MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

Posted on January 2, 2021 by robertjemison5481

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

The MM Yearling Sales Catalogue lists 1273 yearlings. It It will soon be underway with a plethora of young unproven sires, some sires on their way up and some on their way down. I won’t attempt to review them all, even if I had the space. I have carried out a pedigree analysis of a number of interesting horses and set down four that I believe will be superior race horses.

Lot 245 (b f Fastnet Rock-Dreams and Wishes)

Fastnet Rock 19th in World Sires

Fastnet Rock is rated 19 in the world sires’ premiership, and Galileo is 12 in broodmare sires (by earnings). The combination has produced international winners in America, Europe and Australasia. The score is 20 SW with 8xG1 (5f ,3c) and their offspring have won the Epsom, AJC and Victorian Oaks. There is no reason to suppose that this filly could not add to the list. The PRI analysis shows an excellent meshing of sires and certainly points to a SW. Her female line goes right back to Rainbird the winner of the 1945 Melbourne Cup

Lot 461 (b c Lord Kanaloa – Laguna Azzurra)

Lord Kanaloa breaks track record at Nakayama

Whenever you see a horse sired by the world’s number 2 sire its useful to take notice. This horse is a three-quarter brother to Tagaloa who won the G1 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes. Unfortunately, he broke down in the spring before he could really show what he was capable of. Lord Kanaloa was a 6xG1 winner himself and was a sprinter-miler. However, his progeny has excelled over more distance. Almond Eye, his best horse, has 8xG1 and the tag of world champion 3yo filly to her credit in addition to two Japan Cups (2400m).

Lot 518 (b f No Nay Never-Ma Mara)

No Nay Never wins G1 in France

Twelve months ago, I expected No Nay Never to do big things. Well, he has been a little slow getting off the mark in Australia although he has increased his SW from 18 to 25 internationally. He has SW winners in USA, UK, Ireland, France, Italy and NZ. These horses have won in the range 1000 -1600m. So, if you are looking for a sprinter this could be your go. No Nay Never’s best horse is Ten Sovereigns who added the July Cup (probably Europe’s most prestigious sprint race) to his SW collection last year. His dam, Seeking Solace, is by Exceed and Excel which makes Lot 518 a three-quarter sister to Ten Sovereigns. With a PRI rating of 95.8%, he is well into Black type territory

Lot 911 (ch c Written Tycoon – Tuscan Sling)

Written Tycoon-11 G1 winners

Written Tycoon has gone from almost obscurity to a super sire in a few years. His progeny like winning the big races and there have been 11 individual G1 SW. Essentially a sire of sprinters, none of his G1 winners has won beyond 1600m. Tusan Sling is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, ranked number 20 in the list of the world’s leading broodmare sires. His female progeny are very versatile and love throwing classic winners. Epsom Oaks, English Derby, Irish Derby, and Hong Kong Derby -the list goes on. Dosage suggests Lot 911 to be a fast sprinter.

However, I believe that although he may be able to win such races as a young horse, his career could extend into the classic distances, that is until he runs out of puff. The cross of Written Tycoon with Danehill Dancer mares has produced three SW. Music Magnate won the G1 Doomben 10,000, Written Beauty won the G3 Red Roses Stakes and It is Written won three listed races all over 1200m. PRI of 92.1% suggest the mating is genetically sound

There are plenty of excellent yearlings In the MM Sales Catalogue 2021. The task is finding the right ones at the right price.

Can a Cheap Horse be a Stakes Winner?

Posted on December 27, 2020 by robertjemison5481

Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.

The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.

Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)

Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)

This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score. She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1

Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)

He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score. His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.

Broodmare Sires

Pentire is the broodmare sire of Opalescence. His SW/R is 4.6% which is low but not hopeless compared with other broodmare sires in NZ, Northern Hemisphere, and Australia. (See Table 2). The same applies to Danzero, the broodmare sire of Paniagua.

Other Pedigree Examination Tools

Oasis Dream

Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert. Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross. Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses. But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.

Conclusions

Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”

Sex Selection in the Sire

Posted on December 13, 2020 by robertjemison5481

It is not easy to track genes in racehorse families. Occasionally, statistics can indicate that there is sex selection in the sire. The catalogues have started to arrive so how do we use the information to buy a winner? Well, it is a useful document to find most the information in one place. However, a catalogue is unashamedly a selling document and to improve your chance of success you need to know more. Sometimes the information that is not there is just as important. Both sides of the pedigree require more data. Here is a tip for the male side.

