Category Archives: Yearlings and Sales

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026

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The thoroughbred racing industry appears to be in the middle of a boom. Stake money has increased dramatically but so has the cost of racing a horse. Syndication has resulted in many new owners optimistically hoping they have a share in a champion, and even a share in a winner is a moment of glory to treasure. The first step is selecting a winner, and the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026 is a good place to start looking.

Lot 11 ch c Toronado – Di Lusso 

Toronado, himself a dual G1 winner, is rapidly rising in the international sires ranks. To date he has sired 44 SW. His statistics show SW/r 4.18%, and G1w/r 4.18%. Toronado’s best horse is the dual G1 winner Tribhuvan. In the USA he was successful on turf in the United Nations Stakes over 2200m. His second-best horse is Masked Crusader winner of the G1 William Reid Stakes over 1200m.  So, he has versatility. The cross Toronado to Lonhro has produced Twain’s Angel who won the Scenic Blast Stakes at L level over 1200m.  The PRI score for Lot 11 is 97.1.

Lot 318 b c Ole Kirk – Sei Stella

Ole Kirk is another of the Best in Show matriarch family showing up in a stallion line making good. He is only represented by horses racing as 2yo and 3yo at present. His

                     Ole Kirk

first crop of 2yo produced four SW which is a good start. However, it’s early days yet. I seem to remember Domesday had a similar start to his stud career but then faded out. Ole Kirk has a SW/r score of 5.33%. Ole Dancer is his best horse to date with a win in the G1 One Thousand Guineas of 1600m. The cross of Ole Kirk and Not a Single Doubt has already produced a winner. Prestige Forever won a 1200m Stakes race at the L level.

Lot 494 b f Toronado – Attribution

Exceed And Excel: a champion in retirement

We have already made comments about this sire’s prowess. It is difficult to find a broodmare sire with the international calibre to match him. However, Exceed and Excel   is a good fit. His name appears on the dams’ side of the pedigree of 159 SW.  Overpass, a four-time G1winner in Australia and overseas is the best performed horse with Exceed and Excel as the broodmare sire. The cross between Toronado and Exceed and Excel has one SW. Laced up Heels was successful in a L race over 1400m.

If you are interested in buying a horse or just want to look at wonderful yearlings, then  Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026 is worth a visit.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2026

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First I would like to thank the large number of well wishes who went out of the way to help me during my health problems and the condolence they expressed after the death of my wife Janice. Over the last 12 months fortunately, my health has improved, and you can expect a continuous stream of postings. It’s 12 months since my last posting and I start by selecting three yearlings that have the right genetic makeup and are listed in the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale in February 2026.

Lot 86 b f  Dundeel – Intelligentsia

Dundeel is a well-established and successful sire. He is the sire of 53 SW (33 c, 20 f). SW/r 5.55%; G1W/r 1.57%. His best horse is Militarize (3xG1), including the Golden Rose of 1400m. Most of his progeny are sprinter/milers although he does have a G2 winner in South Africa over 2801m. The cross between Dundeel and Exceed and Excel has produced Tannhauser, the winner of the Rough Habit Plate a G3 over 2000m. With a PRI score of 92.1 she is worth a look.

Lot 162 b or br c Trapeze Artist – Majestic Pedrille

Trapeze Artist is moving up the list of sires. Jumped 21 places from last year. He has produced 10 SW (4 c, 6 f). SW/r 4.35%; G1W/r 0.43%. His best horse is the G1

Trapeze Artist

Caulfield Guineas winner Griff. His progeny has won in distance 1000 – 2400m including the G3 Colin Stephens Quality. The cross of Trapeze Artist to Octagonal has already been twice successful. Facile won a G3 over 1200m and Ducasse a G3 over 1600m. A PRI score of 87.3 suggests consideration.

Lot 283 ch f The Autumn Sun – Pandemonium

I don’t like I told you so stories but while The Autumn Sun was still racing, I predicted his success as a sire in my post – The Autumn Sun: Another Step Towards Greatness – in March 2019. I also predicted he would be most successful in siring winners at the

The Autumn Sun

classic distances. His record to date is 11 SW (4 c, 7 f). SW/r 5.31%; G1W/r 1.93%. His 4 G1 winners are in a group of prestigious races this country has: Autumn Angel: Australian Oaks; Coco Sun: SA Derby; Autumn Boy: Caulfield Guineas; and Autumn Glow: Epsom Handicap.  The cross The Autumn Sun to Sebring has already produced Autumn Mystery a G3 winner over 2000m. With such a super pedigree and a PRI score of 93.5 if you’re serious about owning a classic winner she should be on the list as one to look at.

