),Irish River (1978), Green Forest (1981) who is in the female line of Starspangledbanner, Machiavellian (1989) Zafonic (1992) Fasliyev (1996) Johannesburg (2001) and The Wow Signal (2014).This cross has a PRI score of 85.4 which suggests a cpable horse

Summary

A lot of the boxes have been ticked but you need to inspect at the Inglis May Yearling Sale 2021 and make up your own mind. Hopefully all the bits will come together.

 

Capricornia Yearling Sales 2020

Capricorn Yearling Sale 2020

The Sale begins on April 5th.. With all the distractions around I hope the organizers will be rewarded for their considerable effort. There are 91 Lots representing 39 Stallions. and  interesting yearlings from Domesday and Foxwedge. The stallions fall into three groups

  • Established proven sires of Stake Winners who some people believe are past their best. (Holy Roman Emperor (67SW), Domesday (18SW), Falvelon (11SW))
  • A few up and comers, Foxwedge (15SW) )
  • The majority trying to make their mark or just starting off.

To discuss, I have selected Lot 14 and Lot 82.

Lot 14 (Domesday- Halle Mcollywill)

I have talked about Domesday (18SW, 5x G1) before. Lot 14 is the only horse that I can find in the Sale where the sire has produced a SW from a match to a SW brood mare sire. In this case Mossman.  The horse was Cailin Miss (Domesday – Partygoer by Mossman). She only had 4 starts and won a Listed race in South Australia. Since retiring she has visited some heavy hitting mates. In order Foxwedge, Snitzel and I Am Invincible which shows someone believes in her quality. A PRI score of 85.6 points to a city winner. Although her 6GFI is a modest 4.8%, the action around the dam is very good (1xG1, 1xG2, 3xG3 and 1xL).  The mating to produce Lot 14 is a wide outcross. No Danehills anywhere to muddy the waters .Although Domesday’s best horses have been colts; this filly would be worth a look.

Lot 82 (Foxwedge – Burleigh Bullet)

Foxwedge

Foxwedge     Young sire on the way up

If you are looking to buy from a sire on the way up, then Foxwedge is for you. His oldest progeny are only 5 yo and he has already produced 15SW.  His three G1 winners are widely spread; New Zealand, Western Australia and Ireland.  Urban Fox (Foxwedge-Lomapamar) easily won the Pretty Pretty  Polly Stakes in Ireland. This race is regarded as a useful guide to the English Oaks. Lot 82 with a 4mx4m cross to Storm Cat is related to Sadilla (Foxwedge-Saderaat) winner of a listed race in Italy over 2000m. Lot 82 has Storm Cat 4mx3m. Another things this filly has going for her is that of the 15SW sired by Foxwedge, 13 are fillies and 2 are colts.

Both these interesting  yearling from Domesday and Foxwedge are worth a look.