Victoria Derby: Can a pedigree analysis assist?

 

History and Update

Elimination of chances in the Victoria Derby by pedigree analysis will help point to a winner. The process can eliminate horses that will be not suited by the distance of the race. The Victoria Derby was first run in1855. Some of the greats of the Australian Turf have won it. Phar Lap, Comic Court, Tulloch, Sky High, Tobin Bronze, Dulcify, and Mahogany to name a few. In recent years the Race has lost some of its glamour as racing authorities continue to cut the length of races to the detriment of true stayers. I would contend that it is not the horses that have failed to live up to the challenge, but the racing authorities.

In the last 20 years Derby winners have won an additional 21G1 races, 11G2, 6G3 and 11L races. There is no doubt these horses would have done better if there were suitable races for them.  However, the racing authorities with their policy of pouring money into glorified quarter horse races have virtually shut the door on the racing career of most derby winners.

The Victoria Derby: A Winner’s Pedigree

Unless you are going to send a mare to the Northern Hemisphere for breeding, you are limited to Sothern Hemisphere stock. In the last 20 years what bloodlines have been successful? The table shows the list to start your looking.

There were a couple of surprises. The first is the presence of only one horse from the Mr Prospector line.

Sadler’s Wells: Super Racehorse and Super Sire

 

Danzig: The Power of Northern Dancer

Lion Tamer (Storming Home-Lioness) from the Machiavellian sireline. Considering the influence Mr Prospector has on the world breeding industry (Fapianno, Unbridled, Woodman, Empire Maker Gone West, Kingmambo etc.) It is surprising he doesn’t rate here. Perhaps when American Pharoah gets going  things will change.

Secondly, I judged More Than Ready, from the Halo line, from his Golden Slipper deeds but he is more versatile than that. Not only is he the sire of two Derby winners (Benicio 2002 and Prized Icon 2016) but has produced many classic G1 winners at 2400m or thereabouts. Some of his winners are Eagle Way, 2016 Queensland Derby, More Than Sacred 2013 NZ Oaks, Dreamaway 2011 WA Derby/Oaks double, and Say the Word 2020 Northern Dancer Stakes in Canada. So any horse from More Than Ready should not be dismissed as merely a sprinter.

So to cut  chances in the Derby field to a manageable level consider the pedigree lines presented in the table. To select a winner you have to consider other annoying things. The barrier, the jockey, the state of the track, and the form of the horse. You can then sit back and enjoy the race

War Front: Latest Danzig super sire

Future Prospects

Finally. if you see anything related to War Front, have a real good look. He is the grand sire of last years winner Warning and the hottest property in the world today. His stud fee for next year will probably exceed $400,000 (Aust) .

 

 

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