Category Archives: Sires

Sex Selection in the Sire

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It is not easy to track genes in racehorse families. Occasionally, statistics can indicate that there is sex selection in the sire. The catalogues have started to arrive so how do we use the information to buy a winner? Well, it is a useful document to find most the information in one place. However, a catalogue is unashamedly a selling document and to improve your chance of success you need to know more.  Sometimes the information that is not there is just as important. Both sides of the pedigree require more data. Here is a tip for the male side.

Performance of the Sire

This information can be found in the Australian Stud book or Stallions.com.au, or a number of similar data bases.  The data shows things like stallion fees, winners/runners, best performers, premiership tables, siblings etc. However, sometimes you have to dig deeper than this. To illustrate the sort of information which could be useful in your investigations let’s look at the stallion performance of Foxwedge (Fastnet Rock-Forest Native).

Foxwedge

Foxwedge was an excellent racehorse. In the G1 William Reid he pushed Hay List and Buffering into second and third places.  As a Sire he has a winners/runners ratio of 43.7% which puts him close to horses like So You Think (44.4%) and Nicconi (41.7%). However, what makes his performance worth another look is the fact that his progeny has won three of the highest quality G1 races. Not all G1 races are the same no matter what some industry people say. The table below lists some of the important winners of these races that have been won by his daughters.

All three of Foxwedge’ s G1 winners are fillies. Further investigation shows that of his 18SW, 15 are fillies and 3 are colts. Is there some sort of sex bias operating here? Is it a case of sex selection in the sire? Well, that may be true to a small extent as In the 2013-2015 crops there are 178 fillies and 142 colts.  However, this difference would not explain the SW disparity. It could be chance or is there is a sex-linked factor expressed in the X chromosome of Foxwedge that is related to racing performance. This gene is reinforced by the X chromosome in some of his mares. How do you use this information? If you are interested in Foxwedge progeny, give preference to the fillies. At a service fee of only $11,000 they are definitely worth a look.

Comparing Sire Lines at the Highest Level

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Comparing Sire Lines at the Highest Level

There is interest in comparing sire lines at the highest level in racing jurisdictions around the world. I have just completed an exercise for an American client in evaluating the sire lines in last week’s Kentucky Derby. Some of the world’s current leading sires are surprisingly absent.. To look at the issue further I decided to compare the top sires in America with those in Australia. I have not used the usual tools (average, earnings, winners per runner, stake earnings etc).

Keeping it very simple I have measured how many times a sire occurs in the pedigree. as the basis for this comparison. The data I have used comes from  two important races for 3yo as they are the top of the crop at the time they raced. The results will perhaps show what was important to breeders four years ago and perhaps also today. I have used the standard 5 generation pedigree (30 horses,15 on Sires side, 15 on the Dam’s side). The examination was not to find all the sire/broodmare lines, but look at which horses are contributing most to the pedigrees of the combined field. One can of course extrapolate from there.

Comparison of Sires in Kentucky Derby 2020 and Caulfield Guineas 2019.

I have chosen to compare the current sires whose progeny make up the fields in these two races. Both races are G1 races for horses of three years, of similar distance, worth approximately the same stake money. Exceptional winners of both races usually go on to be successful sires. They are also Races that owners would love to win.

Seattle Slew: a true champion in every way

The Kentucky Derby commenced in 1875.  In the last 50 years or so Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Sunday Silence (1989) and Unbridled (1990) have gone onto great things.

A P Indy: a son of Seattle Slew with 63 active sons at stud

The Caulfield Guineas commenced in 1881. It has also unearthed a string of talent. Luskin Star (1977), Redoute’s Choice (1999) Lohnro (2001), and Starspangledbanner (2009).

To have a position on the list a Sire has to be mentioned at least three times. The results are tabulated below:

What is interesting in the data?

Firstly, the stalwarts Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer maintain their powerful influence in both Countries.

