Category Archives: Linking Racing Ability to Pedigree (PRI)

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares ? (Part 5)

Posted on by

The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.

Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)

Race Track Performance

Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.

Arcadia Queen-great race mare

Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)

This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.

Stallion Selection

Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.  I am Invincible is considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.

Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)

In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.

                                      Black Caviar Breeding History

According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case.  Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!

 

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part 3)

Posted on by

The Inglis Great Southern Sale will conclude with the offer of 125 Broodmares. It takes much more time to assess a broodmare especially one in foal, than to assess a yearling. Two investigations are needed. First the mare must be assessed on her future capability to deliver a foal that will be a winner. Secondly the pedigree of foal she is carrying must be assessed relating it to the chance of it being a winner. We have carried out an evaluation of two mares lots 463 and 499; both in foal to Street Boss.

Lot 463 ch m Socialista (Served by Street Boss)

Socialista (New Approach – Ambitious Lady) scores 290 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is a way of measuring how her immediate family and herself rate in producing SW. In a sale like this the average MMI value is around 500. However, her 6GFI (six generation female index) is a stellar 22.1%.  The difference shows that the female family is a rich producer of SW but that Socialista is not in its strongest vein. Nevertheless, on balance, it is a very good female family.  Most of the success is due to the influence of Anna Paola, champion 2 and 3yo filly in Germany three generations back.

Mr Prospector: Sire of 67 SW and a dynasty

New Approach (Galileo – Park Express) a five times G1 winner  has recorded eight SW as broodmare sire. Two from Mr Prospector and two from Sunday Silence line stallions. Of the six previous mating of Socialista, only one was to a Mr Prospector line stallion (Street Boss) and it is her only winner.

The cross Street Boss x New Approach has already given a 2yo G3 winner. Heresy (Street Boss – Montsegur) scored over 1208m at her second and only start to date. The foal from Street Boss – Socialista has a PRI score of 91.9 which suggest a winner of high quality

Lot 499 g m Bugaboo (served by Street Boss)

Bugaboo (Mutakddim – Bavarian) scores 640 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is above average. The 6GFI is a healthy 15.8% although there are only 19 horses. Whether this is caused by some inherent fertility fault in the family I haven’t investigated but it is a fact to bear in mind.  Bugaboo has apparently completed 4 successful foalings which is good news. House Rules (Distorted Humor – Teamgeist) one of the three SW in the female line, was successful at G2 and G3 level in America. Her pedigree shows 3m x 4m to Mr Prospector.  It appears the females cross well with Mr Prospector sire lines and this bodes well for the foal from Street Boss x Bugaboo.

Street Boss: already the sire of 44 SW

In his role as a broodmare sire, Mutakddim has produced 20 SW. Eight (40%) have been from Mr Prospector line stallions. The cross Street Boss x Mutakddim has already given On the Back Streets (Street Boss – Mutakaway). This filly won two L races over 6.5f. The foal from Street Boss – Bugaboo) has a PRI score of 86.0 so it should be able to win.

The Great Southern Sale has some wonderful horses. I hope you are successful.

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part2)

Posted on by

The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th – 5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have selected two weanlings of interest, Lots 82 and 208. In my next post (Part 3) I will address the pedigrees of two broodmares in foal, Lots 463 and 499. Firstly, a word about the two broad strategies of breeding racehorses – breeding to sell or race.

Breeding to sell

If you want to breed a horse to make money the strategy is very simple. Go and buy a G1 SW mare off the track and put her to a top stallion. Remember these mares are not cheap. Nor are service fees for top stallions. You don’t need to know much about horses or breeding-just plenty about money management and return on investment.  When put in a Sale as a yearling, buyers will pay big money for the progeny especially if it looks strong and healthy.  If you have followed my posts, you will understand that this type of mating approach rarely produces a horse that will recover its purchase price in earnings. However, once the purchase has taken place that is no longer the breeder’s concern. From a buyer’s point of view there have been some catastrophic failures.

Eight Carat: Super broodmare of five G1 winners

If the breeder is very lucky, he could purchase a mare who turns out to be a great producer. There aren’t too many of these around

  • Helsinge’s (Black Caviar, All Too Hard)
  • Eight Carat (Diamond Lover, Kaapstad, Marquise, Mouawad, Octagonal)
  • Urban Sea (Melika, Galileo, My Typhoon, Sea the Stars)

Breeding to Race

If, however you want to breed a horse that will win races you need to examine the pedigree of the mare and consider access to a stallion with compatible blood lines.  This should be done before purchase. Good planning will considerably improve your chance of success. Things to look for in the mare are the strength of the pedigree, history of racetrack performance of the mare and her immediate family, and breeding performance if any. Any genetic problems that may be passed to the offspring should also be looked for.

