Inglis Ready2Race Sale 2022

Inglis Ready2Race sale will shortly be underway. For the purchaser of a race horse   ready to run sales have an advantage over traditional yearling sales. The horses have been broken in and their performance both live and on video is there for all to see. The costs of getting a horse to the point where it can show what it can do have already been met. Vendors hope/expect to recover these costs in the sale. So prices will generally be higher than those at a traditional auction sale

However, selecting the right horse still follows the standard procedures. Pedigree analysis is a good guide to performance. I have selected two horses at the Inglis Ready2Race sale which I believe worthy of consideration.

Lot 62 b f More Than Ready – State of Play

More Than Ready needs little introduction and we have commented on his prowess before. A producer of 377 SW almost equally split between males and females and 7230 winners overall. It’s a record that’s hard to beat.  Fastnet Rock is just getting warmed up as a broodmare sire. The cross More Than Ready x Fastnet Rock has already produced 6 SW (SW/R 5.4%). Sejardan is the most successful to date (G2 Todman Slipper,1208m, and G3 Arrowfield Breeders Plate). It is worth noting  that 5/6 of the SW have all won as 2yo. The PRI score of 98.8 suggests this filly could add to the list.

More than Ready: a Champion in every way

Another positive for Lot 62 is her very strong female bottom line which has a 6GFI of 13.6%.  There are some very impressive females in this list: Denise Joy, More Joyous, Sunday Joy, and Joie Denise. These go along with the males Primus and Thorn Park. Plenty of talent here!

Lot 206 b c Epaulette – Juliet’s Princess

 

Epualette has been a constant producer of winners in Australia before he moved to Turkey in October 2021. A producer of 19 SW his SW/R Ratio is 3.51%. The female line has a respectable 6GFI of 7.92%. Churchill Downs is part of the female bottom line. There is also a strong element of Argentinian blood lines. Fairy Magic (triple G1 Winner) and Fain (G1 winner and Argentine Horse of the year in 1986).

The cross Epaulette x More Than Ready has already produced a SW in Hong Kong. Covert Operations scored in the L National Day Cup over 1006m. Lot 206 has a PRI score of 90.4 which suggests a winner.

These Ready to Race events are fun to be at and the Inglis Ready2Race event is no exception.

PRI Analysis Reviewed for 2020 Yearlings

The importance of a  pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a  more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.

Selections from 2020 Sales

Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and  produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:

Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales

Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.

The selections were made addressing a  number of pedigree relevant issues

  • Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters,  Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
  • For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
  • I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
Conclusions

It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”.  The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses).  This comparison appears in the table below

I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2022

The Inglis Great Southern Sale comprises three elements. Select Weanlings, General Weanlings and Broodmares. I have examined the pedigrees available of the Select group. Picking weanlings that will grow into good racehorses is obviously more difficult than selecting yearlings. They have to survive (and their upkeep paid for!) for an additional 12 months. Then you might know something. Here are my two selections.

Lot 75 br c  Pierro – Single Note

Pierro is now a well established sire. He has sired 27 SW with a and his colts have topped the fillies 19 to 8. However, his best horse was the mare, Arcadia Queen, winner of the McKinnon Stakes (G1). Overall, his SW/r figure is 5.98%.

The female side of the pedigree is solid without being spectacular. The 6GFI is a healthy 13.04%. The PRI score for Lot 75 is 83.5. I would expect him to be a winner.

Lot 105 b f Night of Thunder – Tashaarok

Night of Thunder has already produced 28 SW. Fillies have prevailed, 19 to 8. His  SW/r ratio of 12.61% is very impressive.  His best horse to date is Thundering Nights, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1). He seems to have the credentials of a stallion that can bring out the best in a strong broodmare lineage and he certainly gets his chance here.

Fanfreluche- one of Northern Dancer’s greatest mares

The key to the female line is the Northern Dancer mare Fanfreluche. US Champion filly in 1979,  she was sold after her 3yo days, for US $1.3m, a record price at that time. The dam of L’Enjoleur, twice Horse of the Year in Canada, and two other G1 winners.  The female line has continued to produce not only great racehorses but great sires. Those well known in Australia are Flying Spur, Encosta de Lago and Holy Roman Emperor. It hasn’t stopped as Russian Revolution has now joined the list. Lot 105 has a PRI score on 99.2. Almost Perfection.

