Category Archives: Sires

Are Stallion Fees a Predictor of a Foal’s prize-winning Potential?

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Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential. This conclusion was reached by A J Wilson and A Rambaut based on their work published in 2008 (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) :173-175. As few racehorse owners are avid readers of Bio Lett I thought it would be interesting to see if this work measures up against the current leading Australian stallions

Methodology

The Researchers used 554 active stallions and 4476 foals as their database. I have taken the current top ten sires in the Australian premiership list and calculated the racetrack performance of each of the top 10 horses of each sire. Their racing performance was rated as 4 points for a G1 win, 3 points for G2, 2 points for G3 and 1 point for a Listed race. I have called this Total Stakes Wins.

A Stallion service fee was due on each of these horses in the year before foaling. The total fees paid to each of the ten stallions is found by summing that paid for each of these best 10 progeny. The results are set down below in a simple XY scatter graph.

Results for Stallion Fees and Foals Potential

 

The results are given in the form of a scatter plot. A strong correlation would be at best a straight line fit. However, in this case the results are too independently variable to consider putting any straight line to link the points. Thus, I believe this data confirms the findings of A J Wilson and A Rambaut.  Stallion fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.

The graph has some degree of relevance. The stallion with the best rating has an Accumulation Service Fee of 198 and a Stake Performance rating of 93. But as time  passes and the data of most of the 10 best horses is now a few years old.  Stallion service fee have also changed. Another thing learned is that you don’t have to pay for expensive sires to get a good foal. Its all in the pedigrees. You still might have to pay big to get that..

Services

Introduction

Whatever way you look at it owning and racing a horse is going to cost you money. There is certainly a payback in terms of enjoyment but this is only significant if it wins or at least runs well. Don’t forget the size of your capital investment is a once off thing. On-going training and maintenance costs probably average over $40,000/year and even if shared are a considerable cost. Before you make a decision for few hundred dollars we can supply services to support your intentions..

Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)

PRI: Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees is a method we have developed to link a horse’s pedigree with its likely racing performance. PRI is a quantitative measurement with the result being expressed as percentage between 0 and 100. This number is compared with our data base of over 300 horses.

PRI is useful in horses in ready to race sales and calculating the likely racing ability of yearlings and progeny from a breeding outcome.

Broodmares and Progeny

For horse breeders PRI is useful tool for choosing a suitable stallion for a mare as it provides a quantitative comparison between options. We can provide a quantitative assessment of any mare using the broodmare indexing system we have built up. Any report can include a six generation female index (6GFI), traditional breeding options such as line-breeding, dosage, breeding history etc.

What are the Costs?

How much you want to spend on the investigation depends on your level of investment. For example, if you are buying do want to want to know the chances of a horse being a winner? Then the cost will be about $300. Do you want to rank the best of five you are considering buying at a sale? It will cost about $1,000. Do you want to know which stallion to put a mare to? Then the first question is how much do you want to pay for a service fee and how far do you want to ship the mare. The cost will be about $500 for one stallion and $1,000 for three possibilities. A report can be tailor made to your requirements.

All our investigations are confidential and independent – we have no allegiance to any third party.

 

If you are interested in the services that we offer you can  phone Dr Bob on 0417540698.or contact us through either our Contacts Page or E-mail our abjjem@bigpond.com.

 

 

Can a Cheap Horse be a Stakes Winner?

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Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.

The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.

Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)

Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)

This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score.    She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1

Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)

He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score.  His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.

Broodmare Sires

Pentire is the broodmare sire of Opalescence. His SW/R is 4.6% which is low but not hopeless compared with other broodmare sires in NZ, Northern Hemisphere, and Australia. (See Table 2). The same applies to  Danzero, the broodmare sire of Paniagua.

Other Pedigree Examination Tools

Oasis Dream

Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert.  Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross.  Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses.  But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.