Performance of the Sire

This information can be found in the Australian Stud book or Stallions.com.au, or a number of similar data bases. The data shows things like stallion fees, winners/runners, best performers, premiership tables, siblings etc. However, sometimes you have to dig deeper than this. To illustrate the sort of information which could be useful in your investigations let’s look at the stallion performance of Foxwedge (Fastnet Rock-Forest Native).

Foxwedge

Foxwedge was an excellent racehorse. In the G1 William Reid he pushed Hay List and Buffering into second and third places. As a Sire he has a winners/runners ratio of 43.7% which puts him close to horses like So You Think (44.4%) and Nicconi (41.7%). However, what makes his performance worth another look is the fact that his progeny has won three of the highest quality G1 races. Not all G1 races are the same no matter what some industry people say. The table below lists some of the important winners of these races that have been won by his daughters.

All three of Foxwedge’ s G1 winners are fillies. Further investigation shows that of his 18SW, 15 are fillies and 3 are colts. Is there some sort of sex bias operating here? Is it a case of sex selection in the sire? Well, that may be true to a small extent as In the 2013-2015 crops there are 178 fillies and 142 colts. However, this difference would not explain the SW disparity. It could be chance or is there is a sex-linked factor expressed in the X chromosome of Foxwedge that is related to racing performance. This gene is reinforced by the X chromosome in some of his mares. How do you use this information? If you are interested in Foxwedge progeny, give preference to the fillies. At a service fee of only $11,000 they are definitely worth a look.

Is Best to the Best the Best way to find or breed the Best Racehorse?

Posted on January 29, 2019

Breeding From Quality Mares

There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.

Importance of Genetics

Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.). All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.

The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.

An Example of Breeding Quality Mares to the Best that worked

Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners

Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014

The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares. The breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3^rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career

What is a PRI?

The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money. The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, Mr Prospector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram.

A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehill son (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).

So my advice to people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?

Good luck, we all need plenty of that.

Home

We offer a Thoroughbred Pedigree Analysis service for Broodmare Mating and Stallion Credentials as well as our PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) analysis system.

PRI provides an excellent additional tool for relating pedigree to potential racing Ability.…………..

What makes a good race horse?

Galileo: Great Pedigree and Racing Ability

According to the experts there are three factors: Genetics, Environment, and Luck. About 35% of racing ability is inherited according to experts which may explain why horses who have impeccable pedigrees fail to fire on the track. However, unless a horse possess the right genes, the rest won’t matter. Pedigree and Racing ability can be meshed. A PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is a new tool which can assist a pedigree analysis. PRI comes from linking pedigree and racing ability. Environmental influences include such factors such as nutrition, training methods and the age and sex of the horse.

The role of luck!

Statistically speaking, luck will even out over many runs and a considerable length of time. However, a thoroughbred’s career generally doesn’t stretch that far. About 25 is the average number of runs in Australia for each horse. Not long enough to remove the bad luck factor. Bad barriers, wet or hard tracks, exceptional opposition, jockeys mistakes can all affect the outcome of the race. The bad luck factor covers all of these.

Invincible Spirit the world’s latest Super Sire

Genetics

Of the three factors, genetics is the most important. A poor quality horse is unlikely to win the Oakleigh Plate even if it draws barrier 1 and has Australia’s best jockey aboard. In human terms, a 5’8” man is unlikely to play in the NBA no matter what his ball skills or attitude to training are. The ability conferred by his genetics is not there for the job. Hence it is important to produce the best progeny available from the stallion/mare cross. To do this the breeder has to use all the information he or she can muster . Similarly a purchaser must also understand these matters to ensure their investment is based on the soundest analysis they can make.

PRI: linking pedigree and racing ability

The traditional way of assessing a horses chances on the racetrack requires a detailed pedigree analysis. The breeder/purchaser can make employ a number of various breeding theories to measure a horse’s likely ability on the track. We have developed a new addition to improve this analysis which is termed the Pedigree Racing Index (PRI). This measures the link between pedigree and racing ability. Decisions about the breeding program for a mare will benefit from a PRI score. Similarly, additional information for an existing horse can influence a purchase decision. The PRI score is assessed against the horses in our data base. Similarly ,for virtual horses contemplated as part of a breeding program. Contact Dr Bob on 0417540698 for a chat.