When buying a mare, you should ask yourself why is this mare in foal?  Is it the result of a carefully crafted breeding plan? Or is it an opportunistic event where the seller hopes that a pregnant mare will sell for a higher price more than a barren one. The real cost of the offspring to you will be a minimum of $20,000 before the hammer falls at the auction. Will the sale recover this money?  Purchasing a mare in foal requires considerable investigation. You need to decide if the foal is either going to sell well if you take that option. Or the foal’s pedigree suggests it should be a winner. A PRI score will help you there.

To provide additional information to answer the question is the pregnancy an opportunistic event we can look at the covering sires in the Inglis Great Southern Sale. There are 47 sires and 29 of them have never sired a SW.  Eight have sired less than 10 SW.  It can be said that only 10 stallions are established sires. You can draw your own conclusions.

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2021 (Part 1 )

Posted on by

The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th -5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have organized my deliberations into two parts.

Inglis Southern Sale Part 1 Weanlings

Purchasing a weanling has the advantage that the horse is obviously older than a yearling and looks more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. The disadvantage is that you will usually pay more for it.  There are two weanlings in this Sale that appeal to me on analysis of their pedigrees. I consider they are worth looking at to assess their physical characteristics before considering a purchase.

Lot 82 b f Toronado – Morwell

Toronado (High Chaparral – Wana Doo) was anointed joint 3yo world champion colt with a record of 2xG1, G2, G3, L). He is off to a good start as a sire with 14 SW to date and a strike rate of SW/R of 3.76%.

Royal Academy: an incredible 155 SW as broodmare sire

Morwell (Royal Academy – Marwell Lady) wasn’t hopeless on the racetrack. Although she did not win, she had four starts for three seconds. Her female line with a 6GFI of 6.5 is encouraging. The most accomplished horse in this line was Stage Hit (Century – Oh Calcutta) who won 2xG1 and 2xG2. If I remember right, she was trained by Bart Cummings when she won the Edward Manifold Stakes.

The cross Toronado x Royal Academy has already produced the L stakes winner. Laverrod (Toronado –Demasheen). This horse won the Hareeba Stakes (1208m). A PRI score of 85.8 tells us that she has a pedigree to win in the city.

Lot 208 b c Iffraaj – The Kipling Girl

Iffraaj (Zafonic – Pastorale) was essentially a sprinter on the racetrack. He was first in three G2 races over 7f, and second in the G1 July Cup. The is the preeminent race for sprinters in the UK. At stud his sire line has produced 89 SW with a SW/R score of 5.49%. For comparison Redoute’s Choice has a SW/R ratio of 4.60%.   Some of Iffraaj’s progenies have won beyond sprint distances. Gingernuts (Iffraaj – Double Elle) won both the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and NZ Derby (2400m), at G1 level.

Iffraaj: sire of both sprinters and stayers

The Kipling Girl (High Chaparral – Mrs Kipling) comes from a strong female family. Her 6GFI is 11.3. She was successful on the race track.

The cross Iffraaj x High Chaparral has produced a G1 winner Wynspelle (Iffraaj – Western Star), winner of the prestigious Captain Cook Stakes (1610m). The pedigree is bristling with SW. Of the first 14 horses in this colt’s pedigree, 9 are SW.A PRI score of 89.2 puts this horse in the winner’s category

The Inglis Great Southern Sale may be delayed but if you are buying or selling horses its worth your attendance

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

Posted on by

MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sales

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale has 615 yearlings to go under the hammer. Like most sales there is plenty of untested sires and a few that have more than proved their mettle. For those who have followed my suggestions you will note that I like More than Ready as a broodmare sire. He is currently leading the Australian Broodmare sires list with a w/r ratio of 47.2. Don’t get confused with sires listed by stake money won. In the  days of mega prize money on a few select races these lists are pretty meaningless. Overall, he has a SW/R ratio of 4.95%. When matched to All Too Hard it climbs to 6.98%. All Too Hard has steadily improved his ranking to reach number 4 (by w/r). The cross All Too Hard to More Than Ready is worth following up. It has already produced three SW

• Forbidden Love (All Too Hard – Juliet’s Princess) G1 Surround Stakes,
• Wellington (All Too Hard – Mihiri) G1 Chairman’s Surprise Sprint in Hong Kong,
• Outrageous (All Too Hard – Fit and Ready) G3 over 1509m.

