There are some nice horses for sale here. There are plenty from sires that started their careers in 2017 and whose progeny are rising 2yo. They have not yet raced. This means that an evaluation based on the performance of SW progeny of the sire is not possible. There is no data. It will start accumulating when the new racing season commences.The overall difficulty of assessing potential winners is increased and we to rely more on other factors. The 6 Generation Female Index (6GFI) and the Mares ’Mating Index (MMI) are two tools that can help. The PRI, which is a data based system isn’t much help as 60% of the data is missing.
Mares’ Mating Index
This is calculated from information on stake winners found in the last 3 generations of the broodmare’s family. The exercise is carried out for every individual mare in a stallion’s book for a selected year. The results can be related to the overall strength of the broodmare band. I applied this technique to the mares served by twenty-two stallions who started their stud career in 2017. Those mares sent to American Pharoah topped the list at 787.9 points. This was 8% higher than the second placed band of mares and 165% higher than the lowest ranked group. I must admit to being a fan of American Pharoah as I was at Churchill Downs with 180,000 others to watch him win the Kentucky Derby. With the help of Jay Hovdey, America’s Leading Racing Journalist, Bob Moses a Victorian Owner and I picked the trifecta. Fort Knox is just down the road but it wasn’t needed.
Six Generation Female index
This is the percentage of Stake Winners in the tail female line. When obtaining this data, it becomes apparent where the stake winners are clustered and you need your mare to be as close as possible to these clusters. It doesn’t always happen like this but it is better to be with a group than by your own.
American Pharoah Progeny
American Pharoah in 2015 became the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. There have only been 13 horses to take that title. His credentials as a superior
American Pharoah wins the third leg of the triple crown
racehorse are high. One would expect him to be a successful sire, but he has to prove it. American Pharoahis shown to have the best book of mares of the 22 examined. Hence we have zeroed in on his progeny. There are five yearlings at the sale by the following mares. All have dosage values which show they should be sprinters:
Sucker Punch 13.8; Paris Who 7.5; Joie d’Espirit 5.2; Tornado Miss 4.0; Amberio 3.3; Angel Face 1.0.
The colt by Sucker Punch has the strongest female family by far. Although the catalogue doesn’t show it, the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist is not far away in the pedigree so he is definitely worth a look. Not too many mare pedigrees have two Golden Slipper winners up close.
Racing Performance x Racing Performance V Pedigree x Racing Performance (PRI)
The study of pedigrees is a wonderful way of getting close to the greatest race horses in history but how can we link that knowledge to the goal of breeding a superior race horse? Superior is defined in simple terms by the ability to win races and earn stake money and at least pay its way. We need to be able to use pedigree to predict racing ability. The Sales Catalogs do this to a degree but these documents are selling an outcome based on racing performance X racing performance. They may or may not be necessarily linked. What we need to look at is an outcome showing racing performance based on pedigree X pedigree. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is tool for predicting racing ability.
John Henry Rated 23rd in America’s top 100 horses of the 20th Century.
Use of a Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)
PRI is a tool we have developed for predicting racing ability. PRI will link racing performance to pedigree.. The process involves measuring the compatibility of stallions in the first four generations and applying statistical methods to come up with a % figure which is related to the probability of the horse being a superior race horse. We can then relate this number to the library of PRI scores for a number of horses which Flavone B&R has built up over the years. The PRI scores in the library range from 100 to 43.3. Only two horses have received 100% and between them they won 14 Stakes races with 5G1 and massed more than $5.5m in earnings.
Does the PRI system work? The only evidence I can show is the results of my breeding program over the last 12 or so years.: My mares cost between $3,250 and $11,000:
Named
Winners
Wins
Placed
Stakes
Av $
19
13
37
2
$888,817
46,779
Is the PRI analysis foolproof? Certainly not. It occasionally throws up results that aren’t easy to explain. However, it is still a very useful tool as the following will demonstrate. At the yearling sales a few years ago a friend of mine bred a horse by Encosta De Lagoand it made $250,000. I had already given this horse a PRI of 47.3 and believed it would probably never win a race but I didn’t think it was my prerogative to tell either the breeder or the purchaser of my opinion. The horse is racing in Hong Kong and last week I looked for the performance of the now 6yo. I was wrong-it has won 2 minor races but it took 38 starts to do it. A PRI analysis might have avoided the expenditure for such a limited return.
There is no system using pedigree analysis and racing performance that can guarantee breeding and racing outcomes. Biological systems are too complex. What we can do is use all the information which is available to build up a profile about each horse we are investigating. This combination of techniques will bring closer finding or breeding a superior horse than relying on random selection. It’s a bit like using a check list-the more boxes that are checked positively the closer you will be to your goals To reach a successful requires extensive use of data bases and these data bases have only become readily available through the expansion of the internet. This has enabled breeding and racing outcomes to be more closely matched.
Data Bases
We make extensive use of both free and subscription data bases including:
We offer a Thoroughbred Pedigree Analysis service for Broodmare Mating and Stallion Credentials as well as our PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) analysis system.
PRI provides an excellent additional tool for relating pedigree to potential racing Ability.…………..
What makes a good race horse?
Galileo: Great Pedigree and Racing Ability
According to the experts there are three factors: Genetics, Environment, and Luck. About 35% of racing ability is inherited according to experts which may explain why horses who have impeccable pedigrees fail to fire on the track. However, unless a horse possess the right genes, the rest won’t matter. Pedigree and Racing ability can be meshed. A PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is a new tool which can assist a pedigree analysis. PRI comes from linking pedigree and racing ability. Environmental influences include such factors such as nutrition, training methods and the age and sex of the horse.
The role of luck!
Statistically speaking, luck will even out over many runs and a considerable length of time. However, a thoroughbred’s career generally doesn’t stretch that far. About 25 is the average number of runs in Australia for each horse. Not long enough to remove the bad luck factor. Bad barriers, wet or hard tracks, exceptional opposition, jockeys mistakes can all affect the outcome of the race. The bad luck factor covers all of these.
Invincible Spirit the world’s latest Super Sire
Genetics
Of the three factors, genetics is the most important. A poor quality horse is unlikely to win the Oakleigh Plate even if it draws barrier 1 and has Australia’s best jockey aboard. In human terms, a 5’8” man is unlikely to play in the NBA no matter what his ball skills or attitude to training are. The ability conferred by his genetics is not there for the job. Hence it is important to produce the best progeny available from the stallion/mare cross. To do this the breeder has to use all the information he or she can muster . Similarly a purchaser must also understand these matters to ensure their investment is based on the soundest analysis they can make.
PRI: linking pedigree and racing ability
The traditional way of assessing a horses chances on the racetrack requires a detailed pedigree analysis. The breeder/purchaser can make employ a number of various breeding theories to measure a horse’s likely ability on the track. We have developed a new addition to improve this analysis which is termed the Pedigree Racing Index (PRI). This measures the link between pedigree and racing ability. Decisions about the breeding program for a mare will benefit from a PRI score. Similarly, additional information for an existing horse can influence a purchase decision. The PRI score is assessed against the horses in our data base. Similarly ,for virtual horses contemplated as part of a breeding program. Contact Dr Bob on 0417540698 for a chat.
