Category Archives: Linking Racing Ability to Pedigree (PRI)

Can a Cheap Horse be a Stakes Winner?

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Currently a couple of horses have made the news because they were purchased for a low price and progressed to win impressively. So, can a cheap horse be a stakes winner? The first horse of interest was Opalescence a NZ 3yo filly who was purchased for $1,000 and won a G3 at her last start. The second horse, Paniagua, was a $600 buy and has become somewhat of a cult hero after eight straight wins in Queensland. Unfortunately, he was unable to take the easy road into the G1 Stradbroke Handicap via the $250,000 Gateway Stakes.

The story has plenty of public interest but I wouldn’t recommend buying a horse just because it is cheap. In fact, even if a horse is given to you, the training and associated costs will amount to at least $100,000 for the first 3 years of its racing life. The first step in being a potential owner is to examine its pedigree to assess the chances of it being a successful racehorse. For interest here is a brief examination of the pedigrees of these two horses. You can reach your own conclusions.

Sires relating to Opalescence and Paniagua (Table 1)

Opalescence (Showcasing – Fairy Story)

This mare has a record of 10 starts, 4-1-1 and $98,310 in prizemoney. Her PRI score is 54.0 and AEI $9.8k.. I would expect an AEI of around $2k for this PRI score.    She announced herself last month when she won the Bonecrusher Stakes (G3). Showcasing (Oasis Dream – Arabesque) although he doesn’t make the top 150 Northern Hemisphere sires, he is the sire of 41 SW with a SW/R of 6.35%. This compares favorably with his sire Oasis Dream (6.6%) and the other branch of the Green Desert sire line headed by Invincible Spirit (11.3%). See Table 1

Paniagua (Tycoon Ruler – Dani Sharleen)

He has a record of 13 starts,8-1-0 and $255,250 in prizemoney. His PRI score is 67.7 and AEI $19.6k. I would expect an AEI of around $10.3k for this PRI score.  His best win to date has been the Cairns Cup. Tycoon Ruler has not been very successful at stud. Only 2 SW after covering 681 mares giving a SW/R of 1.7%. One of his contemporaries in the Last Tycoon sire line is O’Reilly with 91 SW and SW/R of 10.1% sets the benchmark.

Broodmare Sires

Pentire is the broodmare sire of Opalescence. His SW/R is 4.6% which is low but not hopeless compared with other broodmare sires in NZ, Northern Hemisphere, and Australia. (See Table 2). The same applies to  Danzero, the broodmare sire of Paniagua.

Other Pedigree Examination Tools

Oasis Dream

Space doesn’t allow me to expand much on these. Opalescence is line bred 3m x 4m to Green Desert through Oasis Dream (Green Desert – Hope) and Volsksraad (Green Desert- Celtic Assembly). There are 8 SW line bred to Green Desert.  Play that Song (winner of G2 Eclipse Stakes in NZ) is also a 3m x 4m cross.  Paniagua has no linebreeding short of generation 4. There are plenty of crosses beyond the 4 generation for both horses.  But in my view these crosses are too far down the pedigree to have significant impact.

Conclusions

Yes, a cheap horse can be a stakes winner. Carl Nafzger, the American trainer with two Kentucky derbies to his credit sums it up this way “Once in a while you can breed the sorriest stud to the sorriest mare and produce a stakes winner. However, the percentages aren’t in your favor when you try that. Racing is a game of percentages as much as anything else and you must learn them to your advantage.”

Did a Pedigree Analysis Predict of the Result of the Victorian Derby?

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Well both yes and no; a pedigree analysis  of the Victoria Derby of 2020,did not absolutely predict the winner but did get three of the first four place getters. A synopsis of this analysis is in three parts:

Sire Line and PRI Scores

We suggested that the winner would most likely come from one of four sire lines: Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, Sir Tristram or Halo. Johnny Get Angry comes from Tavistock>Montjeu>Sadler’s Wells. The PRI scores were not put in the Blog but are

The finishing predictions based only on Victorian Derby pedigree analysis were slightly better than the betting order and certainly better for Johnny Get Angry. The PRI failure to recognize Young Werther is a mystery. Although he had few starts, that should have little influence on his score. The cross in his pedigree of the Tavistock line stallions x Cure the Blues was very poor. There were 18 Points lost here which would have raised his score to 85.6, slightly above that of the winner. I am afraid it is an imperfect world.

Deeper Pedigree Analysis for Johnny Get Angry

The more you look at this horse the better he becomes.

1 Sires

Column three of any pedigree contains the major sire lines of influence. For stayers it is hard to beat the quartet of Sadler’s Wells, Quest for Fame, Sir Tristram, and Singspiel. For those unfamiliar with Singspiel he won a Japan Cup, a Dubai World Cup, and has provided a male line to 97SW with a 1.1% G1 winners to runners. If these four stallions were not mutually compatible it would have shown up in the PRI Score

Singspiel-Great Racehorse and Sire

2 Tail Dam line

The power is show by going back three generations; Pavlova>Hospitable>Fetoon.