All Too Hard Sire and Broodmare Sire More Than Ready

There are four horses available in that category in the Sale. All are worth considering

Lot 1456 b f All Too Hard – More Graceful
More Graceful won one race in five starts. Lot 1456 has a PRI Score is 97.1 and a 6GFI 7.45. She is essentially an outcross but shares an inbreeding to the brother and sister combination Northern Dancer-Spring Adieu (4m x 4f). Danehill 3f x 4m remains a concern for me but it hasn’t affected the PRI score unduly

Lot 1575 b or br c All Too Hard – Spice Temple.
Although unraced the mare has shown she can throw winners. Lot 1575 has a PRI Score of 95.4 and his female line 6GFI is 9.87. In this line there are two VRC Derby winners; Redding and Nothin’ Leica Dane.

Lot 1785 b f All Too Hard – Gigi Girl
Three wins over a bit of distance points to All Too Hard being a useful match. The filly has a PRI score of 96.7 with a 6GFI of 12.71. This figure is up with the best. Not surprising when you list some of her ancestors. Apart from those named in the catalogue you can add Benicio, Romneya, and Ortensia.

Lot 2016 b or br c All Too Hard – Just for Naara                                                    Mare unraced but has produced a good winner. The colt has a PRI Score of 86.3 and a female line 6GFI 6.67. There a bit of explanation needed here. This is a very fertile female line. There are 599 descendants and good horses are rather rare in most of the pedigree. However, around Ciboulette and her daughter Franfreluche by Northern Dancer, sparks begin to fly. Frafreluche became US Champion 3yo filly of the Year. From her line came Grand Luxe, Krupt, Flying Spur, Encosta De Lago, and a host of others. Just for Naara is in the thick of these.

                      Exceed and Excel Super Sire

Lot 1422 b c Exceed and Excel – Looking for Love

Exceed and Excel is a worldwide power with his sire line producing 216 SW with a SW/R of 4.23%. He is regarded as primarily a sire of sprinters. However, in his top ten hoses of his sire line there is a scattering of SW victories over 1800 or longer. In fact, his best horse Barney Roy (Excelebration – Alina) won at G1 In Germany over 2415m with three other G1 victories. Alina was by Galileo which suggest Exceed and Excel can pick up staying blood from the right mares. Lot 1442 has a PRI Score of 90.4 and a 6GFI of 7.18. The cross Exceed and Excel with Street Cry mares has produced two SW. September Run (G1 Coolmore Classic 1208m) and Promotions (L Canberra Guineas 1409m).

There will be plenty of good horses sold at the Gold Coast National Yearling sale so good luck. I will be there too.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 3 )

Posted on by

MM Sale Part 3 Racefillies

The sale of racefillies is an important part of this MM Sale Series.  It may well be that the broodmare of your choice has been served by a stallion you are not comfortable with. Another reason may be the perceived increased price of the mare or perhaps the pedigree of the future foal indicates that it is a poor match. I covered this in my last post. You have another option. Purchasing a race filly where you can select a stallion of your choice. Where do you start? I suggest you look at the broodmare statistics for W/R (winners /runners) . Ignore any statistics based on prize money. Since NSW created these huge purse races this data is of little use.

Savabeel (Zabeel – Savannah Success) 

Savabeel making his mark as a broodmare sire

The son of Zabeel  is currently second on the list of broodmare sires on the basis on a W/R of 39.2%.. He is the broodmare sire of 13 SW including the G1 winner of this year’s Goodwood Handicap  Saxatoxl (Kuroshio –  Li’l Miss Hayley). There are five racefillies for sale in the MM catalogue: Lots 526,574, 575, 615,and 671. Of these fillies Lot 526 Missybeel (Savabeel – Sitting Pretty) has the highest MMI score of  450.Her 6GFI is 7.69. suggesting the female line is reasonably strong. Keeper (Danehill – Nuwirah) also a winner of the Goodwood Handicap is part of the family.

Stallion Selection 

We have examined Missybeel and decided she meets our criteria of what a good broodmare should be. The next step is to examine her pedigree to assess what bloodlines are a suitable match. My homework says look at stallions down the Green Desert line ( Danzig – Foreign Courier). Thirty percent  of Savabeel’s SW as a broodmare sire are from this line of stallions.

