Category Archives: Broodmares

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2021 (Part 1)

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MM Sale Part 1 Weanlings

The MM Weanling and Broodmare Sale is about to get underway. In the MM Weanling Sale section there are plenty of lots on offer to meet the need and aspirations of the buyer. The  budget can also be met. Weanling sales have the advantage that horses are usually less expensive than those at the yearling sales.  The advantage of buying a yearling is that it will look more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. A weanling has more growing to do. It will cost you money while it develops. Having looked at a number of weanling on offer, we have selected two fillies in the MM Weanling Sale that we consider will make successful racehorses.

Lot 78 b f Dubwai – Entisaar

Dubawi was excellent on the track with three wins at G1 level in France and Ireland (7f-1600m). He has 271 SW with a ratio 8.17% SW/R. Gender split is roughly equal. His best female horse was Bonneval (Dubawi – Imposingly, 3xG1, 2xG2, 1xG3).She was the winner of both the NZ and AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes. Dubawi’s progeny have won from 1000m to beyond 2500m with nine out his 10 best horses being miler/stayers.

Dubawi rated 18th in World list of international sires

The Mare

Entisaar (More than Ready – Purrpurriena ) was a G1 winner in South Africa. Her female family has a 6GFI of 4.41% which is reasonable. There is plenty of speed in the female line. Pre Catelan (by Lunchtime) was an exceptionally fast 2yo  that won both the Breeders Plate (L) and Silver Slipper (G2).Another family member Tangiers, won three G3 races (1200-1400m).

The Cross

The cross Dubawi – More than Ready has already produced a G3 SW.  Run Naan won the Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) in 2017. Dosage shows  a middle distance performer but with enough speed to be an early runner. The PRI score of 92.5 indicates the filly could be something special.

Lot 242 b f Exceed and Excel – Witches

The Sire

Exceed and Excel is currently 8th on the Australian Sires premiership table and 20th in the International listing .His line has 215 SW with SW/R at 4.25%.His best filly is Guelph (Exceed and Excel – Camarilla, 4xG1,1xG2, 1xG3).His top ten horses can be split equally into sprinters and Miler/Stayers. Certainly a sire of world status.

The Mare

Lohnro: How successful a broodmare sire will he be?

Witches (Lonhro – Ouija) had a very useful racing career with three wins. Her female line has a very high 6GFI value of 10.9% and Witches is right in the thick of things. There are  a few interesting SW in her female line Northern Drake (Underwood Stakes G1) is one of them

The Cross. 

The cross Exceed and Excel – Lonhro has proved very successful with a ratio SW/R of 7.58% .There are 5 SW produced by this cross;

  • La Tene 2 x G2 including VRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
  • Manicure, Resin, Tin Hat and Munhaaj all G3 winners (1200-1600m)

The pedigree of this filly also has a 3m (Zabeel -Eight Carat) x 5f (Sticks and Stones –Eight Carat ) which could be a useful pedigree reinforcement.

The PRI score for this filly is an exceptionally high.97.1 The MM Weanling Sale is the place to find her.

 

 

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2021

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The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale almost concludes the run of the large yearling sales in Australia for this year. Some yearlings who failed to meet the entrance criteria for the major sales are offered. There are also some which did meet the criteria but just weren’t ready for sale earlier in the year.  If you are looking to buy a horse that can win a Cox Plate then be a starter in the Arc D’Triomphe all for $40,000, this isn’t the place to look. However, if your goal is to buy a horse that can compete in your local Country Cups, you are looking in the right place.

We narrowed the 339 Lots on offer down to 15 and have chosen 2 which meet our selection rules. The number one rule is to uncover enough information to improve the chances of selecting a good individual on pedigree.

Lot 44 b f Starcraft – Sleek Anitra

The Sire

Starcraft has produced 40 SW:22 male and 18 females. He is from the Nureyev dynasty (3077 SW) which has produced some imposing horses. Lonhro, Octagonal, Miseque (dual Breeders Cup mile winner), Verry Elleegant, Almond Eye, and Makybe Diva-before we get to the lesser lights. Starcraft was an excellent racehorse.

  Starcraft

There aren’t too many sires standing in Australia that have won three G1 of the ilk of AJC Derby, French Prix du Moulin de Longchamps, and the English Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. On the face of it he appears to be underutilised. Most of his best horses are winners in the range 1200-1600m

The Mare

You can’t improve much on two wins from two starts both as a 2yo. Sleek Anitra’s second win was at Flemington over 1400m. At first glance her performance at stud isn’t that impressive: seven foals. four to race, and only one winner. However, one can find excuses.