  • Fetoon was the dam of Markam (by Salieri), winner G1 South Australian Derby 2500m and also of Hospitable (by Luskin Star).
  • Hospitable was the dam of Fubu (by Last Tycoon), a winner of VATC Shannon Classic G2 1800m, and Pavlova (by Singspiel) who won the MVRC JRA Cup over 2040m (L)
  • Pavlova didn’t achieve much except the mating with Zabeel to produce Luminova the dam of Johnny Get Angry

All in all, a wonderful stayers pedigree for a horse to carry into the Victorian Derby, but as Robert Blake famously said “Hindsight is a wonderful thing…………………….”

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares? (Part 3)

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 The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse.

Can Black Caviar escape the great race mare breeding curse and do what few champion mares have done? Produce a racehorse with ability approaching her own? For those who don’t know Black Caviar, she won all her 25 races, $7.95m in stakes, and was Australian Racehorse of the Year 2011,2012, and 2013.  Certainly, a great race mare.

Can Black Caviar break the curse?

Is there a factor which hinders quality race mares producing outstanding racing progeny? A partial answer is in the scientific paper by A J Wlson and A Rambaut, Biol Lett 2008 Apr23; 4(2):173-175.After examining the outcomes of 554 active stallions producing 4476 foals, they concluded:

“Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential.”

As most high-quality mares are sent to the stallions with the highest service fees this outcome is not surprising There are good commercial reasons for this breeding strategy.  However, to produce quality offspring, the genes of Stallion and Dam should match well together. In order to illustrate the point lets look at Black Caviar’s record as a broodmare.

Black Caviar: Australian Breeding Record (Update October 2012)

Based on current information the PRI scores in the table mirror the performance on the racetrack. Black Caviar is off to a slow start with her two oldest offspring now retired with very modest racing results. The Snitzel filly is the pick of the bunch. It will be  interesting to see how she performs if she gets to the racetrack. The good news for Black Caviar fans is that the proposed mating with Written Tycoon should produce a high class racehorse. The PRI score of the progeny is comparable with some of the highest ranking racehorses in my PRI library. I have assessed two horses with similar PRI scores. Between them had 24 starts, won 15 times and amassed $5.5m in stake earnings. If the Written Tycoon-Black Caviar offspring can reach this performance level, she has beaten the curse.

Is Best to the Best the Best way to find or breed the Best Racehorse?

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Breeding From Quality Mares

There has been some recent discussion about the wisdom of old adage “Breed best to the best and hope for the best. “ The apparent failure of the outcome of breeding from quality mares that have failed to pass on their racing talents to their offspring has fueled this discussion. I thought it may be helpful to comment on these matters now Catalogues are available. The information may be of assistance to those wading through the catalogues. Remember the catalogues are primarily selling documents. They certainly give you information about the stallion and the dam but these are racing facts crossed with racing facts. What is needed is information on breeding facts crossed with breeding facts.The horse’s potential racing ability can be established by a more detailed examination of the pedigree at the top of the page. PRI analysis is one way of doing this.

Importance of Genetics

Racehorses are complex individuals whose success at the end of the day can depend on millimetres and there are many factors governing success or failure. Training, health, nutrition, attitude, are all important factors. Luck is the most uncontrollable element of all (wet tracks, barriers, interference in running, jockey competence etc.).  All important but not considered here. However, unless the horse has the genetic ability to perform these factors become inconsequential.

The pedigree of a horse is said to govern only 30% of its ability. If this is true then it is the critical 30%. A good human analogy is the  athlete. Consider a young person of great athletic ability who trains hard, has a great competitive attitude and is willing and looks forward to making the necessary sacrifices in lifestyle each athlete has to make if they wish to reach the top. This person wants to play basketball at the NBL level but this athlete is only 5ft tall. What are the chances of them making the grade? Very little.The task is beyond their genetic capability. So it is with horses.

An Example of Breeding Quality Mares  to the Best that worked

Firstly let’s look at the big picture of crossing the Best with the Best. The English Oaks commenced in 1779 one year earlier than the English Derby. In the last almost 250 years how many Derby winners have sired a Derby winner from an Oaks winner? None, until 2014 when the paradoxically named Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) saluted. There is some controversy that this was the first example because in 1995 Lammtarra (Nijinsky-Snow Bride) won the Derby but Snow Bride had become an Oaks winner after Aliysa, who was first past the post, was disqualified. Only five other Derby winners have been out of Oaks winners

Australia (Galileo-Ouija Board) winner English and Irish Derbies 2014

The fact that the mare and stallion may not be genetically compatable and able to produce a high quality horse is not usually mentioned in the discussion on the poor breeding performance of successful race mares.   The breeding career of Coco Cobanna shows this. Coco Cobanna was a high quality race mare. In 2000 she was winner of the G1 AJC Oaks, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, and winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and the G3 Colin Stephens. The Table:below sets out her breeding career

What is a PRI?

