PRI Analysis Reviewed for 2020 Yearlings

The importance of a  pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a  more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.

Selections from 2020 Sales

Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and  produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:

Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales

Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.

The selections were made addressing a  number of pedigree relevant issues

  • Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters,  Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
  • For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
  • I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
Conclusions

It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”.  The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses).  This comparison appears in the table below

I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

Aside

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares ? (Part 5)

The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.

Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)

Race Track Performance

Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.

Arcadia Queen-great race mare

Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)

This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.

Stallion Selection

Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.  I am Invincible is considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.

Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)

In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.

                                      Black Caviar Breeding History

According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case.  Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!

 

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 3 )

MM Sale Part 3 Racefillies

The sale of racefillies is an important part of this MM Sale Series.  It may well be that the broodmare of your choice has been served by a stallion you are not comfortable with. Another reason may be the perceived increased price of the mare or perhaps the pedigree of the future foal indicates that it is a poor match. I covered this in my last post. You have another option. Purchasing a race filly where you can select a stallion of your choice. Where do you start? I suggest you look at the broodmare statistics for W/R (winners /runners) . Ignore any statistics based on prize money. Since NSW created these huge purse races this data is of little use.

Savabeel (Zabeel – Savannah Success

Savabeel making his mark as a broodmare sire

The son of Zabeel  is currently second on the list of broodmare sires on the basis on a W/R of 39.2%.. He is the broodmare sire of 13 SW including the G1 winner of this year’s Goodwood Handicap  Saxatoxl (Kuroshio –  Li’l Miss Hayley). There are five racefillies for sale in the MM catalogue: Lots 526,574, 575, 615,and 671. Of these fillies Lot 526 Missybeel (Savabeel – Sitting Pretty) has the highest MMI score of  450.Her 6GFI is 7.69. suggesting the female line is reasonably strong. Keeper (Danehill – Nuwirah) also a winner of the Goodwood Handicap is part of the family.

Stallion Selection 

We have examined Missybeel and decided she meets our criteria of what a good broodmare should be. The next step is to examine her pedigree to assess what bloodlines are a suitable match. My homework says look at stallions down the Green Desert line ( Danzig – Foreign Courier). Thirty percent  of Savabeel’s SW as a broodmare sire are from this line of stallions.

Fascino>Charm Spirit>Invincible Spirit> Green Desert

Free of Will>Power>Oasis Dream>Green Desert 

Cloud Surfing>Oasis Dream>Green Desert

Stella De Paco>Paco Boy> Desert Style>Green Desert

And there are plenty around. Seven at the last count and growing.

Using the new sire Magna Grecia (Invincible Spirit – Cabaret) as a  test I calculated a PRI score for the cross Magna Grecia – Missybeel of 73.3 which is very high considering the sire has no SW at present. I also did Lot 575 (Shimmer Lake : Savabeel – Grey Swallow ) with Magna Grecia for a PRI score of 68.6.  So I believe using the Green Desert connection puts you  on the right track.

The sale of racefillies is always exciting and the MM is the place to be.

Services

Introduction

Whatever way you look at it owning and racing a horse is going to cost you money. There is certainly a payback in terms of enjoyment but this is only significant if it wins or at least runs well. Don’t forget the size of your capital investment is a once off thing. On-going training and maintenance costs probably average over $40,000/year and even if shared are a considerable cost. Before you make a decision for few hundred dollars we can supply services to support your intentions..

Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)

PRI: Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees is a method we have developed to link a horse’s pedigree with its likely racing performance. PRI is a quantitative measurement with the result being expressed as percentage between 0 and 100. This number is compared with our data base of over 300 horses.

PRI is useful in horses in ready to race sales and calculating the likely racing ability of yearlings and progeny from a breeding outcome.

Broodmares and Progeny

For horse breeders PRI is useful tool for choosing a suitable stallion for a mare as it provides a quantitative comparison between options. We can provide a quantitative assessment of any mare using the broodmare indexing system we have built up. Any report can include a six generation female index (6GFI), traditional breeding options such as line-breeding, dosage, breeding history etc.

