Did a Pedigree Analysis Predict of the Result of the Victorian Derby?

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Well both yes and no; a pedigree analysis  of the Victoria Derby of 2020,did not absolutely predict the winner but did get three of the first four place getters. A synopsis of this analysis is in three parts:

Sire Line and PRI Scores

We suggested that the winner would most likely come from one of four sire lines: Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, Sir Tristram or Halo. Johnny Get Angry comes from Tavistock>Montjeu>Sadler’s Wells. The PRI scores were not put in the Blog but are

The finishing predictions based only on Victorian Derby pedigree analysis were slightly better than the betting order and certainly better for Johnny Get Angry. The PRI failure to recognize Young Werther is a mystery. Although he had few starts, that should have little influence on his score. The cross in his pedigree of the Tavistock line stallions x Cure the Blues was very poor. There were 18 Points lost here which would have raised his score to 85.6, slightly above that of the winner. I am afraid it is an imperfect world.

Deeper Pedigree Analysis for Johnny Get Angry

The more you look at this horse the better he becomes.

1 Sires

Column three of any pedigree contains the major sire lines of influence. For stayers it is hard to beat the quartet of Sadler’s Wells, Quest for Fame, Sir Tristram, and Singspiel. For those unfamiliar with Singspiel he won a Japan Cup, a Dubai World Cup, and has provided a male line to 97SW with a 1.1% G1 winners to runners. If these four stallions were not mutually compatible it would have shown up in the PRI Score

Singspiel-Great Racehorse and Sire

2 Tail Dam line

The power is show by going back three generations; Pavlova>Hospitable>Fetoon.

  • Fetoon was the dam of Markam (by Salieri), winner G1 South Australian Derby 2500m and also of Hospitable (by Luskin Star).
  • Hospitable was the dam of Fubu (by Last Tycoon), a winner of VATC Shannon Classic G2 1800m, and Pavlova (by Singspiel) who won the MVRC JRA Cup over 2040m (L)
  • Pavlova didn’t achieve much except the mating with Zabeel to produce Luminova the dam of Johnny Get Angry

All in all, a wonderful stayers pedigree for a horse to carry into the Victorian Derby, but as Robert Blake famously said “Hindsight is a wonderful thing…………………….”