Category Archives: Linking Racing Ability to Pedigree (PRI)

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2022

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Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale. That is the MM Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale with 1267 lots on offer. The information is overwhelming and my advice to buyers is to focus. Decide on what you want and put your attention to it. I have concentrated of finding potential race winning progeny from the coverings of the broodmares on offer. Sometimes mares are put in foal on the belief that a pregnant mare will attract more interest and more money in the sale ring. We suggest that these three mares are worth a look based on the PRI analysis of their offspring. Of course you won’t know the outcome for at least three years!

Lot 814  So You Think – Remlap’s Jewel

I have covered the exploits of So You Think before. He has sired 40 SW and has a SW/r of  5.85%.  Let’s say he goes from strength to strength. The female tail line goes back to a bit of equine royalty in Day Girl (Todman – Wenona Girl). Kinjite is also part of the female family. However, recent times haven’t been good as shown by  a 6GFI of 2.89%. The cross So You Think x Choisir has already produced a SW in So You Assume (winner of Stocks Stakes at 1610m). This mating has SW/r of 12.5%. The outcome will produce a horse of PRI of almost perfect score. If So You Think can tap into the tail line genes it will produce an excellent racehorse.

Lot 822  Camelot – Rocket Science

Camelot was an superb race horse. Only a second in the St Leger prevented him from being the first horse since Nijinsky to complete the triple crown (English Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.) Best Known in Australia as the sire of Russian Revolution (SA Derby, Underwood Stakes) and Sir Dragonet (Cox Plate, Tancred Stakes). However, his 42 SW

                   Camelot

set down an impressive list of American and European winners; SW/r 7.71%. He has shown that he can produce exceptional stayers and middle distance performers when bred to the right mares.  Rocket Science comes from an exceptional family with a 6GFI of 31.5%. The list doesn’t have a champion but has loads of black type. The cross Camelot x Fastnet Rock, with SW/r of 11.11%, has already produced a G3 winner, Youth Spirit. He scored in the Chester Vase Stakes for 3yo at 2515m.    Dosage rates this cross as producing a stayer. The PRI score is 86.7. If you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup starter, this could be the go.

Lot 912 Exceed and Excel – Tragic

I won’t go into the details of the ability of Exceed and Excel. He has a deserved international reputation. Overall, he has produced 242 SW with SW/r of 4.02%. The mare Tragic comes from a strong female family with 6GFI of 10.5%. The cross Exceed and Excel x Reset has SW/r of 5.56%, and has produced a Listed SW. Madeenaty  was successful in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes for 2yo over 1000m. The blend of speed with a bit of stamina from the Zabeel influence will produce a horse of close to a perfect PRI score.

Australia’s biggest thoroughbred sale is a must.

 

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale April 2022

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Inglis has two sales of yearlings coming up.  The first-Inglis Gold Yearling Sale,  will be held in Victoria.  With 224 lots there are  some  impressive yearlings available.Here are a couple of my selections:

Lot 160 b c Turffontein – Personal Ensign

Turffontein was a very good sprinter miler with victories in two G1 races. He saluted in both the Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) and the William Reid Stakes (1200m), both races having a proud history. The most important part of his pedigree is the descendance from Storm Cat. This line through Hennessy, Johannesburg,  Giant’s Causeway, Scat Daddy and now Into Mischief who is in the top three sires in the world. At stud Turffontein has performed moderately with 273 runners producing 7 SW. The female line of Personal Ensign is not strong  with a 6GFI of 2.0% But what action there is  around her.

The cross Turffontein to Rubiton mares has produced not one but two SW. Fontein Ruby (Turffontein – Charming Ruby) won the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m), and beat the

Fontiton as Yearling: sister to Lot 160

colts in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m). Fontiton  (Turffontein – Infinite Charm) won G2 Blue Diamond Prelude. Lot 160 is a full brother to this filly.   Full brothers and sisters rarely perform the same on the track. In this case you are looking at a glass half full or half empty situation. Half full he could win at G1 level. Even at half empty, I would be surprised if he didn’t win his share of races. He certainly should do something with a PRI score of 99.4!