Racing Performance and Pedigrees

PRI: Linking Pedigree to Racing Performance

The study of pedigrees is a wonderful way of getting close to the greatest race horses in history. However, how can we link that knowledge to the goal of breeding a superior race horse? Superior is defined by the ability to win races and earn stake money to pay its way. We need to be able to relate pedigree with racing performance. The Sales Catalogs do this to a degree, but these documents are selling an outcome based on racing performance X racing performance. These characteristics may or may not be necessarily linked. What we need to look at is an outcome showing racing performance linked to pedigree X racing performance…

John Henry: Rated 23rd in America’s top 100 racehorses of the 20th Century

PRI: Developing a System

We have been developing a system which will better link racing performance to pedigree termed PRI (Pedigree Racing Index). This involves measuring the compatibility of stallions in the first four generations and applying statistical methods to come up with a % figure which is related to the probability of the horse being a superior race horse. We can then relate this number to the library of PRI scores for many horses built up over the years. The PRI scores in the library range from 100 to 43.3. Only two horses has received 100. One horse won at 10 of 12 starts and earned $3.88m

Have I found PRI helpful?

Does it work? The evidence I can show using PRI measured by linking pedigrees with racing ability is the result of my breeding program over the last 15 years. My mares cost between $250 and $11,000.

Named	Winners	Wins	Placed	Stakes	Av $
19	13	37	2	$888,817	46,779

In comparison with the above, I have raced 11 horses with other owners. Nine of these horses were winners and their average earnings were $26,722.

Can PRI be useful?

Is the PRI analysis foolproof? Certainly not. It sometimes gives results that are not easy to explain. Racing performance linked to pedigree is still a very useful tool as the following will demonstrate. At the yearling sales a few years ago a friend of mine bred a horse by Encosta De Lago and it made $250,000. The horse was well conformed and looked very powerful. I had already given this horse a PRI of 47.3 and believed it would probably never win a race.

However, I didn’t think it was my prerogative to tell neither the breeder nor the purchaser of my opinion. The horse is racing in Hong Kong and last week I looked for the performance of the now 6 years old.. But I was wrong because he has won two minor races bit it took 38 starts. PRI analysis might have avoided the expenditure for such a limited return.

Pedigrees

Breeding and Genetics

Since ancient times man has known that some domesticated animals are better than others. They produce more milk, they are stronger, faster, they have better progeny and so on. Although our forefathers understanding was hazy at best, they believed it was true and in their own way they tried to use it to their advantage. Later when an understanding of breeding fostered by the work of Mendel, Darwin, and now molecular biologists, we pretty well understand the process and are in a position to make good use of it. However, there is still one big problem. When you are attempting to breed a superior race horse you know you are going to get four legs, a tail and a head. But it is the complex factors you are interested in. Soundness, speed, attitude, health, a good immune system and competitiveness and, to find these it is not that simple. There are complications in breeding.

Why it’s not a Straightforward Process

The biggest obstacle that stands in your way is the very thing that affects all species

Love your mares: Stephen and his friend Chrysin

on the planet, and that is the genetic base of survival. Sexual breeding begins with the joining of the sex chromosomes of a male and female. In human terms 23 from the mother and 23 from the father. Horses have 32 plus 32. In the formation of the sperm and eggs, chromosome pairs are split in a process called meiosis. However during the process there is always a crossing over or shuffling of genetic material between the pairs of chromosomes. Thus every sperm and egg cell is slightly different. This is why brothers are not identical to each other and a sister is not identical to her sister. This crossing over is not so great that a mare will suddenly drop a zebra foal. But these complications in breeding could affect those minor factors (in genetic terms) that the horse breeder is critically interested in. A heap of Nobel Prizes await those that can sort this out and certainly the University of Kentucky and others have an interest in the equine aspects of this issue.

How to Live with the Uncontrollable

The fact that there is a random factor floating around in every horse mating which is likely to have an impact on the well thought out plans of the breeder should be acknowledged. However, because it can’t be controlled and the “randomness” may be little or great, the breeder must proceed on the basis that it will be inconsequential . Despite its acknowledged limitations a pedigree analysis is the first starting point for any breeding program.

Super Sire Galileo

A Breeding Plan

So where does that leave us in the big scheme of things? How do we handle the complications in breeding factor? How do we increase our chances of breeding a superior racehorse? My view is to approach the task the way those people involved in racing select the winner of a race. They considering the horses previous form, the distance, the jockey, the barrier, the opposition, the state of the track and any other factors that believe relevant and come up with their selection of a winner. Are they always right? No, but they are right more often than the pin method or a selection based on lucky numbers. And so it is with mating horses. The breeder has to incorporate from the prolifera of breeding theories available, those factors which they consider relevant and come up with a breeding plan. Will it always work? Of course not. But it’s likely to produce a better racehorse more often than some of the reasons I have heard in the past. These range widely.