The factor PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) in the above Table is a way I calculate a theoretical racing performance from looking at various stallion crosses. In data base I have constructed the PRI values range from 100 to 43.3; only two horses have reached the perfect 100 and they won almost $6m in stake money.  The PRI values calculated for each of Coco Cobanna’s foals pretty well parallel their racing performance. All the major sire lines available in Australia at the time, Danehill, Storm Cat, Mr Prospector were tried using high quality sires (the Best); the only sire line missing is perhaps Sir Tristram.

A breeding strategy of Best to the Best cannot be dismissed on the basis of one result. Coco Cobanna is a good example of breeding quality mares to the best bloodlines around and was definitely a sound plan. But it failed to deliver its objective. To be statistically significant this result will probably require looking at least 20% of the horses in the thoroughbred data base which now probably exceeds 2.5m. Even with modern computers a Herculean task. However, it does show that calculation of an index like PRI will give guidance to the probable racing performance of any horse. In retrospect, armed with the knowledge above Coco Cobanna would have been better served by a Danehill son (2002 was the last year Danehill himself stood).

So my advice to  people who look at catalogues is to do more homework around the mare and its relations. Look at the broodmare sire carefully. Does it have SW from the stallion whose progeny you are looking at. If not, what about other stallions in the sire line?

Good luck, we all need plenty of that.

 

PRI:Racing Performance linked to Pedigrees

Racing Performance x Racing Performance V Pedigree x Racing Performance (PRI)

The study of pedigrees is a wonderful way of getting close to the greatest race horses in history but how can we link that knowledge to the goal of breeding a superior race horse?  Superior is defined in simple terms by the ability to win races and earn stake money and at least pay its way. We need to be able to use pedigree to predict racing ability. The Sales Catalogs do this to a degree but these documents are selling an outcome based on racing performance X racing performance. They may or may not be necessarily linked. What we need to look at is an outcome showing racing performance based on pedigree X pedigree. PRI (Pedigree Racing Index) is tool for predicting racing ability.

John Henry Rated 23rd in America’s top 100 horses of the 20th Century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Use of a Pedigree Racing Index  (PRI)

PRI is a tool we have developed for predicting racing ability. PRI will link racing performance to pedigree.. The process involves measuring the compatibility of stallions in the first four generations and applying statistical methods to come up with a % figure which is related to the probability of the horse being a superior race horse.  We can then relate this number to the library of PRI scores for a number of horses which Flavone B&R  has built up over the years. The PRI scores in the library range from 100 to 43.3. Only two horses have received 100% and between them they won 14 Stakes races with 5G1 and massed more than $5.5m in earnings.

Does the PRI system work? The only evidence I can show is the results of my breeding program over the last 12 or so years.: My mares cost between $3,250 and $11,000:

Named Winners Wins Placed Stakes Av $
19 13 37 2 $888,817 46,779

Is the PRI analysis foolproof? Certainly not. It occasionally throws up results that aren’t easy to explain. However, it is still a very useful tool as the following will demonstrate. At the yearling sales a few years ago a friend of mine bred a horse by Encosta De Lago and it made $250,000. I had already given this horse a PRI of 47.3 and believed it would probably never win a race but I didn’t think it was my prerogative to tell either the breeder or the purchaser of my opinion. The horse is racing in Hong Kong and last week I looked for the performance of the now 6yo. I was wrong-it has won 2 minor  races but it took 38 starts to do it. A PRI analysis might have avoided the expenditure for such a limited return.

Racing and Breeding Outcomes

 

Measuring Breeding and Racing Outcomes

                    English Channel Foal

There is no system using pedigree analysis and racing performance that can guarantee  breeding and racing outcomes. Biological systems are too complex. What we can do is use all the information which is available to build up a profile about each horse we are investigating. This combination of techniques will bring closer finding or breeding a superior horse than relying on random selection. It’s a bit like using a check list-the more boxes that are checked positively the closer you will be to your goals To reach a successful requires extensive use of data bases and these data bases have only become readily available through the expansion of the internet. This has enabled breeding and racing outcomes to be more closely matched.

Data Bases

We make extensive use of both free and subscription data bases including:

https://g1goldmine.com/

https://www.tesiopower.com/

http://www.studbook.org.au/

https://racingaustralia.horse/

http://www.stallions.com.au/

We also occasionally use the general internet and racing sites in NZ, USA, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Africa. 

Racehorse Evaluation

We can evaluate a horse as it stands or will become as the result of a mating using

  • Horse and family racing records.
  • Line breeding in the pedigree of the horse and proof that it has worked in the past.
  • Inbreeding especially for daughters from high quality mares.
  • A  Six Generation Female index (6GFI) from Stake Winners in the female tail line.
  • Data to provide a PRI matched against similar horses in our data base.
  • A Dosage evaluation.
Recommendations for breeding a mare

To provide a report on Stallion selection the following methods will be employed such as:

  •  complete pedigree analysis to identify the merit of line breeding and inbreeding
  • A Six Generation Female Index  (6GFI) from  Stake Winners in the female tail line
  • Identification of  Stallions for a compatibility match and which are available
  • Assessment of previous breeding outcomes and the breeding and racing results of the immediate family
  • Broodmares stallion performance
  • Stallion’s breeding record