Inglis Great Southern Sale June 2022 has something for everybody.

 

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale 2022

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale is always a great event. This year I have concentrated my search on finding yearlings with high PRI scores and strong female (tail) lines,

Lot 1524 b f Brazen Beau – Za Star

Brazen Beau has made a promising start as a sire. He has recorded 16 SW and a SW/r of 4.69%. His colts have performed better on the racetrack than the fillies-13 to 3. Dosage suggests a middle distance horse so she probably won’t be at her best in the early 2yo races. The female line is strong with a 6GFI  of 16.6%. Probably the best horse in the female line is Lucia Valentina winner of 4 G1 including the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

The cross Brazen Beau x Zabeel has already produced two SW

  • General Beau, winner of Blue Diamond Prelude 1100m (G3)
  • North Pacific, winner of Up and Coming Stakes 1308m (G3)

A PRI Score which is 95.0 indicates a high quality filly.

Lot 1655 b c Swiss Ace – Go Kate Go

Swiss Ace was a very fast race horse. I guess you have to be to win an Oakleigh Plate. At stud he has a useful record of 14 SW and SW/r of 3.22%. Dosage predicts Lot 1655 to be a very fast horse which should be an  early starter. The female line is incredibly strong with a 6GFI of 49.6%!!The female line just rolls with SW and champions. Undoubtedly,  this colt has the strongest female pedigree of any horse in the sale. Commands, Danewin,

Klairessa – start of a dynasty

Octagonal, Deep Field, Shooting to Win, Tristalove etc etc. I examined this female line for a previous client and concluded that the key mare in the line up was Klairessa the dam of both Eight Carat and Habibti. Most breeders followed down the Eight Carat path and bred champion stayers. Habibti , one of Europe’s best ever sprinters also went down this track without much success. So breeding the line to a very fast horse could produce something exceptional.

The cross Swiss Ace x More Than Ready has already produced two SW

  • Little Giant won in Hong Kong 1000m (G3)
  • Top Prospect won in New Zealand 1500m (L)

A perfect PRI score shows this horse is worth a look.

Lot 1745 b c All Too Hard – Mnemonic

We have commented before that the statistics of All Too Hard improve year upon year. He has now a record of 14 SW with SW/r of 3.22%. Colts out number fillies 9 to 5. Dosage predicts a miler- middle  distance horse. The female line of this colt has a very attractive 6GFI of 13.2%. Jetball and Marwina are relatives in the female line.

The cross All Too Hard x Hussonet has already produced a SW

  • Hard to Think won the Singapore Derby 1811m (G3).

With a nearly perfect PRI score this could be an exceptional colt.

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale will have many good horses than the three I have studied. Its an event not to be missed.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.

 

Inglis Yearling Sale May 2022

The Sydney version of the Inglis May yearling sale 2022 is about to get underway. With 287 lots on offer you would think there would be plenty of variety. However, with 26% of yearlings inbred to Danehill and his close relations, the variety Is not as broad as you might expect. We have already discussed the merit or otherwise of inbreeding to Danehill. Outcomes tell us it is not a great return. The other 74% of the draft has many new sires making their way. There is little or no data to conclude whether they will be a success or not.  Nevertheless, there will be bargains here, finding them is the task. I have selected only one horse I like and made comments about another

Lot 38 b f Choisir – Calaway Cruizer

Choisir needs little introduction as a heavyweight racehorse and international sire. A total of 144 SW, m/f ratio 76/68, and SW/R of 4.67%. Says it all. On the female side of Lot 38,there isn’t much with a 6GFI of 2.0. However, one generation back on the female tail line is Tranquil Star. A true champion filly that won the 1942 Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plates of 1942 and 1944. If Choisir can unlock the right genes, a high quality racehorse will be the result. The PRI score for Lot 38 is 85.8 which is certainly in the winners category.

Choisir: A CHAMPION EVERYWHERE

What about the cross Choisir x High Chaparral? Through his son Starspangledbanner, the Choisir line has produced The Wow Signal (G1 Prix Morny 6f in France, G2 Coventry Stakes in GB) and California Spangle (L race,1811m in Hong Kong).

