Inglis Classic Yearling Sales Catalogue 2020

Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2020

The yearling sales are underway and the next in line is the Inglis Classic for 2020. There are 808 Lots on offer from 103 sires. In a search for stayers, how many are there likely to be?  At the 2017 version of the sale a colt was offered with a reserve of $70k but was passed in at $45k. He went on to win the 2019 Melbourne Cup under the name of Vow and Declare. In the Catalogue are there any future stayers that could be Melbourne Cup winners ? There may well be but how do we search for stayers?

Vow and Declare

Where to look

Lets cut town our task  to a manageable number in the search for stayers. The first step is to look at the progeny of those sires who are most likely to sire a Classic/3200m race winner. What is our definition of a sire of stayers? I have set one  criteria. The sire has to have fathered at least two Stake Winners who have won over 2400m (12f) or further. Does this mean that sires who have not met this criterion will not sire a SW over 2400m or further?  Certainly not, but selecting progeny from a proven sire of stayers is more likely to bring success rather than employ a method of random selection.  Like the old saying-If you want to find gold, look somewhere where someone has already found some.

Stayers Benchmark 

A few words of explanations about sires of stayers before we delve into the Catalogue,. The current benchmark has to be Galileo (Sadler’s Wells – Urban Sea). He has sired an incredible 306 SW, 85xG1 of which 47 have won at 2400 or longer. An example of the success of not a true stayer is Bletchingly (Biscay – Coogee) who sired 18 SW, 9xG1 and two of his progeny (Kingston Town and Cossack Prince won at 2400m or beyond. However, the next horse in the list, Kenny’s Best Pal won at 2040m and the remainder were sprinters or milers at best. So some sires can prove you wrong but it is more productive to stick to those who have the data behind them.

Staying Sires at the Sales 

There are 10 sires represented at the Sale who meet the criterion of a sire of stayers in Yearling Sales Catalogue 2020.They are listed in the Table below along with their number of SW and the percentage of their SW that have won at 2400m or beyond.

It is self evident that both Tavistock ( Montjeu – Upstage) and Teofilo (Galileo – Speirbhean) are way ahead of the competition. Both have sired winners at 3200m and Teofilo has Cross Counter, a winner of a Melbourne Cup to his credit.  Somewhere in the table there is likely to be good hoses which can win our classic races. If you want a head start I would look at Lot 504 a filly by Teofilo from Sydney’s Destiny ( Dubai Destination – Sydney’s Quest ). She is a close relative to the filly Ezira (Teofilo – Eytarna (Dubai Destination – Ebaziya). Ezira was a very good racehorse that won the Blandford Stakes (G2) over 11f and the Kiternan Stakes also in Ireland over 12f at G3 level. Her full sister won a L race over 8f.

The search for stayers is not over yet. The next step is to look for compatibility of the female line. And of course to inspect the horse. However, remember the wise words of legendary trainer John Nerud“Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook conformation.” 


We offer a Thoroughbred Pedigree Analysis service for Broodmare Mating and Stallion Credentials as well as our  PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) analysis system.

PRI provides an excellent additional tool for relating pedigree to potential racing Ability.…………..

What makes a good race horse?


Galileo: Great Pedigree and Racing Ability

According to the experts there are three factors: Genetics, Environment, and Luck. About 35% of racing ability is inherited according to experts which may explain why horses who have impeccable pedigrees fail to fire on the track. However, unless a horse possess the right genes, the rest won’t matter.  Pedigree and Racing ability can be meshed. A PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is a new tool which can assist  a pedigree analysis. PRI  comes from linking pedigree and racing ability. Environmental influences include such factors such as nutrition, training methods and the age and sex of the horse.

The role of luck!

Statistically speaking, luck will even out over many runs and a considerable length of time. However, a thoroughbred’s career generally doesn’t stretch that far. About 25 is the  average number of runs in Australia for each horse. Not long enough to remove the bad luck factor. Bad barriers, wet or hard tracks, exceptional opposition, jockeys mistakes can all affect the outcome of the race. The bad luck factor covers all of these.

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Of the three factors, genetics is the most important. A poor quality horse is unlikely to win the Oakleigh Plate even if it draws barrier 1 and has Australia’s best jockey aboard. In human terms, a 5’8” man is unlikely to play in the NBA no matter what his ball skills or attitude to training are. The ability conferred by his genetics is not there for the job. Hence it is important to produce the best progeny available from the stallion/mare cross. To do this the breeder has to use all the information he or she can muster . Similarly a purchaser must also understand these matters to ensure their investment is based on the soundest analysis they can make.  

PRI: linking pedigree and racing ability 

The traditional way of assessing a horses chances on the racetrack requires a detailed pedigree analysis. The breeder/purchaser can make employ a number of various breeding theories to measure a horse’s likely ability on the track. We have developed a new addition to improve this analysis which is termed the Pedigree Racing Index (PRI). This measures the link between  pedigree and racing ability. Decisions about the breeding program for a mare will benefit from a PRI score. Similarly, additional information for an existing horse can influence a purchase decision. The PRI  score is  assessed against the horses in our data base. Similarly ,for virtual horses contemplated as part of a breeding program. Contact Dr Bob on  0417540698 for a chat.