What are the Costs?

How much you want to spend on the investigation depends on your level of investment. For example, if you are buying do want to want to know the chances of a horse being a winner? Then the cost will be about $300. Do you want to rank the best of five you are considering buying at a sale? It will cost about $1,000. Do you want to know which stallion to put a mare to? Then the first question is how much do you want to pay for a service fee and how far do you want to ship the mare. The cost will be about $500 for one stallion and $1,000 for three possibilities. A report can be tailor made to your requirements.

All our investigations are confidential and independent – we have no allegiance to any third party.

 

If you are interested in the services that we offer you can  phone Dr Bob on 0417540698.or contact us through either our Contacts Page or E-mail our abjjem@bigpond.com.

 

 

Can a Cheap Horse be a Stakes Winner?

Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.

The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.

Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)

Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)

This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score.    She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1

Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)

He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score.  His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.

Broodmare Sires

Pentire is the broodmare sire of Opalescence. His SW/R is 4.6% which is low but not hopeless compared with other broodmare sires in NZ, Northern Hemisphere, and Australia. (See Table 2). The same applies to  Danzero, the broodmare sire of Paniagua.

Other Pedigree Examination Tools

Oasis Dream

Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert.  Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross.  Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses.  But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.

Conclusions

Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”

Did a Pedigree Analysis Predict of the Result of the Victorian Derby?

Well both yes and no; a pedigree analysis  of the Victoria Derby of 2020,did not absolutely predict the winner but did get three of the first four place getters. A synopsis of this analysis is in three parts:

Sire Line and PRI Scores

We suggested that the winner would most likely come from one of four sire lines: Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, Sir Tristram or Halo. Johnny Get Angry comes from Tavistock>Montjeu>Sadler’s Wells. The PRI scores were not put in the Blog but are

The finishing predictions based only on Victorian Derby pedigree analysis were slightly better than the betting order and certainly better for Johnny Get Angry. The PRI failure to recognize Young Werther is a mystery. Although he had few starts, that should have little influence on his score. The cross in his pedigree of the Tavistock line stallions x Cure the Blues was very poor. There were 18 Points lost here which would have raised his score to 85.6, slightly above that of the winner. I am afraid it is an imperfect world.

Deeper Pedigree Analysis for Johnny Get Angry

The more you look at this horse the better he becomes.

1 Sires

Column three of any pedigree contains the major sire lines of influence. For stayers it is hard to beat the quartet of Sadler’s Wells, Quest for Fame, Sir Tristram, and Singspiel. For those unfamiliar with Singspiel he won a Japan Cup, a Dubai World Cup, and has provided a male line to 97SW with a 1.1% G1 winners to runners. If these four stallions were not mutually compatible it would have shown up in the PRI Score

Singspiel-Great Racehorse and Sire

2 Tail Dam line

The power is show by going back three generations; Pavlova>Hospitable>Fetoon.

  • Fetoon was the dam of Markam (by Salieri), winner G1 South Australian Derby 2500m and also of Hospitable (by Luskin Star).
  • Hospitable was the dam of Fubu (by Last Tycoon), a winner of VATC Shannon Classic G2 1800m, and Pavlova (by Singspiel) who won the MVRC JRA Cup over 2040m (L)
  • Pavlova didn’t achieve much except the mating with Zabeel to produce Luminova the dam of Johnny Get Angry

All in all, a wonderful stayers pedigree for a horse to carry into the Victorian Derby, but as Robert Blake famously said “Hindsight is a wonderful thing…………………….”

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares? (Part 3)

 The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse.

Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013.  Certainly, a great race mare.

Can Black Caviar break the curse?