Fascino>Charm Spirit>Invincible Spirit> Green Desert

Free of Will>Power>Oasis Dream>Green Desert 

Cloud Surfing>Oasis Dream>Green Desert

Stella De Paco>Paco Boy> Desert Style>Green Desert

And there are plenty around. Seven at the last count and growing.

Using the new sire Magna Grecia (Invincible Spirit – Cabaret) as a  test I calculated a PRI score for the cross Magna Grecia – Missybeel of 73.3 which is very high considering the sire has no SW at present. I also did Lot 575 (Shimmer Lake : Savabeel – Grey Swallow ) with Magna Grecia for a PRI score of 68.6.  So I believe using the Green Desert connection puts you  on the right track.

The sale of racefillies is always exciting and the MM is the place to be.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2021 (Part 1)

Posted on by

MM Sale Part 1 Weanlings

The MM Weanling and Broodmare Sale is about to get underway. In the MM Weanling Sale section there are plenty of lots on offer to meet the need and aspirations of the buyer. The  budget can also be met. Weanling sales have the advantage that horses are usually less expensive than those at the yearling sales.  The advantage of buying a yearling is that it will look more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. A weanling has more growing to do. It will cost you money while it develops. Having looked at a number of weanling on offer, we have selected two fillies in the MM Weanling Sale that we consider will make successful racehorses.

Lot 78 b f Dubwai – Entisaar

Dubawi was excellent on the track with three wins at G1 level in France and Ireland (7f-1600m). He has 271 SW with a ratio 8.17% SW/R. Gender split is roughly equal. His best female horse was Bonneval (Dubawi – Imposingly, 3xG1, 2xG2, 1xG3).She was the winner of both the NZ and AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes. Dubawi’s progeny have won from 1000m to beyond 2500m with nine out his 10 best horses being miler/stayers.

Dubawi rated 18th in World list of international sires

The Mare

Entisaar (More than Ready – Purrpurriena ) was a G1 winner in South Africa. Her female family has a 6GFI of 4.41% which is reasonable. There is plenty of speed in the female line. Pre Catelan (by Lunchtime) was an exceptionally fast 2yo  that won both the Breeders Plate (L) and Silver Slipper (G2).Another family member Tangiers, won three G3 races (1200-1400m).

The Cross

The cross Dubawi – More than Ready has already produced a G3 SW.  Run Naan won the Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) in 2017. Dosage shows  a middle distance performer but with enough speed to be an early runner. The PRI score of 92.5 indicates the filly could be something special.

Lot 242 b f Exceed and Excel – Witches

The Sire

Exceed and Excel is currently 8th on the Australian Sires premiership table and 20th in the International listing .His line has 215 SW with SW/R at 4.25%.His best filly is Guelph (Exceed and Excel – Camarilla, 4xG1,1xG2, 1xG3).His top ten horses can be split equally into sprinters and Miler/Stayers. Certainly a sire of world status.

The Mare

Lohnro: How successful a broodmare sire will he be?

Witches (Lonhro – Ouija) had a very useful racing career with three wins. Her female line has a very high 6GFI value of 10.9% and Witches is right in the thick of things. There are  a few interesting SW in her female line Northern Drake (Underwood Stakes G1) is one of them

The Cross. 

The cross Exceed and Excel – Lonhro has proved very successful with a ratio SW/R of 7.58% .There are 5 SW produced by this cross;

  • La Tene 2 x G2 including VRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
  • Manicure, Resin, Tin Hat and Munhaaj all G3 winners (1200-1600m)

The pedigree of this filly also has a 3m (Zabeel -Eight Carat) x 5f (Sticks and Stones –Eight Carat ) which could be a useful pedigree reinforcement.

The PRI score for this filly is an exceptionally high.97.1 The MM Weanling Sale is the place to find her.

 

 

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2021

Posted on by

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale almost concludes the run of the large yearling sales in Australia for this year. Some yearlings who failed to meet the entrance criteria for the major sales are offered. There are also some which did meet the criteria but just weren’t ready for sale earlier in the year.  If you are looking to buy a horse that can win a Cox Plate then be a starter in the Arc D’Triomphe all for $40,000, this isn’t the place to look. However, if your goal is to buy a horse that can compete in your local Country Cups, you are looking in the right place.

We narrowed the 339 Lots on offer down to 15 and have chosen 2 which meet our selection rules. The number one rule is to uncover enough information to improve the chances of selecting a good individual on pedigree.