If you are interested in quality, then Inglis Classic Yearling Sale is the place to be.

MM Yearling Sales January 2025

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The Yearling Sales program is about to get underway. The results will be euphoria and the feeling of having found El Dorado for some. And pain and disillusionment for others. Whatever your equine needs you will find it at MM Yearling Sales January 2025. The trick is making the right choice. A few clients have suggested listing the best roughie and I have alluded to their request with my selections. The more data there is the better the predictions PRI will give. For example, a new sire that has no SW progeny, the maximum PRI score is 80. Whichever process you use for your selection, good luck.

Lot 74 br f           I am Invincible – Villa Carlotta

I am Invincible  has already produced three SW from Street Cry mares. Shuffle Dancer was successful in a G2 for 3yo over 1409m, Waltz on By won two L races for 3yo both over 1409m. Commemorative won a L race over1107m. These three winners were all females. SW/r was an excellent 7.89%.  The dam’s pedigree is of the highest class. Villa Carlotta is inbred to Dancing Show (dam of Shantha’s Choice) and Twyla (dam of Hurricane Sky). Lot 74 has a PRI rating of an impressive 90.8

Lot 358 b c         Sword of State – Empress Cixi

The choice of Lot 358 is not encouraged by a PRI score of 68.3. However, as explained in the preamble because Sword of State has sired no SW the maximum score he can attain is 80.0. We must look at other factors. Firstly, there is no reason to believe his stud performance won’t be similar to other stallions in the male line: Northern Dancer> Danzig> Danehill> Redoutes Choice> Snitzel. Secondly the female line is super strong. It boasts a 6GFI of 23.9. This number is one of the highest I have come across.  Hidden in the descendants is the 5 times G1wnner Royal Palace. The English Derby was one of his wins.

Lot 877 ch c       Bivouac – Sandrelli

The comments made on PRI scores in Lot 358 are relevant. However, a PRI score of 77.1 is more encouraging. We have previously spelled out what a great sire/broodmare sire Exceed and Excel is and has been. The cross of Exceed and Excel over Street Cry has produced seven SW with SW/r of 4.86 We consider that Bivouac should prove to be equally compatible with Street Cry. Bivouac could hit the ground running with this colt.

Lot 913 br c       Grunt – Shamar

Those of my fans who have asked for a selection they can afford, this is my roughie. The Best in Show influence continues to produce not only good horses but superstars. Almond Eye is the latest example.  On the dam’s side, Shamar comes from the line Hela Dubai> Dancing Show> Show Lady> Best in Show. Grunt comes down the Northern Dancer> Last Tycoon> O’Reilly line. He has produced two SW. Multiple SW Veigt won the George Ryder G1. Miraval Rose was successful at L level for 3yo over 1409m. Lot 913 has an average  PRI score of 76.3. An explanation for this is the relatively low number of mares served by Grunt (135). The stud performance of Van Nistelrooy doesn’t help. However perhaps the injection of Storm Cat blood could work wonders.

The MM Yearling Sale is an enjoyable event. I look forward to seeing you there.

MM National Yearling Sale 2024

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The MM National Yearling Sale has been a good source of value for money thoroughbreds. The 2024 Sale should be no exception. However, they could be harder to find. The Sales are dominated by new sires. Also,Danehill and Danehill sons’ duplication add to the complexity. From the MM National Yearling Sales 2024 I have selected three colts with pedigrees that should make good racehorses.

Lot 1316 b c       Dundeel – Grito

Dundeel is a well-established sire of good horses. He has 30 SW; six have won at the G1 level. His colts have out-performed fillies 4:1. SW/r is 5.22%; G1/r is1.39%. On the dam’s side the female line 6GFI is 4.58%. Written Tycoon is part of this line. The cross Dundeel – Redoute’s Choice has been most productive. It has produced five SW, all males. Celestial Legend is the best horse with 2 xG1 wins as a three-year-old. The Randwick Guineas and Doncaster Handicap. A PRI score of 95.0. What’s next for him?

