Tag Archives: 6GFI

Inglis Ready2Race Sale 2022

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Inglis Ready2Race sale will shortly be underway. For the purchaser of a race horse   ready to run sales have an advantage over traditional yearling sales. The horses have been broken in and their performance both live and on video is there for all to see. The costs of getting a horse to the point where it can show what it can do have already been met. Vendors hope/expect to recover these costs in the sale. So prices will generally be higher than those at a traditional auction sale

However, selecting the right horse still follows the standard procedures. Pedigree analysis is a good guide to performance. I have selected two horses at the Inglis Ready2Race sale which I believe worthy of consideration.

Lot 62 b f More Than Ready – State of Play

More Than Ready needs little introduction and we have commented on his prowess before. A producer of 377 SW almost equally split between males and females and 7230 winners overall. It’s a record that’s hard to beat.  Fastnet Rock is just getting warmed up as a broodmare sire. The cross More Than Ready x Fastnet Rock has already produced 6 SW (SW/R 5.4%). Sejardan is the most successful to date (G2 Todman Slipper,1208m, and G3 Arrowfield Breeders Plate). It is worth noting  that 5/6 of the SW have all won as 2yo. The PRI score of 98.8 suggests this filly could add to the list.

More than Ready: a Champion in every way

Another positive for Lot 62 is her very strong female bottom line which has a 6GFI of 13.6%.  There are some very impressive females in this list: Denise Joy, More Joyous, Sunday Joy, and Joie Denise. These go along with the males Primus and Thorn Park. Plenty of talent here!

Lot 206 b c Epaulette – Juliet’s Princess

 

Epualette has been a constant producer of winners in Australia before he moved to Turkey in October 2021. A producer of 19 SW his SW/R Ratio is 3.51%. The female line has a respectable 6GFI of 7.92%. Churchill Downs is part of the female bottom line. There is also a strong element of Argentinian blood lines. Fairy Magic (triple G1 Winner) and Fain (G1 winner and Argentine Horse of the year in 1986).

The cross Epaulette x More Than Ready has already produced a SW in Hong Kong. Covert Operations scored in the L National Day Cup over 1006m. Lot 206 has a PRI score of 90.4 which suggests a winner.

These Ready to Race events are fun to be at and the Inglis Ready2Race event is no exception.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

Aside

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

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So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales Round 2

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Inglis Easter Yearling Sale Round 2

There are some nice horses for sale here. There are plenty from sires that started their careers in 2017 and whose progeny are rising 2yo. They have not yet raced. This means that an evaluation based on the performance of SW progeny of the sire is not possible. There is no data. It will start  accumulating when the new racing season commences.The overall difficulty of assessing potential winners is increased and we to rely more on other factors. The 6 Generation Female Index (6GFI) and the Mares ’Mating Index (MMI) are two tools that can help. The PRI, which is a data based system isn’t much help as 60% of the data is missing.

Mares’ Mating Index

This is calculated from information on stake winners found in the last 3 generations of the broodmare’s family. The exercise is carried out for every individual mare in a stallion’s book for a selected year. The results can be related to the overall strength of the broodmare band. I applied this technique to the mares served by twenty-two stallions who started their stud career in 2017. Those mares sent to American Pharoah topped the list at 787.9 points. This was 8% higher than the second placed band of mares and 165% higher than the lowest ranked group. I must admit to being a fan of American Pharoah as I was at Churchill Downs with 180,000 others to watch him win the Kentucky Derby. With the help of Jay Hovdey, America’s Leading Racing Journalist, Bob Moses a Victorian Owner and I picked the trifecta. Fort Knox is just down the road but it wasn’t needed.

Six Generation Female index

This is the percentage of Stake Winners in the tail female line. When obtaining this data, it becomes apparent where the stake winners are clustered and you need your mare to be as close as possible to these clusters. It doesn’t always happen like this but it is better to be with a group than by your own.

American Pharoah Progeny

American Pharoah in 2015 became the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. There have only been 13 horses to take that title. His credentials as a superior

American Pharoah wins the third leg of the triple crown

racehorse are high. One would expect him to be a successful sire, but he has to prove it. American Pharoah is shown to have the best book of mares of the 22 examined. Hence we have zeroed in on his progeny. There are five yearlings at the sale by the following mares. All have dosage values which show they should be sprinters:

Sucker Punch 13.8; Paris Who 7.5; Joie d’Espirit 5.2; Tornado Miss 4.0; Amberio 3.3; Angel Face 1.0.

The colt by Sucker Punch has the strongest female family by far. Although the catalogue doesn’t show it, the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist is not far away in the pedigree so he is definitely worth a look.  Not too many mare pedigrees have two Golden Slipper winners up close.