This stallion is the closest to our farm
I use the alphabet rule-I send one mare to “A” the second to ”B” and so on
My girl friend lives close by and my wife thinks I am with the mares.
I go with the cheapest within 3 hours drive.

The methodology of picking a winner is the same on the racetrack as it is in the breeding barn. Only the inputs are different. As Damon Runyon, the great American newspaperman, short story writer and lover of the racetrack had wise words about this. “The race may not always be to the swift nor the victory to the strong but that’s the way you bet”.

About

About Dr Bob Jemison

Starting Early

I loved going to the race track from an early age but my thoughts never focused on becoming a breeder and owner. My grandfather Percy Duncan took me to Cheltenham Racecourse in South Australia. He frequented the course quite often. He had quite a thing for Victorian riders and horses-“They don’t come here for nothing” was his favourite saying.

Dr Bob

The Christmas Handicap was held on Boxing Day and the Port Adelaide Cup was on the 28^th A public holiday in South Australia. My earliest memory of those events was Cellarman winning the Port Cup. I was 5 at the time and this was the first of many Christmas Carnivals he took me to. I was also there in 1961 when Tulloch won the S J Pullman Stakes to become the first horse in Australia to pass the 100,000 pounds ($2000,000) stake earnings mark. To get there I and my friend Jim Miers had to walk from home. We crossed the railway tracks at the back of Holden’s factory. Next under the fence at the 5 furlong barrier start. It was then a walk to the straight to the 9f 69 yard start. To see such a Champion, it was worth the time.

When the Government were set to sell the racetrack, I wrote a Letter to the SA Government pleading for them to reconsider and John Letts gave a passionate speech at a public meeting at the Woodville Town Hall in support. But all to no avail –unless it is election time governments have no inclination to listen to the wishes of the public.

Why I Love Oakbank

Nishiazabu-A nomination for Hose of the Year 2016

Grandpa also had great affection for the Easter meetings at Oakbank racecourse. He once owned the Great Eastern Hotel at Littlehampton which was the closest pub to the track. Unfortunately the Great Depression wiped him out but his love for Oakbank remained. The first winner I remember was Royal Pentzia. I have a vague recollection that this horse started in a Melbourne Cup and went out with a huge lead before stopping to a gentle trot –but I might be mistaken.

Later it was a great thrill for me as a breeder and part owner of Nishiazabu who had three starts in the race. However, the best he could do was a second. But he got a nomination for Horse of the Year in 2016.

Racing Around The World

I maintained my interest in racing when I studied in England and attended a number of great races. Ribero in the St Leger at Doncaster in 1968, and Highland Wedding in the Grand National at Liverpool in 1969. I met up with Steve Roman, a fellow organic chemist, and he told me of his interest in horses. This is set out in his excellent book DOSAGE Pedigree and Performance published in 2002. In 1970 I returned to Australia armed with a BSc in Biochemistry and Honours, and a PhD in Organic Chemistry and joined a Chemical Company. At one point I ended up running an animal health business!

At Hollywood Park with Julie Krone and Gary Stevens, two of the greatest jockeys that ever lived

Race Club Administration and Travel

I moved to Ballina on retirement and did a lot of travel. I was able to attend some exciting race meetings overseas and met some wonderful people. Two Kentucky Derbies, the last Hollywood Gold Cup, Irish Derby, Chester Cup and visits to Singapore racing were all wonderful times.

There came an offer to join the Board of the Ballina Jockey Club and I was only pleased to accept. After seven years, two as Chairman, I was sacked with the rest of the Directors when the Club ran out of money. The financial problem was due to the Club’s inability to race on more than 50% of its meetings. Wet tracks meant no racing and no income. All the time I was a Board member and many years prior, the NSW racing authorities were always promising to upgrade the track. A new track, especially a Strath-Ayr surface would mean the Club could race on 100% of programmed race days not 50%. It was inevitable that with little income at some point the Club would no longer be able to continue operating. The Directors might have gone but the track has not been renovated and meetings are still abandoned..

Before I became a breeder owner, in 2000 I partnered with others to buy and race horses. My initial steps were only moderately successful. Some did win races but were not up to city standard and they were far from self-supporting. There is enjoyment in racing horses as a member of a team (syndicate) and the social interaction is rewarding. However, as I learned more about pedigrees and racing, and the role of a breeder and owner, the more it seemed to make sense to breed and race my own. I have had a winner in every Australian State except Western Australia.