Lot 1399 b c       All Too Hard – Perfect Stranger

All Too Hard has 23 SW to date: SW/r 3.26%. His best horse is undoubtedly Alligator Blood whose record is 6xG1, 3xG2, 2xl. Best win was probably the Futurity Stakes.

Alligator Blood

The dam has a female line with a 6GFI of 6.10%. The best horse in the female line is a toss up between the 3xG1 winners Westminster (ManiIkato Stakes) and Veloso (MacKinnon Stakes and Sydney Cup). The cross between All Too Hard and Red Ransom has produced two SW. Alligator Blood has already been referred to and the other is Tarka, winner of the G2 Stan Fox Stakes of 1500m. Lot 1399 has a very high PRI score of 95.4.

Lot 1522 b c       Snitzel – Zastava

Snitzel: Champion Sire with 199 SW

Snitzel has proved a worthy replacement for Redoute’s Choice at Arrowfield. He has never sired an out and out champion (at least by my definition) but scores of excellent horses. His tally of 199 SW, SW/r of 4.94% testifies to that. The dam’s side if the pedigree is very interesting. She has a stellar 6GFI of 11.9%. The female line includes:

  • Stony Bay 2xG1, winner Tancred and Ranvet Stakes
  • Ethereal 4xG1, winner Caulfield and Melbourne Cups
  • Darci Brahma 5xG1 winner of T J Smith (1600m)

It is rare to see such diverse talent spread in a pedigree. The cross between Snitzel and Encosta de Lago has produced 13 SW; SW/r is 5.07%. There have been five G1winners. The most recent is Communist, winner of the Randwick Guineas of 1610n. Lot 1522 has a PRI score of 98.8.

If you are able to attend the MM National Yearling Sale you will enjoy your day.

 

Inglis Easter Sale 2024

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales 2024

The wonderful Inglis Easter Sale is almost here. There are 500 Lots on offer. This is a recovery from 457 in 2023. There is somewhat a changing of the guard. A few old established sires have retired, and fresh youngsters have replaced them. I have selected four yearlings which based on pedigree are worth a look.

Lot 27 (b c Maurice – Fenway)

Maurice has produced to date 24 SW. Colts outnumber fillies 2 to 1. SW/r is 3.88%.

The cross of Maurice to the High Chaparral female line has already produced 2 SW.

  • Shigeru Park Ruby won a G2 fillies race in Japan over1406m.
  • Noah “N” Deal won L Tattersall’s Crown over 2113m.

Maurice: Six G1 Victories

The female line comes down through Denise’s Joy and is both prolific and high class. Six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.6%. There isn’t enough room in the catalogue. High achievers such as Primus, Thorn Park, Bentley Biscuit and Ego have been left out. Lot 27 has a PRI score of 97.5. Black Type territory.

 

Lot 28 ( b c Maurice – Fifteen Aria )

Following on the comments on Lot 27, Lot 28 comes from an interesting female line. The cross Maurice with the Danehill stallion Fastnet Rock has produced one SW.

  • Danon Ayers Rock won a L race in Japan over 1811m as a 2yo.

The female line of Lot 28 has a very impressive 6GFI of 22.4%. The cross to O’Reilly raises a few yellow flags. Last Tycoon crosses sometimes fail to achieve a breeder’s expectations – but sometimes they make a champion. A PRI score of 88.8 somewhat reflects this.

Lot 414 ( b c Exceed and Excel -Allez Bien )

With Exceed and Excel being rested from further stud duties, this is a chance of owning one of his last progenies. The sire of 317 SW, it’s a good reason. Exceed and Excel has SW/r of 4.09%. The cross to O’Reilly has already produced two SW.

Exceed and Excel: sire line of 317 SW

  • Dublin Don was the winner of the G3 Pago Pago Stakes over1208m as a 2yo.
  • Invictus Spirit won the L Starlight Stakes over1107m.

The female line of Lot 414 has a very encouraging 6GFI of 13.6%. The PRI score a healthy 94.2.

Lot 498 (ch c Per Incanto – Dreamlife)

Per Incanto had only a modest record as a racehorse. However, he seems to be making up for it as a sire. A SW/r ratio of 4.91 is up with the best of them. Of his 28 SW the best known is the Newmarket Handicap winner Roch ‘N’ Horse. The cross to Danroad has produced one winner.