Conclusions

Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”

Sex Selection in the Sire

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It is not easy to track genes in racehorse families. Occasionally, statistics can indicate that there is sex selection in the sire. The catalogues have started to arrive so how do we use the information to buy a winner? Well, it is a useful document to find most the information in one place. However, a catalogue is unashamedly a selling document and to improve your chance of success you need to know more.  Sometimes the information that is not there is just as important. Both sides of the pedigree require more data. Here is a tip for the male side.

Performance of the Sire

This information can be found in the Australian Stud book or Stallions.com.au, or a number of similar data bases.  The data shows things like stallion fees, winners/runners, best performers, premiership tables, siblings etc. However, sometimes you have to dig deeper than this. To illustrate the sort of information which could be useful in your investigations let’s look at the stallion performance of Foxwedge (Fastnet Rock-Forest Native).

Foxwedge

Foxwedge was an excellent racehorse. In the G1 William Reid he pushed Hay List and Buffering into second and third places.  As a Sire he has a winners/runners ratio of 43.7% which puts him close to horses like So You Think (44.4%) and Nicconi (41.7%). However, what makes his performance worth another look is the fact that his progeny has won three of the highest quality G1 races. Not all G1 races are the same no matter what some industry people say. The table below lists some of the important winners of these races that have been won by his daughters.

All three of Foxwedge’ s G1 winners are fillies. Further investigation shows that of his 18SW, 15 are fillies and 3 are colts. Is there some sort of sex bias operating here? Is it a case of sex selection in the sire? Well, that may be true to a small extent as In the 2013-2015 crops there are 178 fillies and 142 colts.  However, this difference would not explain the SW disparity. It could be chance or is there is a sex-linked factor expressed in the X chromosome of Foxwedge that is related to racing performance. This gene is reinforced by the X chromosome in some of his mares. How do you use this information? If you are interested in Foxwedge progeny, give preference to the fillies. At a service fee of only $11,000 they are definitely worth a look.

Comparing Sire Lines at the Highest Level

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Comparing Sire Lines at the Highest Level

There is interest in comparing sire lines at the highest level in racing jurisdictions around the world. I have just completed an exercise for an American client in evaluating the sire lines in last week’s Kentucky Derby. Some of the world’s current leading sires are surprisingly absent.. To look at the issue further I decided to compare the top sires in America with those in Australia. I have not used the usual tools (average, earnings, winners per runner, stake earnings etc).

Keeping it very simple I have measured how many times a sire occurs in the pedigree. as the basis for this comparison. The data I have used comes from  two important races for 3yo as they are the top of the crop at the time they raced. The results will perhaps show what was important to breeders four years ago and perhaps also today. I have used the standard 5 generation pedigree (30 horses,15 on Sires side, 15 on the Dam’s side). The examination was not to find all the sire/broodmare lines, but look at which horses are contributing most to the pedigrees of the combined field. One can of course extrapolate from there.

Comparison of Sires in Kentucky Derby 2020 and Caulfield Guineas 2019.

I have chosen to compare the current sires whose progeny make up the fields in these two races. Both races are G1 races for horses of three years, of similar distance, worth approximately the same stake money. Exceptional winners of both races usually go on to be successful sires. They are also Races that owners would love to win.

Seattle Slew: a true champion in every way

The Kentucky Derby commenced in 1875.  In the last 50 years or so Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Sunday Silence (1989) and Unbridled (1990) have gone onto great things.

A P Indy: a son of Seattle Slew with 63 active sons at stud

The Caulfield Guineas commenced in 1881. It has also unearthed a string of talent. Luskin Star (1977), Redoute’s Choice (1999) Lohnro (2001), and Starspangledbanner (2009).

To have a position on the list a Sire has to be mentioned at least three times. The results are tabulated below:

What is interesting in the data?

Firstly, the stalwarts Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer maintain their powerful influence in both Countries.