  • The low showing of Danzig in America compared with Australia is surprising. No Danehill blood in the Derby begs many questions. One wouldn’t think quality would be one of those. Danehill was the broodmare sire of Frankel, considered by some (not by me) to be the world’s best horse ever. Danehill currently rates 83rd in Northern Hemisphere’s broodmare sire list. Perhaps there is something in that.
  • The Champions, Seattle Slew and A P Indy are well represented in the Derby but are noted to be largely absent in the Guineas.
  • The same could be said for Storm Bird and his son Storm Cat. The Storm Cat line is going well in America. Into Mischief, a great grandson of Storm Cat was America’s most sought-after sire in 2020. Storm Cat  has 92 active sons at stud.

Genetic Diversity

Horses in today’s thoroughbred population can trace their paternal linage to just three stallions. Similarly, more than 70% of thoroughbreds can trace their maternal linage to just 10 mares. Thus, there is little genetic diversity. Incorporation of the genes from some of the outstanding sires could provide that small change which separate success from failure in the breeding business.

The Autumn Sun: Another Step Towards Greatness

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Pedigree and Racing Ability

Pedigree and racing ability can be linked. On the racing aspect it wasn’t easy but The Autumn Sun proved what a champion he may be by his win in the G2 Hobartville Stakes. He has a PRI score of 99.8% with only two horses above him on my list. The Hobartville result was pretty much in line with PRI expectations but the second horse Vegadaze went better than predicted. The Autumn Sun win was even more meritorious when you consider that his best racing distance according to his pedigree is 2000-2500m.

Results for Hobartville Stakes G2 2019

Name Pedigree PRI Placing
The Autumn Sun Redoute’s Choice-Azmiyna 99.6 1
Vegadaze Lope de Vega-Rainy Daze 69.8 2
Bondi Snitzel-Bondi Blonde 93.8 3
Purple Sector Pins-Eden Valley 84.2 4
Rancho Notorious Hight Chaparral-Zedity 64.8 5
Paquirri I Am Invincible -Miss Solis 71.8 6

What a Pedigree

And what a pedigree he has! Virtually all the superior bloodlines for sires are present. Danehill and Galileo, back through  Roberto, Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector, and Bletchingly to Pharos, Ribot, Mill Reef, Nashua, Native Dancer and Nearco to Pharos, Hyperion, Polynesian, Mahmoud on the sires side.  The six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.8% showing a high level of SW in the female line; and two sensational female ancestors, Best in Show and Urban Sea are in his pedigree.  What more do you need!

Of course its not necessarily who the ancestors are but how the fit together in a pedigree. However, with a racing record of 7 starts for 3xG1, 1xG2 ,a G2 third and 2 other wins it looks as if the gene shuffle has come out very well. Great horses with a pedigree to match their racing ability aren’t too common. So will he make it as a sire? In my view he will be up there with the modern greats in this part of the world like Star Kingdom, Sir Tristram, Danehill and his own sire Redoute’s Choice. The only problem that he could confront is the same one that Secretariat had – too good for the available mares around.You can’t get better than perfection.

Great Uncle has done Great Things

A positive pointer on how good a sire The Autumn Sun might be is that his grandmother is the dam of Azamour (Night Shift-Asmara) who was a serious racehorse (4xG1, 1XG3). He once rated the third best horse in the world.and stood in Ireland with a brief visit to NZ. He has sired 39 SW to date. His best horse is probably Covert Love ( winner of G1 Irish Oaks, and G1 Prix de L’ Opera Casino in France).Azamour has already had G1 success in Australia when Best of Days won the Cantala Stakes at Flemington last year.

Is Best to the Best the Best way to find or breed the Best Racehorse?

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Calogues are now out

There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.

Importance of Genetics

Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.).  All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.

The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the  athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.

An Example of Breeding Quality Mares  to the Best that worked

Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners

Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014

The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares.   Tthe breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career

What is a PRI?

The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money.  The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, Mr Prospector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram. 

A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehill son (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).

So my advice to  people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?

Good luck, we all need plenty of that.