Served three times to Anacheeva that is not a good match. Anacheeva has proved to be anything but that at stud. He has one SW out of 111 starters (0.90%). The cross to Fastnet Rock has not produced any SW in 5 attempts and the cross Anabaa x Fastnet Rock no SW in 25 attempts. Her 6GFI of 9.1% shows she should be capable of producing better.

The Cross

The cross Starcraft x Fastnet Rock has already produced two SW from 29 runners (6.9%). Our Crown Mistress (Starcraft – Barangaroo) has won two listed races (1400/1300m). Pearl Star (Starcraft – Pearl of the Sea) won a listed race over 1100m as a 2yo. She has since had a foal (Cumberbatch) that has won at both Flemington and Sandown. This is another indication that the female line has strength. The cross Starcraft – Sleek Anitra has a PRI score of 82.5 which puts her in the winners’ category.

Lot 286 b f Magnus – Light Rose

The Sire

Magnus has produced 19 SW:12 male and 7 females.  Being part of the Danehill line through his sire Flying Spur, has probably limited his opportunities with so much Danehill blood in the local broodmare population. Magnus has a SW/R ratio of 3.47%. Most of his runners are sprinters.

The Mare

The mare Light Rose never started, but the commencement of her stud duties has been promising. She has produced Magnesium Rose a full sister to Lot 286. Magnesium Rose has won three times, including a win over triple SW mare Teleplay and continues to race. Her 6GFI is 4.37% and her female line includes the 6 times G1 winner Durbridge. His victories include the AJC Derby and the Australian Cup.

The Cross

The cross Magnus – Royal Academy has already produced a L SW winner Front Page (Magnus – Stacey Lee) in the A R Creswick Stakes 1208m. Lot 286 has a PRI value 0f 88.8; definitely in winners’ territory.

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has plenty of interesting horses. Sorting them out is the task.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021

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For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.

People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.

Things to look for in a broodmare

Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is

  • A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
  • If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.

I also like to look at the 6GFI (Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..

Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.

Lot 404 Friendly Donna (Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas

Friendly Donna had a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.

All Too Hard is currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceed and Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too Hard – Up and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.

Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging, Mannerism and Duporth to name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.

So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire

So You Think has now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405.  A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.

Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)

 

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.

I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta De Lago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.

If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021

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The quality of the yearlings in this year’s MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021 is not of the same standard as their first sale of the year. Of the 419 lots on offer, only seven horses are from sires present in the top ten of sires’ premiership list. In addition, the quality of broodmares is down to an average index of around 300 compared with 700 in the yearling sales held to date. Nevertheless, there are winners to be had -finding them is more difficult. Of the horses I have examined, one is of interest. Unfortunately the data is not available around him that I would like. 

The three sires of interest in the top ten are All too Hard (Lots 9,79,262,369,404), Pierro (Lot 28) and Zoustar (Lot 40). Of these I believe the latter is of most interest.

Lot 40 (Zoustar – Beyonce’s Star)

The analysis of the pedigree of this horse demonstrates the need to rely on secondary data if primary data is not available. Primary data is that produced by looking how well the sire and dam male line cross.  The PRI score for the above match is a low 58.5. This usually means a country class horse. However, in the case of Lot 40, 37.5% of the data is missing. Orientate, Mt Livermore and Tell have few descendants in Australia contributing to the pedigree. The low PRI score can be explained by the absence of data. But for more insight examination of the secondary data is necessary.

Fappiano: Is he the key to success?

  • The mare Beyonce’s Star is a SW and is the dam of a SW
  • Zoustar has already produced at least 17SW. I don’t know if his heroics of last Saturday have hit the record books yet. Certainly, a Newmarket Handicap quinella is pretty rare)
  • Zoustar has produced a stake winner/runners (S/R) ratio of 5.54% which compares favorably with a Redoute’s Choice benchmark of 4.61%
  • Orientate in the broodmare sire line has produced 25SW (16 male, 9 female) and has an S/R of 5.5%
  • The Orientate broodmare sire line crosses well to Fappiano in the male sire line. 36% of his 25 winners are crossed to Fappiano.

The data above and the fact that Zoustar is going from strength to strength suggests strongly that this colt is worth a look. He could well be the best buy in the MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021.