  • Lost and Running was successful in the G2 Workwear Premier Stakes 1208m.

The female line has a quite acceptable 6GFI of 5.31%. Lot 498 a PRI score on 98.3

The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is always a great event If you can be there, good luck.

 

Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale 2024

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The Magic Millions Gold Coast 2024 Yearling Sale heralds the commencement of the list of Australian thoroughbred yearling sales. Twelve months ago, in this MM Sale, I posted my choice of three fillies that I considered had the pedigree to do well. Now named, Joy of the World, Starzzaborn, and Toque, only Torque has stated in a race. A third at Wyong, following wins in barrier trials at Randwick and Warwick Farm, is a promising start. One observation I have made from the catalogue of 1468 yearlings is the number of Danehill and Danehill sons crosses breeders continue to make.  Consider the mares put to that excellent sire Extreme Choice (11 SW and SW/r 13.35%). Of the 19 yearlings in the sale,12 (63%) are inbred to Danehill. The owners are obviously no fans of my blogs.

The yearlings I suggest my readers should look at are all fillies:

Lot 28 br f Wootton Bassett – Patsy Boyne

Wootton Bassett is already the sire of 50 SW with a percentage of SW/r of 6.76. The cross to Galileo has produced 3 SW. G1 winners are Zellie (2yo winner Prix Marcel Boussac over 1610m) and Al Riffa (2yo winner Vincent O’brien over 1409m). Chindit was a prolific winner, 2xG2,2xG3,4x L. The PRI score of 93.8 bodes well for her future.

 

Lot 59 br f Maurice – Princess Charlotte

Maurice is an established sire with 23 SW and a 3.79 percentage of SW/r. His best horse to date is Hitotsu. Winning three of Australia’s most important G1 3yo races. AJC, VRC Derbies and Australian Guineas aren’t a bad package. Overall, the cross to Redoute’s Choice produced five SW. The SW/r of this cross is 9.09%. When considered with a PRI score of 100. Lot 59 is certainly worth a look.

 

 

Lot 327 br f Savabeel – Urban

Savabeel

Savabeel is an outstanding sire. He has sired 128 SW. His SW/r score of 10.39% is remarkable. Kawi, his best horse, was a seven times G1winner in NZ. The cross to O’Reilly has produced an astonishing 36 SW. This figure is 28% of his total number of SW. The score for SW/r is 12.16%. The best horse is Probabeel winner of the Futurity Stakes. With a PRI of 98.3, Lot 327 could add to the list.

 

Lot 417 b f  Russian Revolution – Altairs Glow

Russian Revolution

Russian Revolution is a relative newcomer. Although he has only 8 SW he shows plenty of promise. His figures for SW/r are 3.88%. The cross to Australia’s  leading broodmare sire Encosta de Lago has produced a G1 winner. Communist won the Randwick Guineas over 1610m. A PRI score 95.0 suggests a very good racehorse.

I hope you can get to the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale of 2024. You will enjoy the experience.

 

 

MM National Yearling Sale

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It is now time to focus on the MM National Yearling Sale for 2023. Four hundred  yearlings are catalogued. Many of these have excellent pedigrees. The challenge is to find ones that will make good racehorses. I have selected four that are very well bred and have high PRI scores. Certainly, they are worth a physical examination. A word here about conformation.. As the great trainer John Nerud (the man who invented the American Breeders Cup Series) is quoted as saying “Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook conformation”. Get advice from an experienced trainer. He will know if a yearling’s comformational “faults” will prevent it from reaching its full potential on the racetrack.

Lot 1442 (b c Xtravagant – Arc)

Xtravagant has produced 5 SW (SW/r 5.05%). Two of these are from a cross to the More Than Ready female sire line . The SW/r number is 66.67%. He’s Exceptional won a L race as a 3yo over1208m.  His sister, Xtravagant Star won  a L race over1107m. The female tail line of Lot 1442 is not exceptionally strong with 6GFI of 6.03%. However, Arc is where the action is and  a PRI is very good at 94.2.