Is there a factor which hinders quality race mares producing outstanding racing progeny? A partial answer is in the scientific paper by A J Wlson and A Rambaut, Biol Lett 2008 Apr23; 4(2):173-175.After examining the outcomes of 554 active stallions producing 4476 foals, they concluded:

Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”

As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy.  However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.

Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)

Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzel filly is the pick of the bunch. It will be  interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviar fans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.

Is Danehill Inbreeding a Pedigree Mistake

Is Danehill Inbreeding a Pedigree Mistake?

Danehill inbreeding has produced mixed results but is Danehill inbreeding a mistake? For sometime there has been much discussion that Danehill x Danehill would not increase the chances of producing black type horses. The matter appeared to be settled until Guelph (Danehill 2mx3f) won at G1 level. However, may I remind the resurgent believers of the old saying that given a typewriter (computer with Word 2016?), a monkey will eventually produce the entire works of Shakespeare.  I think the excellent work of John Boyce proves that Danehill inbreeding produces less SW than outcrossing..

               Danehill

What does the Data Show?

In the total thoroughbred racehorse population, about 2% will be black type winners. John took the data from 12,640 runners from 26 stallions who had at least 25 or more runners inbred to Danehill.

The percentage of runners achieving black type wins in this overall group was 4.9%. However, among these runners was 1,815 who carried at least one duplication to Danehill. The percentage of SW dropped to 3.2%.  This sample is significant in statistical terms. Inbreeding to Danehill produces less SW than outcrossing.

Danehill yearlings at MM National Sale August 2020

Though inbreeding to Danehill may not be a great choice, it still produces more SW than the average. There are two factors of influence when looking for a yearling inbred to Danehill.

  • The 3 x 3 cross has been the most productive. 3f x 3m has produced 25 SW with (5xG1,2xG2,8xG3,6xL). The 3m x 3m cross has produced 21SW, and 3m x 3f fourteen and its downhill from there.
  • A handful of sires have produced more SW through inbreeding, than outcrossing. Of these only Choisir is represented at this sale.
Can Pedigree Racing Index (PRI) help make a selection?

There are eight yearlings in the Sale that are inbred 3 x 3 to Danehill:

Lot No                              Pedigree                      RI score

1274    b f           Smart Missile-Myanma                 91.7

1371   bf f           Choisir-Watabout                          90.0

1484   br c          Teofilo-Feline Flye                      74.2

1642   b or br c  Your Song -Stage Performer         66.3

1674   b c          Hallowed Crown – Ailish                 65.0

1407   b c         Epaulette – Bantry House                64.2

1419  b f          Your Song -Breezing Home             59.4

1439  b f          Hallowed Crown -Darby’s Bid          59.2

The PRI scores show the Lots 1274 and 1371 have a good chance of being city winners  perhaps even going higher. The others will probably be struggling. Choisir has a better chance than most Danehill stallions to take advantage of inbreeding to Danehill so he would be worth a look. He is probably the fastest of the eight according to my Dosage evaluation.

PRI is a way of evaluation the sires side of the pedigree. To complete your evaluation you need to look at the dam’s side. And don’t forget the physical evaluation.

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales Round 2

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale Round 2

There are some nice horses for sale here. There are plenty from sires that started their careers in 2017 and whose progeny are rising 2yo. They have not yet raced. This means that an evaluation based on the performance of SW progeny of the sire is not possible. There is no data. It will start  accumulating when the new racing season commences.The overall difficulty of assessing potential winners is increased and we to rely more on other factors. The 6 Generation Female Index (6GFI) and the Mares ’Mating Index (MMI) are two tools that can help. The PRI, which is a data based system isn’t much help as 60% of the data is missing.