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

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MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

The MM Yearling Sales Catalogue lists 1273 yearlings. It It will soon be underway with a plethora of young unproven sires, some sires on their way up and some on their way down. I won’t attempt to review them all, even if I had the space. I have carried out a pedigree analysis of a number of interesting horses and set down four that I believe will be superior race horses.

Lot 245 (b f Fastnet Rock-Dreams and Wishes)

Fastnet Rock 19th in World Sires 

Fastnet Rock is rated 19 in the world sires’ premiership, and Galileo is 12 in broodmare sires (by earnings). The combination has produced international winners in America, Europe and Australasia. The score is 20 SW with 8xG1 (5f ,3c) and their offspring have won the Epsom, AJC and Victorian Oaks.  There is no reason to suppose that this filly could not add to the list. The PRI analysis shows an excellent meshing of sires and certainly points to a SW. Her female line goes right back to Rainbird the winner of the 1945 Melbourne Cup

Lot 461 (b c Lord Kanaloa – Laguna Azzurra)

Lord Kanaloa breaks track record at Nakayama

Whenever you see a horse sired by the world’s number 2 sire its useful to take notice. This horse is a three-quarter brother to Tagaloa who won the G1 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes. Unfortunately, he broke down in the spring before he could really show what he was capable of. Lord Kanaloa was a 6xG1 winner himself and was a sprinter-miler. However, his progeny has excelled over more distance. Almond Eye, his best horse, has 8xG1 and the tag of world champion 3yo filly to her credit in addition to two Japan Cups (2400m).

Lot 518 (b f No Nay Never-Ma Mara)

No Nay Never wins G1 in France

Twelve months ago, I expected No Nay Never to do big things. Well, he has been a little slow getting off the mark in Australia although he has increased his SW from 18 to 25 internationally. He has SW winners in USA, UK, Ireland, France, Italy and NZ. These horses have won in the range 1000 -1600m. So, if you are looking for a sprinter this could be your go. No Nay Never’s best horse is Ten Sovereigns who added the July Cup (probably Europe’s most prestigious sprint race) to his SW collection last year. His dam, Seeking Solace, is by Exceed and Excel which makes Lot 518 a three-quarter sister to Ten Sovereigns. With a PRI rating of 95.8%, he is well into Black type territory

Lot 911 (ch c Written Tycoon – Tuscan Sling)

      Written Tycoon-11 G1 winners

Written Tycoon has gone from almost obscurity to a super sire in a few years. His progeny like winning the big races and there have been 11 individual G1 SW. Essentially a sire of sprinters, none of his G1 winners has won beyond 1600m. Tusan Sling is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, ranked number 20 in the list of the world’s leading broodmare sires. His female progeny are very versatile and love throwing classic winners. Epsom Oaks, English Derby, Irish Derby, and Hong Kong Derby -the list goes on. Dosage suggests Lot 911 to be a fast sprinter.

However, I believe that although he may be able to win such races as a young horse, his career could extend into the classic distances, that is until he runs out of puff. The cross of Written Tycoon with Danehill Dancer mares has produced three SW.  Music Magnate won the G1 Doomben 10,000, Written Beauty won the G3 Red Roses Stakes and It is Written won three listed races all over 1200m. PRI of 92.1% suggest the mating is genetically sound

There are plenty of excellent yearlings In the MM Sales Catalogue 2021. The task is finding the right ones at the right price.

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares? (Part 4)

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Zenyatta  a True Champion Mare. 

Do champion race mares make champion broodmares? Those who have been following my investigations might consider it is an Australian/NZ issue. I can assure you that it is not. The “‘Curse” is operating elsewhere. Zenyatta is an American champion mare. She was victorious in 19 out of 20 starts. Her only loss was a second in her final race when trying for her second Breeders Cup Classic. She was already the only mare to win the Classic, but the second attempt was just a bit too far. Dropping out last, as was her usual way of racing, she flew home but failed by a neck After winning $7.304m  it is time for a new career.

The Breeding Performance of Zenyatta

Zenyatta has been bred to most of the major American sire lines. The results to date have not been encouraging

I cannot fault the breeding plans undertaken for Zenyatta. The PRI scores indicate that the progeny should be competitive racing at stakes level. The breeders have given every chance to this champion race mare to become a champion broodmare. The only problem I see is that crosses to Forli on the dam’s side do not work well, and this must be causing problems. It is surprising that all of the major sire lines chosen seem to be affected. Certainly, the five best horses carrying Forli genes on their dam’s side had no problem “overcoming” it. Bad luck seems to have got in the way of good plans.