  • The low showing of Danzig in America compared with Australia is surprising. No Danehill blood in the Derby begs many questions. One wouldn’t think quality would be one of those. Danehill was the broodmare sire of Frankel, considered by some (not by me) to be the world’s best horse ever. Danehill currently rates 83rd in Northern Hemisphere’s broodmare sire list. Perhaps there is something in that.
  • The Champions, Seattle Slew and A P Indy are well represented in the Derby but are noted to be largely absent in the Guineas.
  • The same could be said for Storm Bird and his son Storm Cat. The Storm Cat line is going well in America. Into Mischief, a great grandson of Storm Cat was America’s most sought-after sire in 2020. Storm Cat  has 92 active sons at stud.

Genetic Diversity

Horses in today’s thoroughbred population can trace their paternal linage to just three stallions. Similarly, more than 70% of thoroughbreds can trace their maternal linage to just 10 mares. Thus, there is little genetic diversity. Incorporation of the genes from some of the outstanding sires could provide that small change which separate success from failure in the breeding business.

The Autumn Sun: Another Step Towards Greatness

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Pedigree and Racing Ability

Pedigree and racing ability can be linked. On the racing aspect it wasn’t easy but The Autumn Sun proved what a champion he may be by his win in the G2 Hobartville Stakes. He has a PRI score of 99.8% with only two horses above him on my list. The Hobartville result was pretty much in line with PRI expectations but the second horse Vegadaze went better than predicted. The Autumn Sun win was even more meritorious when you consider that his best racing distance according to his pedigree is 2000-2500m.

Results for Hobartville Stakes G2 2019

Name Pedigree PRI Placing
The Autumn Sun Redoute’s Choice-Azmiyna 99.6 1
Vegadaze Lope de Vega-Rainy Daze 69.8 2
Bondi Snitzel-Bondi Blonde 93.8 3
Purple Sector Pins-Eden Valley 84.2 4
Rancho Notorious Hight Chaparral-Zedity 64.8 5
Paquirri I Am Invincible -Miss Solis 71.8 6

What a Pedigree

And what a pedigree he has! Virtually all the superior bloodlines for sires are present. Danehill and Galileo, back through  Roberto, Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector, and Bletchingly to Pharos, Ribot, Mill Reef, Nashua, Native Dancer and Nearco to Pharos, Hyperion, Polynesian, Mahmoud on the sires side.  The six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.8% showing a high level of SW in the female line; and two sensational female ancestors, Best in Show and Urban Sea are in his pedigree.  What more do you need!

Of course its not necessarily who the ancestors are but how the fit together in a pedigree. However, with a racing record of 7 starts for 3xG1, 1xG2 ,a G2 third and 2 other wins it looks as if the gene shuffle has come out very well. Great horses with a pedigree to match their racing ability aren’t too common. So will he make it as a sire? In my view he will be up there with the modern greats in this part of the world like Star Kingdom, Sir Tristram, Danehill and his own sire Redoute’s Choice. The only problem that he could confront is the same one that Secretariat had – too good for the available mares around.You can’t get better than perfection.

Great Uncle has done Great Things

A positive pointer on how good a sire The Autumn Sun might be is that his grandmother is the dam of Azamour (Night Shift-Asmara) who was a serious racehorse (4xG1, 1XG3). He once rated the third best horse in the world.and stood in Ireland with a brief visit to NZ. He has sired 39 SW to date. His best horse is probably Covert Love ( winner of G1 Irish Oaks, and G1 Prix de L’ Opera Casino in France).Azamour has already had G1 success in Australia when Best of Days won the Cantala Stakes at Flemington last year.

Is Best to the Best the Best way to find or breed the Best Racehorse?

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Calogues are now out

There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.

Importance of Genetics

Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.).  All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.

The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the  athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.

An Example of Breeding Quality Mares  to the Best that worked

Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners

Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014

The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares.   Tthe breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career

What is a PRI?

The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money.  The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, Mr Prospector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram. 

A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehill son (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).

So my advice to  people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?

Good luck, we all need plenty of that.