Lot 1481 ( b f Night of Thunder – Chicago Star)

Night of Thunder crossed with Exceed and Excel has already produced two SW, both fillies. This shows as a SW/r value of 25%. Lola Showgirl won a G3 in the UK over1409m and River Night won a L race for 2yo over1006m.

Night of Thunder

The 6GFI of 19.6% is exceptional. The female line contains US Army Ranger, second in the English Derby and a starter in a Melbourne Cup. Both Night of Thunder and Exceed and Excel are versatile in their roles of sire and broodmare sire. Something exceptional could happen. The PRI is very good at 97.1, which adds to confidence.

Lot 1505 (b of br c Pride of Dubai – Di Alta)

Pride of Dubai is off to a great start as a sire. Already twenty SW and three G1 victories. The cross Pride of Dubai to High Chaparral has produced three SW. Desert Lightning won the G2 Avondale Guineas over2113m. She’s Fit was successful in the WA Oaks (G3) over 2415m. Splendiferous was successful in the G3 Premiers Cup at 2415m and the L Port Adelaide Cup over 2515m. The score of SW/r of 20% is very impressive. The female tail line is also impressive with a 6GFI of19.2%. The great sire Darshaan is the best performed horse. The PRI score is the maximum of 100.

Lot 1567 (b c Dundeel – Italia Bella)

The cross Dundeel – Fastnet Rock has produced a L SW. Cerberus won the Hill Stakes over1811m. The SW/r is only a modest 3.23%. However, the strength of the pedigree is in the female tail line with a 6GFI of 20.5%. Impressive enough, and highlighted by the mare Grand Luxe (Sir Ivor – Fanfeluche). Fanfeluche was

Fanfreluche in retirement

Canadian horse of the year and US Champion 3yo filly and when sold she was the world’s most expensive mare.  L’On Vite (dam of Holy Roman Emperor) is part of her female line. PRI score of 97.5 is worth noting.

Every Year the MM National Yearling Sale is a wonderful event. Hope you can make it.

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale May 2023

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The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale of 2023 has 191 Lots for sale. Eighty-nine stallions are represented. The majority are new or untried. The sale gives buyers a wide choice. However, it makes it harder to evaluate the offerings. I have selected three yearlings that rank highly on my system. I believe they are worth examination.

Lot 21 b f Star Witness – Bonyatta

This cross of Star Witness to Street Cry has produced two SW fillies. Alsephina was successful in the G3 La Trice Classic over 1811m. Threeood won the G3 Gosford Belle of the Turf over 1600m. Street Cry is rapidly rising the list of successful broodmare

Street Cry

sires. His best effort to date is the triple G1 winner Cascadian, an Australian Cup winner. This cross has a very impressive SW/r score of 18.2%. The female 6GFI is 11.0%. Boosted by the Eight Carat female bloodline, Octagonal, Danewin, Commands, Tristalove etc. The PRI score of Lot 21 is 95.8.

Lot 44 b f Brazen Beau – De Sea Eagle

The cross Brazen Beau to Flying Spur has produced two SW. On the Bubbles was a G1 winner of the Manawatu Sires in NZ over 1409m. It was also successful in 3 L races. Bello Beau was successful in two L races in Australia. Statistically this cross has an SW/r ratio of 9.52%. The female line has 6GFI of 7.85%. Petrova the dual G1 winner in South Africa is the best horse. She won the Fillies Guineas of 1600m. Lot 44 scores 87.9 in PRI analysis.

Lot 143 b c Starcraft – Rezyana

To date this cross has produced one SW. However, this colt has the pedigree to add to it. The SW/r score is only a modest 4.0%, but the female tail line could produce

Starcraft

something magical. The cross Starcraft to Redoute’s Choice produced Lorimer Street winner of the L St Albans Stakes as a 2yo over 1208m. The 6GFI is 8.91%. Looking back down the tail female line one finds Spring Adieu (Buckpasser-Natalma). Natalma is of course the dam of Northern Dancer. Nothing wrong with the male side of the pedigree either. The PRI score for Lot 143 is 98.3.

 

 

 

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has an interesting list of yearlings from untried sires. Certainly they need physical examination.

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023

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The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023 is about to get going. The number of horses on offer is down from the 514 in 2020 to 457. However, the quality is up. Based on pedigree this draft in the best I have seen since I started my reviews. I have selected six yearlings which I consider are worth examination.