Mares’ Mating Index

This is calculated from information on stake winners found in the last 3 generations of the broodmare’s family. The exercise is carried out for every individual mare in a stallion’s book for a selected year. The results can be related to the overall strength of the broodmare band. I applied this technique to the mares served by twenty-two stallions who started their stud career in 2017. Those mares sent to American Pharoah topped the list at 787.9 points. This was 8% higher than the second placed band of mares and 165% higher than the lowest ranked group. I must admit to being a fan of American Pharoah as I was at Churchill Downs with 180,000 others to watch him win the Kentucky Derby. With the help of Jay Hovdey, America’s Leading Racing Journalist, Bob Moses a Victorian Owner and I picked the trifecta. Fort Knox is just down the road but it wasn’t needed.

Six Generation Female index

This is the percentage of Stake Winners in the tail female line. When obtaining this data, it becomes apparent where the stake winners are clustered and you need your mare to be as close as possible to these clusters. It doesn’t always happen like this but it is better to be with a group than by your own.

American Pharoah Progeny

American Pharoah in 2015 became the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. There have only been 13 horses to take that title. His credentials as a superior

American Pharoah wins the third leg of the triple crown

racehorse are high. One would expect him to be a successful sire, but he has to prove it. American Pharoah is shown to have the best book of mares of the 22 examined. Hence we have zeroed in on his progeny. There are five yearlings at the sale by the following mares. All have dosage values which show they should be sprinters:

Sucker Punch 13.8; Paris Who 7.5; Joie d’Espirit 5.2; Tornado Miss 4.0; Amberio 3.3; Angel Face 1.0.

The colt by Sucker Punch has the strongest female family by far. Although the catalogue doesn’t show it, the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist is not far away in the pedigree so he is definitely worth a look.  Not too many mare pedigrees have two Golden Slipper winners up close.

PRI:Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees

Racing Performance x Racing Performance V Pedigree x Racing Performance (PRI)

The study of pedigrees is a wonderful way of getting close to the greatest race horses in history but how can we link that knowledge to the goal of breeding a superior race horse?  Superior is defined in simple terms by the ability to win races and earn stake money and at least pay its way. We need to be able to use pedigree to predict racing ability. The Sales Catalogs do this to a degree but these documents are selling an outcome based on racing performance X racing performance. They may or may not be necessarily linked. What we need to look at is an outcome showing racing performance based on pedigree X pedigree. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is tool for predicting racing ability.

John Henry Rated 23rd in America’s top 100 horses of the 20th Century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Use of a Pedigree Racing Index  (PRI)

PRI is a tool we have developed for predicting racing ability. PRI will link racing performance to pedigree.. The process involves measuring the compatibility of stallions in the first four generations and applying statistical methods to come up with a % figure which is related to the probability of the horse being a superior race horse.  We can then relate this number to the library of PRI scores for a number of horses which Flavone B&R  has built up over the years. The PRI scores in the library range from 100 to 43.3. Only two horses have received 100% and between them they won 14 Stakes races with 5G1 and massed more than $5.5m in earnings.

Does the PRI system work? The only evidence I can show is the results of my breeding program over the last 12 or so years.: My mares cost between $3,250 and $11,000:

Named Winners Wins Placed Stakes Av $
19 13 37 2 $888,817 46,779

Is the PRI analysis foolproof? Certainly not. It occasionally throws up results that aren’t easy to explain. However, it is still a very useful tool as the following will demonstrate. At the yearling sales a few years ago a friend of mine bred a horse by Encosta De Lago and it made $250,000. I had already given this horse a PRI of 47.3 and believed it would probably never win a race but I didn’t think it was my prerogative to tell either the breeder or the purchaser of my opinion. The horse is racing in Hong Kong and last week I looked for the performance of the now 6yo. I was wrong-it has won 2 minor  races but it took 38 starts to do it. A PRI analysis might have avoided the expenditure for such a limited return.

Racing and Breeding Outcomes

 

Measuring Breeding and Racing Outcomes

                    English Channel Foal

There is no system using pedigree analysis and racing performance that can guarantee  breeding and racing outcomes. Biological systems are too complex. What we can do is use all the information which is available to build up a profile about each horse we are investigating. This combination of techniques will bring closer finding or breeding a superior horse than relying on random selection. It’s a bit like using a check list-the more boxes that are checked positively the closer you will be to your goals To reach a successful requires extensive use of data bases and these data bases have only become readily available through the expansion of the internet. This has enabled breeding and racing outcomes to be more closely matched.