Lot 44 b f Starcraft – Sleek Anitra

The Sire

Starcraft has produced 40 SW:22 male and 18 females. He is from the Nureyev dynasty (3077 SW) which has produced some imposing horses. Lonhro, Octagonal, Miseque (dual Breeders Cup mile winner), Verry Elleegant, Almond Eye, and Makybe Diva-before we get to the lesser lights. Starcraft was an excellent racehorse.

  Starcraft

There aren’t too many sires standing in Australia that have won three G1 of the ilk of AJC Derby, French Prix du Moulin de Longchamps, and the English Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. On the face of it he appears to be underutilised. Most of his best horses are winners in the range 1200-1600m

The Mare

You can’t improve much on two wins from two starts both as a 2yo. Sleek Anitra’s second win was at Flemington over 1400m. At first glance her performance at stud isn’t that impressive: seven foals. four to race, and only one winner. However, one can find excuses.

Served three times to Anacheeva that is not a good match. Anacheeva has proved to be anything but that at stud. He has one SW out of 111 starters (0.90%). The cross to Fastnet Rock has not produced any SW in 5 attempts and the cross Anabaa x Fastnet Rock no SW in 25 attempts. Her 6GFI of 9.1% shows she should be capable of producing better.

The Cross

The cross Starcraft x Fastnet Rock has already produced two SW from 29 runners (6.9%). Our Crown Mistress (Starcraft – Barangaroo) has won two listed races (1400/1300m). Pearl Star (Starcraft – Pearl of the Sea) won a listed race over 1100m as a 2yo. She has since had a foal (Cumberbatch) that has won at both Flemington and Sandown. This is another indication that the female line has strength. The cross Starcraft – Sleek Anitra has a PRI score of 82.5 which puts her in the winners’ category.

Lot 286 b f Magnus – Light Rose

The Sire

Magnus has produced 19 SW:12 male and 7 females.  Being part of the Danehill line through his sire Flying Spur, has probably limited his opportunities with so much Danehill blood in the local broodmare population. Magnus has a SW/R ratio of 3.47%. Most of his runners are sprinters.

The Mare

The mare Light Rose never started, but the commencement of her stud duties has been promising. She has produced Magnesium Rose a full sister to Lot 286. Magnesium Rose has won three times, including a win over triple SW mare Teleplay and continues to race. Her 6GFI is 4.37% and her female line includes the 6 times G1 winner Durbridge. His victories include the AJC Derby and the Australian Cup.

The Cross

The cross Magnus – Royal Academy has already produced a L SW winner Front Page (Magnus – Stacey Lee) in the A R Creswick Stakes 1208m. Lot 286 has a PRI value 0f 88.8; definitely in winners’ territory.

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has plenty of interesting horses. Sorting them out is the task.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021

Posted on by

For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.

People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.

Things to look for in a broodmare

Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is

  • A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
  • If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.

I also like to look at the 6GFI (Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..

Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.

Lot 404 Friendly Donna (Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas

Friendly Donna had a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.

All Too Hard is currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceed and Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too Hard – Up and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.

Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging, Mannerism and Duporth to name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.

So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire

So You Think has now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405.  A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.

Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)

 

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.

I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta De Lago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.

If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021

Posted on by

The time honored Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021 will soon be upon us. The old tree may no longer be there, but the social comradery certainly will be. The Sale is skewed towards the Australian sires currently at the top of the premiership list. Of the 466 lots on offer, 55% come from the first 15 sires in the 2021 premiership table. Even though there isn’t a lot of variety, there are some interesting horses to look at. A contractual obligation limits the comments I can make in certain areas but I am free to report on some of my observations.

Japanese bred horses have a great record in Australia from very limited opportunities. Melbourne and Caufield Cups, Blue Diamond Stakes and a couple of Toorak Handicaps aren’t a bad record.  I have selected a Japanese bred horse by Deep Impact, and a yearling by More Than Ready as horses worth looking at.

Lot 103 (b or br c More Than Ready – Street ‘Em Shelia)

More than Ready is a remarkable sire and I have made comments about him before. He now ranks 43 in the world sire list and his sire line has 316 SW with 42 G1.  His progeny can win at any distance between 1000-2500m, depending what genes the dam brings to the table. The cross between sire lines More Than Ready X Street Cry has already produced three SW.