Lot 48 b c Merchant Navy – Crazyonyou

This horse may be of interest from a breeding aspect. It is an example of a delta cross. We have been down this track before (see Dec 2002 post). In this case the cross between brother (Fastnet Rock) and sister (Saratosa). As discussed before, this type of breeding has produced true champions in the past. Lando, the German super horse a Japan Cup winner, and Habibti, one of Europe’s greatest sprinters are two examples.

In the 2020 sales we recommended Lot 209 (a delta cross between brother Redoute’s Choice and sister Monsoon Wedding) . The horse ran in NZ as Meritable and has done pretty well (5 starts 1-3-0) and has run second in both a G1 and a G2.

It may be difficult to find the right horse in this sale. However, the Inglis May yearling sale 2022 is the place to find them. Good Luck.

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale April 2022

Inglis has two sales of yearlings coming up.  The first-Inglis Gold Yearling Sale,  will be held in Victoria.  With 224 lots there are  some  impressive yearlings available.Here are a couple of my selections:

Lot 160 b c Turffontein – Personal Ensign

Turffontein was a very good sprinter miler with victories in two G1 races. He saluted in both the Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) and the William Reid Stakes (1200m), both races having a proud history. The most important part of his pedigree is the descendance from Storm Cat. This line through Hennessy, Johannesburg,  Giant’s Causeway, Scat Daddy and now Into Mischief who is in the top three sires in the world. At stud Turffontein has performed moderately with 273 runners producing 7 SW. The female line of Personal Ensign is not strong  with a 6GFI of 2.0% But what action there is  around her.

The cross Turffontein to Rubiton mares has produced not one but two SW. Fontein Ruby (Turffontein – Charming Ruby) won the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m), and beat the

Fontiton as Yearling: sister to Lot 160

colts in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m). Fontiton  (Turffontein Infinite Charm) won G2 Blue Diamond Prelude. Lot 160 is a full brother to this filly.   Full brothers and sisters rarely perform the same on the track. In this case you are looking at a glass half full or half empty situation. Half full he could win at G1 level. Even at half empty, I would be surprised if he didn’t win his share of races. He certainly should do something with a PRI score of 99.4!

Lot 53 b c Brazen Beau – Chevovessence

Brazen Beau was an exceptional sprinter who only raced to the end of his 3yo days. He won 3 G1; the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), Lightning Stakes (1000m) and the Newmarket Handicap (1200m). He has got off to a good start at stud with16 SW from 332 starters (4.82%). The dam’s pedigree is nothing exceptional with a 6GFI of 4.76%. It does however, put some stamina into Lot 53.

Brazen Beau; Champion Sprinter

The cross Brazen Beau to an Encosta de Lago mare has already produced a dual G2 SW in Pretty Brazen. She won the Sandown Guineas (1600m) and the Lets Elope (1409m). Lot 53 ticks a lot of boxes with a PRI score of 95.8. The weather should be good so enjoy yourself at the  Inglis Gold Yearling Sale.

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022

The Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022 is the second of their selling season. There are 783 Lots on offer from 99 sires. The catalogue is well balanced between sprinters and stayers. There is also a sprinkling of overseas bred yearlings to compete with those locally bred. Our search of pedigrees looking for suitable candidates for further examination is based on matching top sires with top broodmare sires. The resulting batch of yearlings is further refined using standard pedigree examination techniques.

Lot 127 f Exceed and Excel – Nazca (by Medaglia d’Oro)

The PRI score this filly  is a stellar 99.8. Exceed and Excel has been a wonderful sire both locally and internationally with a W/R ratio of 48.3%. The female line through Nazca is excellent with a 6GFI of 17.1%. This area of the yearling’s pedigree bristles with exceptional horses. Zomorada (by Deploy) is the dam of Dubawi (now ranked second in global sires list) and  In the Wings (by Sadler’s Wells) the sire of Singspiel.

Exceed and Excel: great racehorse and great sire

The cross Exceed and Excel x Medaglia d’Oro has already produced two SW. Aquitaine winner of the L Mick Dittman Plate (1006m), and Bacchanalia winner of L Gosford Guineas.

Medaglia d’Oro is rated the twelfth best broodmare sire in the world.