Data Bases

We make extensive use of both free and subscription data bases including:

https://g1goldmine.com/

https://www.tesiopower.com/

http://www.studbook.org.au/

https://racingaustralia.horse/

http://www.stallions.com.au/

We also occasionally use the general internet and racing sites in NZ, USA, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Africa. 

Racehorse Evaluation

We can evaluate a horse as it stands or will become as the result of a mating using

  • Horse and family racing records.
  • Line breeding in the pedigree of the horse and proof that it has worked in the past.
  • Inbreeding especially for daughters from high quality mares.
  • A  Six Generation Female index (6GFI) from Stake Winners in the female tail line.
  • Data to provide a PRI matched against similar horses in our data base.
  • A Dosage evaluation.
Recommendations for breeding a mare

To provide a report on Stallion selection the following methods will be employed such as:

  •  complete pedigree analysis to identify the merit of line breeding and inbreeding
  • A Six Generation Female Index  (6GFI) from  Stake Winners in the female tail line
  • Identification of  Stallions for a compatibility match and which are available
  • Assessment of previous breeding outcomes and the breeding and racing results of the immediate family
  • Broodmares stallion performance
  • Stallion’s breeding record     

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We offer a Thoroughbred Pedigree Analysis service for Broodmare Mating and Stallion Credentials as well as our  PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) analysis system.

PRI provides an excellent additional tool for relating pedigree to potential racing Ability.…………..

What makes a good race horse?

GREAT RACEHORSE GREAT PEDIGREE

Galileo: Great Pedigree and Racing Ability

According to the experts there are three factors: Genetics, Environment, and Luck. About 35% of racing ability is inherited according to experts which may explain why horses who have impeccable pedigrees fail to fire on the track. However, unless a horse possess the right genes, the rest won’t matter.  Pedigree and Racing ability can be meshed. A PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is a new tool which can assist  a pedigree analysis. PRI  comes from linking pedigree and racing ability. Environmental influences include such factors such as nutrition, training methods and the age and sex of the horse.

The role of luck!

Statistically speaking, luck will even out over many runs and a considerable length of time. However, a thoroughbred’s career generally doesn’t stretch that far. About 25 is the  average number of runs in Australia for each horse. Not long enough to remove the bad luck factor. Bad barriers, wet or hard tracks, exceptional opposition, jockeys mistakes can all affect the outcome of the race. The bad luck factor covers all of these.

                  Invincible Spirit the world’s latest Super Sire

Genetics

Of the three factors, genetics is the most important. A poor quality horse is unlikely to win the Oakleigh Plate even if it draws barrier 1 and has Australia’s best jockey aboard. In human terms, a 5’8” man is unlikely to play in the NBA no matter what his ball skills or attitude to training are. The ability conferred by his genetics is not there for the job. Hence it is important to produce the best progeny available from the stallion/mare cross. To do this the breeder has to use all the information he or she can muster . Similarly a purchaser must also understand these matters to ensure their investment is based on the soundest analysis they can make.  

PRI: linking pedigree and racing ability 

The traditional way of assessing a horses chances on the racetrack requires a detailed pedigree analysis. The breeder/purchaser can make employ a number of various breeding theories to measure a horse’s likely ability on the track. We have developed a new addition to improve this analysis which is termed the Pedigree Racing Index (PRI). This measures the link between  pedigree and racing ability. Decisions about the breeding program for a mare will benefit from a PRI score. Similarly, additional information for an existing horse can influence a purchase decision. The PRI  score is  assessed against the horses in our data base. Similarly ,for virtual horses contemplated as part of a breeding program. Contact Dr Bob on  0417540698 for a chat.