More Than Ready-Champion Sire for many years

  • Sesar (G2 Roman Consul Stakes 1100m and G3 Ken Russel Memorial 1200)
  • Miss Admiration (G3 Colin Stephens Stakes 2400m and G3 Japan Racing Assoc 2500m)
  • Mokarris (L Rose Bowl Stakes GB 6f)

Street ‘Em Shelia is part of a strong female family with a 6G female index of 11.9%. Green Dancer (3 G1, sire of 90 SW) and Authorized (joint world champion 3yo of 2007) are part of the female family. A PRI score of 96.0 points to a winner.

Lot 180 (b c Deep Impact – Admire Pink)

Deep Impact-World’s Number One Sire

Deep Impact is currently the world’s leading sire, a position he occupied in 2020. The cross between the sire lines of Deep Impact and King Kamehameha has a SW/R ratio of 14.3% and G1W/R ratio of 3.6%.  (For comparison a contemporary Australian combination is Redoute’s Choice x Encosta de Lago with SW/R 6.59% and G1W/R 1.5%). The cross Deep Impact X King Kamehameha has produced four SW. The best is Wagnerian winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun Derby.

Admire Pink comes from a high-class female family with a 6GFI of 12.6%. Her position in the female family is further away from the black type action than I would like. Nevertheless, she is still part of the family. With a PRI score of 92.1, Lot 180 is worth a look.

While you are at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021, stop to have a look at Lot 257. This filly (Snitzel –Crystal Flute) is bred on a Delta Cross about which we have made comments before. Soon, a horse bred on this type of cross is likely to be a super star. The question is which one?

MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021

Posted on by

The quality of the yearlings in this year’s MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021 is not of the same standard as their first sale of the year. Of the 419 lots on offer, only seven horses are from sires present in the top ten of sires’ premiership list. In addition, the quality of broodmares is down to an average index of around 300 compared with 700 in the yearling sales held to date. Nevertheless, there are winners to be had -finding them is more difficult. Of the horses I have examined, one is of interest. Unfortunately the data is not available around him that I would like. 

The three sires of interest in the top ten are All too Hard (Lots 9,79,262,369,404), Pierro (Lot 28) and Zoustar (Lot 40). Of these I believe the latter is of most interest.

Lot 40 (Zoustar – Beyonce’s Star)

The analysis of the pedigree of this horse demonstrates the need to rely on secondary data if primary data is not available. Primary data is that produced by looking how well the sire and dam male line cross.  The PRI score for the above match is a low 58.5. This usually means a country class horse. However, in the case of Lot 40, 37.5% of the data is missing. Orientate, Mt Livermore and Tell have few descendants in Australia contributing to the pedigree. The low PRI score can be explained by the absence of data. But for more insight examination of the secondary data is necessary.

Fappiano: Is he the key to success?

  • The mare Beyonce’s Star is a SW and is the dam of a SW
  • Zoustar has already produced at least 17SW. I don’t know if his heroics of last Saturday have hit the record books yet. Certainly, a Newmarket Handicap quinella is pretty rare)
  • Zoustar has produced a stake winner/runners (S/R) ratio of 5.54% which compares favorably with a Redoute’s Choice benchmark of 4.61%
  • Orientate in the broodmare sire line has produced 25SW (16 male, 9 female) and has an S/R of 5.5%
  • The Orientate broodmare sire line crosses well to Fappiano in the male sire line. 36% of his 25 winners are crossed to Fappiano.

The data above and the fact that Zoustar is going from strength to strength suggests strongly that this colt is worth a look. He could well be the best buy in the MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021.

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2021

Posted on by

The Inglis Premier Yearling Sale is the second sale of their selling season. There are 804 lots on offer from 119 sires. A quick scan of the catalogue shows the dominance of Danehill in the Australian breeding industry. Almost 17% of the lots are inbreed to Danehill in generations 2-4. This cross can produce winners but it would be wise to go deep into the pedigree for reassurance. Both Lord Kanaloa  and Into Mischief are strong representatives from overseas. I have selected two yearlings worthy of a look.

Lot 111 ( c More Than Ready – Kid Gloves)

More than Ready ; Great Sire and Broodmare Sire

More than Ready has been and still is a great sire. With 312 SW he is still capable of producing the best anywhere from 1000m to 2500m. He certainly not over the hill as shown by the performance of last year’s G1 Preakness Stakes winner Swiss Skydiver.  Currently rated number 40 in the International Sires list, More Than Ready is matched with Kid Gloves who is a mare from Fastnet Rock that is rated number 6 on the Australian Broodmare sires list. The More than Ready x Fastnet Rock has already  produces two G3 winners ( Ready Set Sail and Global Quest) and a L race winner (The Actuary).A PRI score of 95.0 indicates this colt will be in black type territory.