Lot 463 f Medaglia d’Oro – Devout Heiress (by Speightstown)

A PRI score of 92.1 indicates a horse which should have success on the race track. Medaglia d’Oro is a successful sire (currently ranked tenth in global rankings )  with a W/R ratio of 54.4%. The female line is quite strong with a 6GFI 10.4%. Among the relations are Park Express, a dual G1 winner of both the Nassau Stakes (10f) and Irish Champion Stakes (10f), and dam of New Approach (G1 Epsom Derby).  Alfred Nobel winner of G1 Phoenix Stakes (6f) is also a family member.

The cross  Medaglia d’Oro x Speightstown has a SW/R ratio of 8.70% and produced two SW to date.  Rockefeller won the 2yo Nashua Stakes G3 (1610m), and Whatwasithinking won the 3yo  Auburn Stakes G3 (1200m). Speightstown  is a son of Gone West and is placed 23 in global sire broodmare rankings).

Lot 655 c Magnus – Rathlin Island (by Giant’s Causeway)

A PRI score of 99.2 is spectacular for this yearling.  Giant’s Causeway is currently rated the number five broodmare sire in the world. Consequently, any horse of which he is broodmare sire deserves attention. The female line of Lot 655 had a healthy 6GFI of 8.69% . Included are Mastercraftsman ( European Champion of his year), Hidden Talent (Kentucky Oaks) and Ack Ack (A four times G1 winner and America’s Champion sire of 1994.

Magnus (Flying Spur- Scandinavia); Has plenty of important relations

The cross Magnus x Giant’s Causeway has already produced a G3 winner at 13500m.  Platinum Kingdom won the Fred Best Classic and four L races in NZ including the Dunedin Guineas.

Magnus has not quite lived up to expectations. He certainly has the chance when crosses to this Giant’s Causeway mare.

Lot 779 f Foxwedge – Girona (by Giant’s Causeway)

A PRI score of 88.1 is still high enough to warrant attention. The AEI around this PRI score (expressed as a mean) is $41.7k. Foxwedge is a more than useful sire and of his 21 SW, 16 have been female. Hence Lot 779 is even more interesting. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.12%; while not exceptional it is above average.

The cross Foxwedge x Giant’s Causeway line has already produced the a SW filly Wild Vixen, winner of two L races, Bennet’s Racing Black Pearl 1208m and H C Nitschke Stakes 1400m.

There is no doubt there will be some excellent juveniles at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022. Good luck in finding them.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

Aside

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

Image

The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.

 

Almond Eye and Winx

Almond Eye and Winx. What a contest that would have been! Now the Cox Plate is over for another year it brings back the memories of Winx’s efforts in winning four straight. Her heroics have somewhat overshadowed those of another mare Almond Eye. The careers of these two great mares did indeed overlap; Winx (2013-2019) and Almond Eye  (2018 -2020). Unfortunately, they never met in a race.but on paper there was an opportunity. In the year of the 2018 Cox Plate won by Winx and the 2018 Japan Cup won by Almond Eye. It is interesting to review the highlights of their careers.

Almond Eye

Almond Eye has a superb pedigree. Her sire, Lord Kanaloa was an outstanding sprinter-miler (13 wins and 6 placings from 19 starts). His most notable achievement was back to back wins in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint (1200m). He was Japan’s Horse of the Year in 2013. From the perspective of her dam’s side Almond Eye is probably even more impressive. Her dam,Fusaichi Pandora was the winner of two G1 which included the prestigious Queen Elizabeth II Commemoration Cup (2200m). Her dam was Lotta Lace (Buckpasser – Sex Appeal) which puts her in elite company as a member of the Best in Show family along  with El Gran Senor, Xaar, Rags to Riches, and Redoute’s Choice among others.

Almond Eye: two Japan Cups and a world record for 2400m

The racing career of Almond Eye began modestly enough with a second followed by a win at her first two starts. In 2018 as a 3yo, the glory days took off. First she completed the Japanese fillies triple crown, only the fifth horse to do so. Her form was so impressive that she was installed as favorite for the Japan Cup of that year. Not only did she win but she ran the 2400m in 2.20.6 which broke the race record by 1.5 seconds and was a world record for the distance.  The Australian record is 2.25.2 which has stood for 20 years.