                                 Zenyatta with Candy Ride filly

 

 

 I suggest the way forward would be to find a stallion which crosses well with Forli and check that he is still compatible with the rest of the female pedigree. This stallion may not be fashionable but neither was Nathaniel before he met up with Concentric and produced Enable. Should she win her third Arc, Nathaniel, Enable and John Gosden will be even more famous.

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares? (Part 3)

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 The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse.

Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013.  Certainly, a great race mare.

Can Black Caviar break the curse?

Is there a factor which hinders quality race mares producing outstanding racing progeny? A partial answer is in the scientific paper by A J Wlson and A Rambaut, Biol Lett 2008 Apr23; 4(2):173-175.After examining the outcomes of 554 active stallions producing 4476 foals, they concluded:

“Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”

As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy.  However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.

Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)

Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzel filly is the pick of the bunch. It will be  interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviar fans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.

Is Best to the Best the Best way to find or breed the Best Racehorse?

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Breeding From Quality Mares

There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.

Importance of Genetics

Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.).  All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.

The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the  athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.

An Example of Breeding Quality Mares  to the Best that worked

Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners

Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014

The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares.   The breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career

What is a PRI?

The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money.  The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, Mr Prospector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram.

A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehill son (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).

So my advice to  people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?

Good luck, we all need plenty of that.

 

Will Winx be a better Broodmare than other Champion Mares?

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It has been reported that super mare Winx (Street Cry-Vegas Showgirl) is going to be serviced by the Danzig line stallion I am Invincible. Is this another example of “Best to the Best”? Is there something in the combined pedigree that will provide confidence that the mating will produce a significant racehorse? What does a PRI about the projected racing ability of Winx progeny tell us?

Sire’s Performance

As sires go, I Am Invincible was a good racehorse but nothing special. Thirteen starts for 5 wins, 2 two placings and $270k in stakes earned.  His sire, Invincible Spirit, was a better racehorse winning a G1 and 2xG3. He stood in Australia for 4 seasons, returned to Ireland and now commands 60,000 euros. The female line of I Am invincible is not strong with a 6GFI of 4.1%. However, his grand dam sits right in middle of a thick vein of Pedrille bloodlines.The fact that s stallion’s fees are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize winning potential has been established for some time.

Mare’s Performance

Winx’s sire Street Cry was an excellent racehorse. He won the Dubai World Cup and the G1 Stephen Foster Handicap in America. His impressive deeds continued as a sire. His sire line has produced 241 SW, with 46xG1 individual winners.   As a broodmare sire he has produced 52 SW.  The Winx female line is weak with a 6GFI of 2.82% and she is the only G1 winner in 6 generations.

Putting the two together, what do we get?

New foals are about to arrive

The overall picture is of a complete outcross. There is plenty of line breeding in the back end but this is beyond the fifth generation and unlikely to have much impact in a sixth generation progeny. In the absence of any information to apply some of the favoured techniques in Pedigree Analysis, we can look at the statistics of breeding of Street Cry broodmares. The following comments can be made:

  • Street Cry broodmares have not produced a SW to any in the Danzig–Green Desert sire line
  • Storm Cat line sires have produced the most SW (12)
  • Following him are Mr Prospector(10), Danzig (10 including 5 from Danehill)
  • Sadler’s Wells has produced 6 with the most G1 performers (2)

The sole G1 winner from a Danzig line stallion Bellamy Road (from Chief’s Crown) was Diversify who won 2xG1. He joined War Admiral, Dr Fager,  Alydar and Kelso (who won 3 times)  as winners in the time honoured Whitney Handicap (now the Whitney Stakes ). The winner of this race automatically qualifies as a starter in the end of season Breeders Cup Classic worth $8m. So it is worth winning. But I diversify.

What does the PRI say?  

A PRI score can tell us the projected racing ability of Winx progeny. The PRI score for the I Am Invincible progeny is 68.8 which in my library suggest it will be unlikely to win in the city. Galileo would probably produce a stakes winner with a score of 88.5.   The best local I found was Lonhro with a score of 91.7 but you would need a colt because that is G1 territory. The Danehill line and there is plenty around would be worth investigating but I haven’t done that.

So, is I Am Invincible a good match for Winx?  I will let you draw your own conclusions.

