PRI:Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees

Racing Performance x Racing Performance V Pedigree x Racing Performance (PRI)

The study of pedigrees is a wonderful way of getting close to the greatest race horses in history but how can we link that knowledge to the goal of breeding a superior race horse?  Superior is defined in simple terms by the ability to win races and earn stake money and at least pay its way. We need to be able to use pedigree to predict racing ability. The Sales Catalogs do this to a degree but these documents are selling an outcome based on racing performance X racing performance. They may or may not be necessarily linked. What we need to look at is an outcome showing racing performance based on pedigree X pedigree. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is tool for predicting racing ability.

John Henry Rated 23rd in America’s top 100 horses of the 20th Century.












Use of a Pedigree Racing Index  (PRI)

PRI is a tool we have developed for predicting racing ability. PRI will link racing performance to pedigree.. The process involves measuring the compatibility of stallions in the first four generations and applying statistical methods to come up with a % figure which is related to the probability of the horse being a superior race horse.  We can then relate this number to the library of PRI scores for a number of horses which Flavone B&R  has built up over the years. The PRI scores in the library range from 100 to 43.3. Only two horses have received 100% and between them they won 14 Stakes races with 5G1 and massed more than $5.5m in earnings.

Does the PRI system work? The only evidence I can show is the results of my breeding program over the last 12 or so years.: My mares cost between $3,250 and $11,000:

Named Winners Wins Placed Stakes Av $
19 13 37 2 $888,817 46,779

Is the PRI analysis foolproof? Certainly not. It occasionally throws up results that aren’t easy to explain. However, it is still a very useful tool as the following will demonstrate. At the yearling sales a few years ago a friend of mine bred a horse by Encosta De Lago and it made $250,000. I had already given this horse a PRI of 47.3 and believed it would probably never win a race but I didn’t think it was my prerogative to tell either the breeder or the purchaser of my opinion. The horse is racing in Hong Kong and last week I looked for the performance of the now 6yo. I was wrong-it has won 2 minor  races but it took 38 starts to do it. A PRI analysis might have avoided the expenditure for such a limited return.