The following year 2019, Almond Eye had her first start in the Middle East where she won The Dubai World Championship. She was expected to travel on to France for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe but injury prevented her making the trip. She resumed racing in the autumn of 2020 and victories continued. When she claimed her 8th G1 win she became the first horse to win 8 G1 races in Japan.  The stage was set for her attempt to win her second Japan Cup. Kiseki set up  a huge lead at the head of a strong International field, but Almond Eye was able to run him down  in what was her final race. She awarded to title of World Champion Horse for 2020.

Winx

The strength of Winx’s pedigree is through her sire Street Cry. An excellent racehorse, a dual G1 winner, and in twelve starts never unplaced.. But as a sire of champions he really excelled. In addition to Winx, Street Cry is the sire of Zenyatta. This mare had 19 straight victories and just failed in her last race when she finished second trying for a second victory in the Breeders Cup Classic. Winx’s female line is not strong with a 6GFI through her dam Vegas Showgirl of only 1.47%. In contrast, Almond Eye has a female line of 9.88%. it will be interesting to see how good the progeny of these mares will turn out to be.

Winx: four Cox Plates and 33 consecutive wins

Like Almond Eye, Winx had a racing career which began low key being successful as a 2yo but winning only one race in her next seven starts. However, a win in the G1 Queensland Oaks coming from way back in the field made racegoers take notice. Resuming her race career as a 4yo she amassed 33 straight victories. Among them four Cox Plates and both the prestigious mile handicaps in Sydney (Epsom and Doncaster). Winx was invincible in Australia and was anointed Australian Horses of the year four years in succession 2015-2018.

Too bad Almond Eye and Winx never met on the race track. The clash of these two great mares would have been an event worth going miles to see.

 

Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

The Breeders Cup World Championship have just been completed at Del Mar in California. Fastnet Rock (Danehill – Piccadilly Circus ) was an Aussie with a presence and he did us proud. The Spring Carnivals in Melbourne and Sydney are not truly World Championships. You need the best in the world competing. These horses were in Del Mar. The Melbourne Cup is the only local race that attracts sufficient world interest of horses, trainers, jockeys  and the general public. This is a fact.  It doesn’t matter what the well oiled PR machines might say. It is also irrelevant to how much money is thrown at the various races.

The races at Del Mar attracted the best in America, Europe and Japan. Dermott Wells was there; Aiden O’Brien with a big string of horses and Godolphin in force. Unfortunately, John Gosden was unable to bring Mishriff (French Derby winner,3xG1 this year and arguably the world’s best horse) for the Breeders Cup Classic or Turf. He was early favorite for the race.

Fastnet Rock Waves the Aussie Flag

Australia had a significant representation in the World Championship Juvenile (2yo) Fillies race on Turf. Pizza Bianca ( Fastnet Rock – White Hot) was coming off a second in the

Fastnet Rock : fast Racehorse Super Sire and now Broodmare Sire

G1 Natalma Stakes following up her win in a Maiden at her first start. After starting the race well, the filly dropped back and was last coming into the straight. The jockey (Jose Ortiz Jr ) and Pizza Bianca formed a masterful  combination as they weaved their way past and through the entire field  to win going away. Her breeder/owner Celebrity Chef Bobby Flay praised the efforts of his trainer Christolphe Clemete with his first win in the Breeder’s Cup after 40 attempts.  Pizza Bianca is superbly bred. Her dam White Hot never raced but she is a daughter of Gwynn the dam of the 2011 Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi (Montjeu – Gwynn ).

Australia’s other interest in the race was the previously unbeaten Koala Princess (More than Ready- Koala Queen by Lonhro). Sent out the favorite in the race but caught wide and finished 21/4 lengths from the winner.

Seeing the horses competing in the Breeder’s Cup World Championship was great viewing.

 

 

Breeding Strategy

Should a breeder persevere with a breeding strategy based on pedigree analysis or chop and change to meet the current fashion? The latter is perused by many who want to make money at auction and it is very successful. But does it produce champion racehorses? The breeding season is well underway but perhaps it is not too late to put down an  observation from my current work. I must confess my clients in Japan and America are much more interested in breeding a champion than getting a quick buck at a yearling sale. I have been examining elements of the Best in Show broodmare line and it is a fascinating tale. There is no doubt Best in Show initiated the most successful female line in the last 50 years and it continues. Volumes could be written about the exploits of her family but space restricts me to an example.