Lot 9 ( b or br c So You Think – Absolution)

This cross between two outstanding sires has already produced five SW. Their progeny

So You Think: 10 times G1 winner

won at distances from 1200m to 2000m. Headed by Inference (Randwick Guineas) and D’argento (Rosehill Guineas). The female line of Absolution is not strong but adequate to suggest this colt should be competitive at the classic distances. A PRI score of 91.7 reinforces that view.

Lot 12 ( b c Snitzel – Acquired )

This colt brings together most proven sire lines. Three SW have resulted. The best performed is Patroness. She was successful in the G1 South Australian Oaks. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.12 which is quite respectable. The best horse was probably Rostova, winner G1 Sangster Stakes over 1200m. Lot 12 has a PRI score of 92.5.

Lot 112 ( b f Pierro – Electric Dreams)

Pierro is certainly picking up speed as a SW sire. His score is now 34. Redoute’s Choice mares have contributed 10 of these. Nothing to show that the trend won’t

Pierro: tripple Crown winner: now making it as sire

continue. Arcadia Queen, Regal Power and Levendi-all G1 winners. A calculation of 6GFI gives a modest value of 4.82. However, the female line does hold some excellent horses – Grand Armee, Tristalove, Anamato, Dance Hero to name a few. Lot 112 has a presence proximity to some of these. A PRI score of 92.9 is another confidence booster.

Lot 166 (b f Pierro – Hetaera )

Some of the comments made on Lot 112 are relevant to Lot 166.The presence of Famous Star in this pedigree doesn’t help. Nevertheless, a PRI score of 95.6 is more than useful. From the pedigree of Lot 112, Rory’s Jester is replaced by Royal Academy. This appears to be a better fit. One of the best horses in the female line is Lolita Star who won the Wakeful Stakes (G2). She followed this up with a third in the VRC Oaks.

Lot 260 ( b c Deep Field – Nakataan )

Deep Field has been a successful young stallion. He has already sired 22 SW including three G1 winners. Practically all his winners have been sprinters. Portland Sky won a

Deep Field: young stallion on the way up

G1 Oakleigh Plate and races don’t get much more hectic than that. The cross to Zabeel seems to preserve the speed of the progeny. There have been three SW from the Deep Field /Zabeel cross – all have been successful at 1200m or shorter.  The female line has good depth with 6GFI of 8.81. Triumphal March, winner of a Moonee Valley Cup of 2600m is there.

Lot 378 ( b f Pierro – Spina Rosa)

Lot 378 is like Lots 112 and 166 but the tail line female can make all the difference. Woodman, through Mr Prospector, adds considerable physical strength to this pedigree. The female line has a 6GFI of 10.7 and shows great versatility. The sprinter Falkirk (6 times a SW in Australia and NZ and 4th in the Kings Stand at  Ascot in England ) and Lord Reims ( Caulfield Cup winner and three times winner of the Adelaide Cup ) are both part of the pedigree. The cross Deep Field/ Woodman has produced one SW. A Very Fine Red was successful in the Alinghi Stakes over 1107m. Albeit it is along way down the pedigree (1×5). Lot 378 rates very high with PRI Score of 95.4

If you are able to make it to Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2023 may good luck be your companion.

 

PRI Analysis Reviewed for 2020 Yearlings

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The importance of a  pedigree analysis which can be related to racetrack performance cannot be overstated. There are many factors to be considered when undertaking an analysis. You cannot just base your hopes on one. I have added another tool to my system of analysis. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index ) which quantifies the compatibility of the various stallions making up a pedigree. The higher the number, the more likely the horse will be a good performer. PRI does not replace other analytical methods, it just helps reaching a  more rounded conclusion. In an industry/sport where the outcome can come down to centimeters if not millimeters, all factors need to be considered to give you an edge in making the right selection. Most of this complex mixture of factors can be performed adequately by paper studies. Other factors such as conformation faults which will impede the performance of the horse, athleticism, courage, will to win, need a more hands-on approach.