Lot 53 b c Brazen Beau – Chevovessence

Brazen Beau was an exceptional sprinter who only raced to the end of his 3yo days. He won 3 G1; the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), Lightning Stakes (1000m) and the Newmarket Handicap (1200m). He has got off to a good start at stud with16 SW from 332 starters (4.82%). The dam’s pedigree is nothing exceptional with a 6GFI of 4.76%. It does however, put some stamina into Lot 53.

Brazen Beau; Champion Sprinter

The cross Brazen Beau to an Encosta de Lago mare has already produced a dual G2 SW in Pretty Brazen. She won the Sandown Guineas (1600m) and the Lets Elope (1409m). Lot 53 ticks a lot of boxes with a PRI score of 95.8. The weather should be good so enjoy yourself at the  Inglis Gold Yearling Sale.

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022

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The Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022 is the second of their selling season. There are 783 Lots on offer from 99 sires. The catalogue is well balanced between sprinters and stayers. There is also a sprinkling of overseas bred yearlings to compete with those locally bred. Our search of pedigrees looking for suitable candidates for further examination is based on matching top sires with top broodmare sires. The resulting batch of yearlings is further refined using standard pedigree examination techniques.

Lot 127 f Exceed and Excel – Nazca (by Medaglia d’Oro)

The PRI score this filly  is a stellar 99.8. Exceed and Excel has been a wonderful sire both locally and internationally with a W/R ratio of 48.3%. The female line through Nazca is excellent with a 6GFI of 17.1%. This area of the yearling’s pedigree bristles with exceptional horses. Zomorada (by Deploy) is the dam of Dubawi (now ranked second in global sires list) and  In the Wings (by Sadler’s Wells) the sire of Singspiel.

Exceed and Excel: great racehorse and great sire

The cross Exceed and Excel x Medaglia d’Oro has already produced two SW. Aquitaine winner of the L Mick Dittman Plate (1006m), and Bacchanalia winner of L Gosford Guineas.

Medaglia d’Oro is rated the twelfth best broodmare sire in the world.

Lot 463 f Medaglia d’Oro – Devout Heiress (by Speightstown)

A PRI score of 92.1 indicates a horse which should have success on the race track. Medaglia d’Oro is a successful sire (currently ranked tenth in global rankings )  with a W/R ratio of 54.4%. The female line is quite strong with a 6GFI 10.4%. Among the relations are Park Express, a dual G1 winner of both the Nassau Stakes (10f) and Irish Champion Stakes (10f), and dam of New Approach (G1 Epsom Derby).  Alfred Nobel winner of G1 Phoenix Stakes (6f) is also a family member.

The cross  Medaglia d’Oro x Speightstown has a SW/R ratio of 8.70% and produced two SW to date.  Rockefeller won the 2yo Nashua Stakes G3 (1610m), and Whatwasithinking won the 3yo  Auburn Stakes G3 (1200m). Speightstown  is a son of Gone West and is placed 23 in global sire broodmare rankings).

Lot 655 c Magnus – Rathlin Island (by Giant’s Causeway)

A PRI score of 99.2 is spectacular for this yearling.  Giant’s Causeway is currently rated the number five broodmare sire in the world. Consequently, any horse of which he is broodmare sire deserves attention. The female line of Lot 655 had a healthy 6GFI of 8.69% . Included are Mastercraftsman ( European Champion of his year), Hidden Talent (Kentucky Oaks) and Ack Ack (A four times G1 winner and America’s Champion sire of 1994.

Magnus (Flying Spur- Scandinavia); Has plenty of important relations

The cross Magnus x Giant’s Causeway has already produced a G3 winner at 13500m.  Platinum Kingdom won the Fred Best Classic and four L races in NZ including the Dunedin Guineas.

Magnus has not quite lived up to expectations. He certainly has the chance when crosses to this Giant’s Causeway mare.