Best in Show

There is nothing outstanding in the Best in Show pedigree. Her sire Traffic Judge was a good racehorse winning 2G1 ,2G2, 1G3, and was a moderately successful sire with five SW in 172 progeny. Her dam Stolen Hour was not a SW; 6 wins in 38 starts shows talent and soundness. In fact in the female tail line there is no SW back as far as 1728! However, on the female side of the pedigree there are two powerful genetic influences, War Admiral and La Troienne.; But these are present in other female lines that didn’t start a dynasty. There is just something special about Best in Show. She was sold for $25,000 at the 1966 Keenland sales.  A useful race horse winning $53,880 in 27 Starts; 5 wins, three seconds, and four thirds. Among her victories was the G3 Comely Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile.

Best in Show Breeding Career

Her sixteen offspring included four SW (two  fillies, Blush with Pride and Monroe, and two Colts Gielgud and Malinowski ). Best in Show’s  greatness came from these and all her other fillies who were not SW.. The difference between Best in Show and other female lines is that they may experienced their fifteen minutes of fame but this did not extend to all the racing jurisdictions of the world. In addition they may have produced SW but not absolute champion horses which excelled on the track and in the breeding barn. We should notice that the Best in Show line has 14 horses that weren’t SW but they were still powerful performers. One of her fillies Sex Appeal by Buckpasser,  illustrates this      .

I know something about her as my horse Nishiazabu was inbred 4m x4f to Sex Appeal. This horse was a stayer who won Australia’s longest flat race (3600m) and subsequently a Horse of the Year nomination. Sex Appeal was unraced but she inherited the genes to make champions. So a breeding strategy .based on looking closely at the female pedigree won’t go astray. So you don’t necessarily need a SW. What you need is a sound breeding strategy based on pedigree and to persevere with it..

Inglis Ready to Race Sale October 2021

The catalogue for the Inglis Ready to Race October 2021 is now available. Ready to race sales have advantages over conventional yearling sales. The horses are broken in, fit to race and prospective buyers can see the horse’s action from their breeze up videos. There is also a record of the time they are capable of running. You will probably pay more dollars for this information. The advantage of seeing a horse run should not be underestimated. Those who have been following my posts will know that I selected fourteen yearlings during the 2019-2020 sales period. These horses are now 3yo. Of the fourteen, all have been named, but only 6 have started in a race.  Of these, three have won and another placed. For the other eight, their 2yo career is over. Dreams of a Golden Slipper triumph evaporated. Of the one hundred and eighty-five 2yo on offer at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale I have looked for fast horses with PRI back up.

Dosage and Fast Horses

The Dosage system attempts to put a numerical analysis on the pedigree of a horse which is based on its Speed and Stamina. For those interested I would recommend Steve Roman’s book “Dosage Pedigree and Performance”. The data can be utilized in a number of ways. One choice is to establish a Dosage Index (DI) which is simply a measure of speed to stamina.  The Table shows the range of values for the DI for a number of races as well as for champion sprinters in Australia in the last ten years or so. The data can also be arranged to provide a value for Centre of Distribution (CD). This figure marks the balancing point of a pedigree between speed and stamina and it is displayed by a number between +2 and -2. A positive number shows speed outranks stamina and a negative number stamina out ranks speed. The Table below sets out some DI and CD values of relevance.

It is clear from the data that the range of values for speed horses, (2yo in the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond, and that of Champion Australian sprinters) show different dosage profiles from the horses that have won the Melbourne Cup and the UK St Leger.

Dosage Ratings of Horses at the Inglis Sale

I did not measure the DI and CD values of all the horses in the sale. I cut the list to those where there was a reasonable quantity of data available and selected three horses for comment. Lots 93.45 and 79 should have exceptional speed. In fact, lot 93 is more like a quarter horse. However, the low PRI score probably means it could run out of breath rather quickly. Lots 45 and 79 have strong PRI scores to back up their speed rating. It will be interesting to see how they go. Paper studies are useful but so is the real thing and to see that you need to look at the information provided at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale in October.