Lot 129 (f Zoustar – Lanzini)

Zoustar is a young sire on the way up. He is ranked 7 on the Australian sires premiership and produced 16 SW. Currently he appears to be a sire of sprinters; none of his SW progeny have won beyond 1400m. More than Ready is a good fit for him . He currently ranks third in Australian Broodmare sires list and he has 93 SW on

Lowan Star : a rare double AJC and Queensland Oaks

the dam pedigree side. The cross Zoustar x More than Ready has already produced a SW  in Ranting, a G3 winner over1208m.  What provides more encouragement for the future of Lot 129 is the fact that in her dam’s pedigree are two exceptional race mares.

  • Valley of Georgia (G1 Underwood Stakes, G1 AJC Oaks)
  • Lowan Star (G1 double AJC Oaks, Queensland Oaks)

These are two Powerful Mares for any filly to have in her pedigree and to see her the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale is the place to be.

 

Services

Introduction

Whatever way you look at it owning and racing a horse is going to cost you money. There is certainly a payback in terms of enjoyment but this is only significant if it wins or at least runs well. Don’t forget the size of your capital investment is a once off thing. On-going training and maintenance costs probably average over $40,000/year and even if shared are a considerable cost. Before you make a decision for few hundred dollars we can supply services to support your intentions..

Pedigree Racing Index (PRI)

PRI: Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees is a method we have developed to link a horse’s pedigree with its likely racing performance. PRI is a quantitative measurement with the result being expressed as percentage between 0 and 100. This number is compared with our data base of over 300 horses.

PRI is useful in horses in ready to race sales and calculating the likely racing ability of yearlings and progeny from a breeding outcome.

Broodmares and Progeny

For horse breeders PRI is useful tool for choosing a suitable stallion for a mare as it provides a quantitative comparison between options. We can provide a quantitative assessment of any mare using the broodmare indexing system we have built up. Any report can include a six generation female index (6GFI), traditional breeding options such as line-breeding, dosage, breeding history etc.

What are the Costs?

How much you want to spend on the investigation depends on your level of investment. For example, if you are buying do want to want to know the chances of a horse being a winner? Then the cost will be about $300. Do you want to rank the best of five you are considering buying at a sale? It will cost about $1,000. Do you want to know which stallion to put a mare to? Then the first question is how much do you want to pay for a service fee and how far do you want to ship the mare. The cost will be about $500 for one stallion and $1,000 for three possibilities. A report can be tailor made to your requirements.

All our investigations are confidential and independent – we have no allegiance to any third party.

 

If you are interested in the services that we offer you can  phone Dr Bob on 0417540698.or contact us through either our Contacts Page or E-mail our abjjem@bigpond.com.

 

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2021

Posted on by

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2021

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sales heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 803 lots on offer from 109 sires. In 2020, I set down some hints on how to find a good stayer at this venue. This year I have concentrated on looking at the progeny on offer from two of the best available. Savabeel and Tavistock have the highest current credentials to take on the mantle of best local sire of stayers. Other sires may produce a good stayer but the data is rather sparse to find one from a pedigree examination.. The information about the Savabeel and Tavistock colts in the Inglis Classic Yearling Sales is more complete.

Savabeel (Zabeel-Savannah Express)

This horse already has 102 SW with 21 G1 on the sires’ side of the pedigree. His SW are evenly split; 50 males and 52 females. Savabeel’s credentials are confirmed through Sangster (Savabeel – Quinta Special) with wins in the Victoria Derby (2500m) and Auckland Cup (3200m). There are four lots on offer all with PRI rankings between 77 to 100. As the broodmare sire (Redwood) of the lowest ranked PRI, Lot 517, has no SW so we shall concentrate on the other three.

Savabeel -super sire

Lot 69 (Savabeel – Kansas), and Lot 343 (Savabeel – Starry) both have O’Reilly as their broodmare sire. The cross Savabeel x O’Reilly has to be one of the hottest in town. 19 SW with four G1 winners including Savaria (NZ Oaks) and Costume (Kelt Capital) are two of these.

Lot 14 (Savabeel – Got It) with Pins as the broodmare sire is another excellent cross producing 13 SW. Brambles (Queensland Derby) is one of three G1 winners.

These horse score highly enough to be considered as potential SW.