Selections from 2020 Sales

Any process based on the application of a scientific method (no matter how shaky the science is) should be tested against the results. I selected fourteen yearlings in the 2020 sales and  produced a brief synopsis of the data in posts on flavonebr.com as the sales rolled on throughout the first half of the year. Now that these yearlings have matured and had their 4yo birthdays it is a good time to make an assessment. This is set out below:

Review of Selections based on Pedigree Analysis from the 2020 Sales

Of the 14 selections, nine have started, seven have won races and one has been placed. Collectively, their performance in Black Type races was G1 (2ND), G2 (2ND and 3RD), G3 (2 Fourths ) and L (2 Seconds). Total earnings was $635k. Some of the most successful horses are still racing.

The selections were made addressing a  number of pedigree relevant issues

  • Both Meritable and Undoubtedly Lucky are products of a Delta Cross ( Redoute’s Choice x two of his sisters,  Monsoon Wedding and Lucky Raquie). This factor was given more emphasis than the relatively Low PRI scores. Meritable was quite successful and the other was not.
  • For reasons I am not privy to Our Teofilo and Sunday Legend have been sent to stud without racing, or why Across the Dawn went overseas, or why some horses haven’t raced
  • I have rated the horses in traffic light terms: green, yellow and red! Some of the yellows might make it but I hold out little hope for the reds.
Conclusions

It is difficult to compare my results with “the Industry Standard”.  The most useful comparison is found in the excellent paper by Garry Mackrell (The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses).  This comparison appears in the table below

I am first to admit that my numbers won’t past the test of sigficality (if there is such a word). On the other I looked at many hundreds of horses to come up with the 14 selected ones. Overall I am happy with the results achieved by the chosen horses. I have learned more about my selection process and hope for more achievement from the next (2021) sales results. Pedigree analysis is worth the effort.

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

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Gold Coast National Yearling Sale 2022

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale is always a great event. This year I have concentrated my search on finding yearlings with high PRI scores and strong female (tail) lines,

Lot 1524 b f Brazen Beau – Za Star

Brazen Beau has made a promising start as a sire. He has recorded 16 SW and a SW/r of 4.69%. His colts have performed better on the racetrack than the fillies-13 to 3. Dosage suggests a middle distance horse so she probably won’t be at her best in the early 2yo races. The female line is strong with a 6GFI  of 16.6%. Probably the best horse in the female line is Lucia Valentina winner of 4 G1 including the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

The cross Brazen Beau x Zabeel has already produced two SW

  • General Beau, winner of Blue Diamond Prelude 1100m (G3)
  • North Pacific, winner of Up and Coming Stakes 1308m (G3)

A PRI Score which is 95.0 indicates a high quality filly.

Lot 1655 b c Swiss Ace – Go Kate Go

Swiss Ace was a very fast race horse. I guess you have to be to win an Oakleigh Plate. At stud he has a useful record of 14 SW and SW/r of 3.22%. Dosage predicts Lot 1655 to be a very fast horse which should be an  early starter. The female line is incredibly strong with a 6GFI of 49.6%!!The female line just rolls with SW and champions. Undoubtedly,  this colt has the strongest female pedigree of any horse in the sale. Commands, Danewin,

Klairessa – start of a dynasty

Octagonal, Deep Field, Shooting to Win, Tristalove etc etc. I examined this female line for a previous client and concluded that the key mare in the line up was Klairessa the dam of both Eight Carat and Habibti. Most breeders followed down the Eight Carat path and bred champion stayers. Habibti , one of Europe’s best ever sprinters also went down this track without much success. So breeding the line to a very fast horse could produce something exceptional.

The cross Swiss Ace x More Than Ready has already produced two SW

  • Little Giant won in Hong Kong 1000m (G3)
  • Top Prospect won in New Zealand 1500m (L)

A perfect PRI score shows this horse is worth a look.

Lot 1745 b c All Too Hard – Mnemonic

We have commented before that the statistics of All Too Hard improve year upon year. He has now a record of 14 SW with SW/r of 3.22%. Colts out number fillies 9 to 5. Dosage predicts a miler- middle  distance horse. The female line of this colt has a very attractive 6GFI of 13.2%. Jetball and Marwina are relatives in the female line.

The cross All Too Hard x Hussonet has already produced a SW

  • Hard to Think won the Singapore Derby 1811m (G3).

With a nearly perfect PRI score this could be an exceptional colt.

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale will have many good horses than the three I have studied. Its an event not to be missed.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

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Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

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The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

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So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

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The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.