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares? (Part 2)

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The Breeding Performance of Let’s Elope

We are investigating the phenomenon or myth of the nexus between champion race mares and champion brood mares. The breeding performance of Let’s Elope can provide some insight. A gifted racehorse that had her moments of fame in the spring/autumn 1991-1992. Four G1 victories: Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, McKinnon Stakes and Australian Cup. She went to America but her exploits there did not reach that of her Australian deeds. She began her stud career in America.  Let’s Elope visited  consecutively the best available stallions from the three most influential sire lines of her time. There is nothing better than Danzig, Storm Cat and Seeking the Gold (Mr Prospector). Her breeding record is set out below:

How do we interpret these results? 

Firstly the six runners all won at least one race. I have a mare that also has six winners out of six runners, but she was purchased for $3750. Looking at the list of stallions served by Let’s Elope it is not a case of the best to the best, more like the best to Superstars! There are only two SW (G2) wins in the progeny so you would have to say the breeding failed to deliver. A contrary view has been expressed. The PRI scores show that these stallions were unlikely to produce serious winners.These scores are calculated after the event and the information may have been different in 1996-2008. However, it is my experience that once the data reaches a statistical significant level, the PRI values don’t change much. 

What would we expect?

A useful bench mark for a champion mare at stud is Urban Sea (Miswaki-Allegretta). Urban Sea won the 1993 Arc de Triomphe, She produced 7SW who amassed 26 SW between them including 14 G1 in America, France, England and Ireland.  One of her sons,.Sea the Stars also won the Arc  and Galileo is another son with two Derbies and super sire status. to his credit.

Uran Sea resting in Ireland

Closer to home we could mention Toltrice (Matrice-Tolaldo) who between 1972-1974 won 7 races graded then as Pr. Included was all the fillies classics in Melbourne in 1972 and the G2 Phar Lap stakes in Sydney 1973. It is my recollection that she was third in the Doncaster in 1974. Toltrice produced 5SW who won 16 Black type races between them including a G1. Toltrice was the dam of two separate winners of the Memsie Stakes, Tolhurst (1980) and Almurtajaz (1989).. G1 status is now held by the Memsie Stakes.Very impressive.

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares? (part1)

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There has been plenty of discussion on this matter. As we approach the next breeding season it might be time to revisit the topic. Much of the discussion revolves around the different views on what a champion is and what is a success or a flop.However,what can’t be denied is that the progeny of champion Australian and NZ race mares fail to earn much when tried as racehorses.

Firstly we are talking about an overall champion horse. A mare that has succeeded at the highest level each year for at least 3 years.  Not a 2yo champion, nor a 3yo champion, there will be one of those every year. We are talking about a mare that has successfully tested herself in open company against others who aspire to be called champions.

How many of the champion mares are there?

Information published and attributed to  Arion, states that there were 306 mares of champion level in Australia in the period 1938-2008 (70 years). This means that on average there were 306/70 = 4.37 in Australia in any year. Extrapolating this data to the present and given that a champion’s career should go at least 2 years (and in my view 3 years) this means there are 2×4.37 = 8.74 or 3×4.37 = 13.11, champion mares running around today.

We have Winx but who are the other 10 or so? If a definition of a champion is suspect then the conclusions drawn from it are equally suspect. There has to be winner of each of the 73 G1 races currently on offer in Australia but that does not make the winner a champion. Remember Andy Warhol “… in the future everyone will be world- famous for fifteen minutes.”

We all wonder about the future

Well what is a flop?

The simple test is that if the horse does not recover its sale price (or its market value if not put into the ring) it is a flop.  Some may argue about residual value but that is conjecture.

In order to examine the issue further we examined the progeny of five mares of the 21st century. Their champion status cannot be questioned. They won the title of Australian or New Zealand horse of the year.The stake money earned by their progeny appears in the table below.

*Ethereal has been added to the list, she was runner-up to Sunline as Australian Horse of the Year. There can be no doubt she was a champion.

How do we interpret the results?.

The results hardly support the view that champion race mares throw champion progeny. A couple of the mares are still producers but the signs aren’t promising.The average of $27,000 per foal is very poor. It makes my own modest attempts of 19 named foals winning an average of $47,000 looking good. My mares cost less than $10,000.  These progeny aren’t cheap. $1.3(NZ) would have bought you the Stravinsky-Sunline colt at the 2017 sales. Why do Champion Australian and NZ race mares fail to become Champion  broodmares? We shall discuss this at a later date and make comments about why it is so..