Tavistock (Montjeu – Upstage)   

Tavistock has started his stud career well. He has 23 SW with 7 G1. There appears to be some sex bias towards males with 17 and 6 females. There are three Lots on offer, all colts. His G1 winners include two Victorian Derby winners Tarzino and Johnny Get Angry.

Tavistock-young sire on the way up

The cross of Tavistock x Thorn Park (Lot 7) and Tavistock x Flying Spur (Lot 148) have not yet produced a SW. Therefor we shall look closely at Lot 384 (Tavistock – Tipilk) with Volksraad the broodmare sire. Tavistock x Volksraad  produced the G1 winner Volkstok’n’barrell. He won three G1 which included the Rosehill Guineas. Lot 384 has a PRI Score of 92.3%. Whereas this is an excellent rating, the result of an examination of the six generation female line (6GFI) is something to get excited about. The index rates 5.03% which is about average for a city class field. However, the quality of some of her ancestors is exceptional as shown in the Table.

So with a female line like this there is always a chance of a champion showing up – but your odds are just over 50/1.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

Posted on by

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2021

The MM Yearling Sales Catalogue lists 1273 yearlings. It It will soon be underway with a plethora of young unproven sires, some sires on their way up and some on their way down. I won’t attempt to review them all, even if I had the space. I have carried out a pedigree analysis of a number of interesting horses and set down four that I believe will be superior race horses.

Lot 245 (b f Fastnet Rock-Dreams and Wishes)

Fastnet Rock 19th in World Sires 

Fastnet Rock is rated 19 in the world sires’ premiership, and Galileo is 12 in broodmare sires (by earnings). The combination has produced international winners in America, Europe and Australasia. The score is 20 SW with 8xG1 (5f ,3c) and their offspring have won the Epsom, AJC and Victorian Oaks.  There is no reason to suppose that this filly could not add to the list. The PRI analysis shows an excellent meshing of sires and certainly points to a SW. Her female line goes right back to Rainbird the winner of the 1945 Melbourne Cup

Lot 461 (b c Lord Kanaloa – Laguna Azzurra)

Lord Kanaloa breaks track record at Nakayama

Whenever you see a horse sired by the world’s number 2 sire its useful to take notice. This horse is a three-quarter brother to Tagaloa who won the G1 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes. Unfortunately, he broke down in the spring before he could really show what he was capable of. Lord Kanaloa was a 6xG1 winner himself and was a sprinter-miler. However, his progeny has excelled over more distance. Almond Eye, his best horse, has 8xG1 and the tag of world champion 3yo filly to her credit in addition to two Japan Cups (2400m).

Lot 518 (b f No Nay Never-Ma Mara)

No Nay Never wins G1 in France

Twelve months ago, I expected No Nay Never to do big things. Well, he has been a little slow getting off the mark in Australia although he has increased his SW from 18 to 25 internationally. He has SW winners in USA, UK, Ireland, France, Italy and NZ. These horses have won in the range 1000 -1600m. So, if you are looking for a sprinter this could be your go. No Nay Never’s best horse is Ten Sovereigns who added the July Cup (probably Europe’s most prestigious sprint race) to his SW collection last year. His dam, Seeking Solace, is by Exceed and Excel which makes Lot 518 a three-quarter sister to Ten Sovereigns. With a PRI rating of 95.8%, he is well into Black type territory

Lot 911 (ch c Written Tycoon – Tuscan Sling)

      Written Tycoon-11 G1 winners

Written Tycoon has gone from almost obscurity to a super sire in a few years. His progeny like winning the big races and there have been 11 individual G1 SW. Essentially a sire of sprinters, none of his G1 winners has won beyond 1600m. Tusan Sling is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, ranked number 20 in the list of the world’s leading broodmare sires. His female progeny are very versatile and love throwing classic winners. Epsom Oaks, English Derby, Irish Derby, and Hong Kong Derby -the list goes on. Dosage suggests Lot 911 to be a fast sprinter.

However, I believe that although he may be able to win such races as a young horse, his career could extend into the classic distances, that is until he runs out of puff. The cross of Written Tycoon with Danehill Dancer mares has produced three SW.  Music Magnate won the G1 Doomben 10,000, Written Beauty won the G3 Red Roses Stakes and It is Written won three listed races all over 1200m. PRI of 92.1% suggest the mating is genetically sound

There are plenty of excellent yearlings In the MM Sales Catalogue 2021. The task is finding the right ones at the right price.