Finding a Golden Slipper winner

The 2021 event may be over but how do we go about finding a Golden Slipper Winner? I am a firm believer that the way to the future is pointed by examining the past. The Golden Slipper was first run in 1957 and was won by a very good horse in Todman. Many of the earlier winners were also very good horses/champions who went forward to a successful racing career.  These horses could obviously sprint but their ability allowed them to extend their winning distances. Vain (14 Starts) won 12G1 including the Champagne Stakes (1600m) by 12 lengths. Sky High (55 Starts) won the VRC

There was a Sky High once. When comes such another?

Derby and AJC Epsom Handicap among his 26 rated G1 wins. Luskin Star (17 Starts) won the AJC Triple Crown and the Caulfield Guineas had 13 victories and 3 seconds. His only unplaced run was in the 1978 Cox Plate in which he was favourite to Family of Man. But times are changing. The winners of the Slipper over the last 10 Years have been specialist sprinters with short racing careers with a single exception. If you want to find a Golden Slipper winner it helps to look in the right direction.

Analysis of the field of fifteen runners in the 2011 Slipper

Do you need to buy an expensive yearling?

To answer that question, we need to go back to the year of the yearling sales of 2020. Seventeen yearlings sold at $1m or more at Australia’s two principal Australian Sales. Not one made the 2021 Slipper field. In fact, as of now, 14 have not yet started their racing careers and the three that have run have amassed $71,000 of stake money. This suggests they could not win the Slipper even if they had started. There is nothing wrong with these horses, their time may come. But not in the 2021 Slipper. Buying expensive horses may not be the answer. There is hope for those on a more modest budget

What type of Sire to look for?

Of the fifteen runners, five were by sires in the top 10 of the current general premiership lists. Eight were in the top ten of the 2yo sires with Not a Single Doubt the only sire to appear in both lists.  The big four, I am Invincible, Snitzel, Written Tycoon and Zoustar, are not in the top ten of the current year’s 2yo sires list. We are looking for a yearling that will be a successful early runner so pay more attention to the 2yo sires list. If you are looking for a Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate, or Derby winner then these comments are not relevant to you.

What does the pedigree of Stay Inside (Extreme Choice – Nothin’ Leica Storm) tell us?

There isn’t much space to go into detail here but here are a few points

  • Extreme Choice has excellent credentials for a sire of fast horses. In 8 Starts 2 G1wins: Blue Diamond Stakes and Moir Stakes (1000m) and third in an Oakleigh Plate. Wonderful credentials for a sire of sprinters.
  • Nothin’ Leica was paced seven times in 13 starts and won over 1600m, She is backed by an array of strong staying blood: Cerreto G1 Italian Derby, Gay Mecene G1 winner in France over 2400m The rest of the male lines are virtually Household names.

Certainly, a great cross of speed over stamina.

Staying Inside was purchased for $200,000 and next year there will be a winner of the 2022 Golden Slipper. Remember at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sales of 1978 a horse was passed in at $6,500 against a reserve of $8,000. The horse? Luskin Star. Hope for Everyone!