Tag Archives: stallion fees

The Breeding Season 2021

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The new breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere is underway. Most breeders have probably made their selection, but for those who haven’t read on. There are many books and web sources providing information on breeding thoroughbreds. I won’t expand on this here, but during the last few years I have covered a few breeding issues in my blogs. These issues are rarely canvassed by others but should be part of the selection mix.

Are Stallion Fees a Reliable Predictor of a Foal’s Prize-winning Potential?

This matter is covered in March 2021. The answer given by the scientific work of A J Wilson and A Rambaut (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) 173-175) is a definite no. You should not evaluate a stallion on his racetrack performance or that of his relations, but on its pedigree. Sometimes they are both good, but sometimes one is way ahead of the other. The real issue is how a stallion and mare’s pedigrees will fit together. These comments do not necessarily apply to those breeders whose aim is to make money using the formula best to the best and hope for the best. Someone will always pay big money for the progeny resulting from implementation of this plan.

Beware The Danehill Cross

A quote by John Boyce says it all “Top-Class racehorses inbred to Danehill have been conspicuous by their absence”. My limited investigation set out in August 2020, confirms this view.  Mares carrying Danehill or his son’s lines are now the preeminent pedigree lines in Australian mares. Crossing them to any Danehill line stallions requires a great deal of thought, investigation, and care. These Danehill problems spill over to some extent to the batch of Danehill family line stallions. In my view there are better options in the next breeding season for Danehill mares. The compatibility problems will decrease as the Danehill genes move to the right of the pedigree and become less important.

Don’t believe that Brothers and Sisters are the same

Octagonal: Mighty Racehorse, good Sire; full Brother Columbia only a good Sire

Quite often you hear or read that such and such is a good choice because its brother/sister was such a good horse. If such a conclusion is reached because of a deep pedigree analysis it may have come validity. However, I have already explained why full brothers are different and as for brother/sister? One is XY and the XX. How different can you get?

Be Philosophical about Disappointment

Finally, even with all the best preparation in the world, you must be prepared for disappointment.  Recently, never has there been a more striking example as this. Mount Fuji (Snitzel – Ichihara) was a $2.8m yearling. After a racing record of 4 starts and results of 0-1-1 $20,850 the horse sold at auction for $75,000. Why the fall from grace?

On my system it had a superb pedigree with a PRI score of 99.3. This puts it in multiple G1 status in my Library. No doubt all the pre-sale veterinary checks gave the yearling a clean bill of health. Which makes us look for things that are not easy if not impossible to measure. Every mammal has a biological, genetically controlled, clock. That’s why we age. But throughout life it can also regulate physiological factors such as arthritis, immune response, breathing controls and general health well-being.  There are also psychological factors at work. Perhaps he didn’t really want to be a racehorse? A herd animal, perhaps he didn’t want to be an Alpha?

Mount Fuji might now find his mark at the $75k level of competition. For the new owners I hope he does. For the old owners my commiserations. I would probably given you the same advice you followed. Remember there will soon be the results of the new breeding season to examine

Are Stallion Fees a Predictor of a Foal’s prize-winning Potential?

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Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential. This conclusion was reached by A J Wilson and A Rambaut based on their work published in 2008 (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) :173-175. As few racehorse owners are avid readers of Bio Lett I thought it would be interesting to see if this work measures up against the current leading Australian stallions

Methodology

The Researchers used 554 active stallions and 4476 foals as their database. I have taken the current top ten sires in the Australian premiership list and calculated the racetrack performance of each of the top 10 horses of each sire. Their racing performance was rated as 4 points for a G1 win, 3 points for G2, 2 points for G3 and 1 point for a Listed race. I have called this Total Stakes Wins.

A Stallion service fee was due on each of these horses in the year before foaling. The total fees paid to each of the ten stallions is found by summing that paid for each of these best 10 progeny. The results are set down below in a simple XY scatter graph.

Results for Stallion Fees and Foals Potential

 

The results are given in the form of a scatter plot. A strong correlation would be at best a straight line fit. However, in this case the results are too independently variable to consider putting any straight line to link the points. Thus, I believe this data confirms the findings of A J Wilson and A Rambaut.  Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.

The graph has some degree of relevance. The stallion with the best rating has an Accumulation Service Fee of 198 and a Stake Performance rating of 93. But as time  passes and the data of most of the 10 best horses is now a few years old.  Stallion service fee have also changed. Another thing learned is that you don’t have to pay for expensive sires to get a good foal. Its all in the pedigrees. You still might have to pay big to get that..

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares? (Part 3)

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 The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse.

Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013.  Certainly, a great race mare.

Can Black Caviar break the curse?

Is there a factor which hinders quality race mares producing outstanding racing progeny? A partial answer is in the scientific paper by A J Wlson and A Rambaut, Biol Lett 2008 Apr23; 4(2):173-175.After examining the outcomes of 554 active stallions producing 4476 foals, they concluded:

“Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”

As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy.  However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.

Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)

Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzel filly is the pick of the bunch. It will be  interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviar fans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.