Lot 779 f Foxwedge – Girona (by Giant’s Causeway)

A PRI score of 88.1 is still high enough to warrant attention. The AEI around this PRI score (expressed as a mean) is $41.7k. Foxwedge is a more than useful sire and of his 21 SW, 16 have been female. Hence Lot 779 is even more interesting. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.12%; while not exceptional it is above average.

The cross Foxwedge x Giant’s Causeway line has already produced the a SW filly Wild Vixen, winner of two L races, Bennet’s Racing Black Pearl 1208m and H C Nitschke Stakes 1400m.

There is no doubt there will be some excellent juveniles at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2022. Good luck in finding them.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2022

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The Inglis Classic Yearling Sale heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 810 lots on offer from 85 sires. This venue is known for its production of racehorses successful at the classic distances. This year I have concentrated on looking for a colt that could win at the classic distances. I have selected one from Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel). I also uncovered a filly from Spirit of Boom ( Sequalo – Temple Spirit) whose pedigree indicates it could be a very fast horse. The Inglis Classic is not only associated with classic staying horses such as the Melbourne Cup  winner Vow and Declare (War Front – Geblitz), but has produced  fast 2yos such as the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain – Courgette).

Dundeel (High Chaparral – Stareel)

A six times G1 winner, his victories include the AJC Derby. He has sired 16 SW to date including the classic winners Castelvecchio ( Rosehill Guineas), Super Seth (Caulfield Guineas), Truly Great (Kingston Town Classic ), and Atyaab (SAF Cape of Good Hope Derby).

Lot 412 b c Dundeel – Believe (by Fastnet Rock)

Dundeel beats Atlantic Jewel in G1 Underwood Stakes

The PRI value for this yearling is 98.3 which according to the pedigree analysis means an exceptional horse. The female line is a very encouraging 6GFI value of 10.4%. Two useful runners in this line are Gold Lottey (2x G3, VRC Stocks Stakes and VRC Vanity), and Informed (2xG2, San Diego Hcp, and California Stakes).  The cross Dundeel x Fastnet Rock has already produced a SW. Cerberus was successful in the Listed Hill Stakes at 1811m. If you are looking for a classic winner , Lot 412 deserves to be on your list.

Spirit of Boom (Sequalo – Temple Spirit)

A multiple SW. His most significant win was in the Doomben 10,000 over 1350m. He is the sire of 14 SW. None of his progeny have won beyond 1400m. Eighty percent of them have been at 1200m or shorter.

Lot 103 b f (Spirit of Boom – My Dear Friend (by General Nediym).

The PRI value for this filly is 90.8. She is bred to go fast. The female family on the dams side has a 6GFI of 3.36% . Whereas, this value is not exceptional, My Dear Friend is right where the action is. General Nediym is an underrated broodmare sire that has produced 42 SW.  Sixty percent of his progeny have won at 1200m or less.

Jameka: Broodmare sire General Nediym at his best

Rather surprisingly, 26% have won at 1600m or beyond. Included in this lot are the multiple G1 winner Jameka  (Caulfield Cup, VRC Oaks and BMW Tancred Stakes) and Mr Quickie (Queensland Derby). So the General is not just the broodmare sire of fast horses but can impart staying genes.

The cross Spirit of Boom x General Nediym is definitely speed x speed mating . The late Colin Hayes had exceptional results following this policy.  Dosage analysis confirms the breeding outcome producing Lot 103.  With 30 dosage points and a DI of 9.0 and CD 1.47 it is all speed. The closest I can find is the triple G1winner of the 1991 Kentucky Derby Strike the Gold (Alydar – Majestic Gold) with 20 dosage points, DI 9.0 and CD 1.30.

Both these horses are worth a look at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 2)

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So You Think

In Part 2 of my review of the MM Yearling Sales 2022, I have looked at the yearlings available from So You Think (High Chaparral – Triassic). Based on his racing performance both in Australia and overseas he is one horse where the term champion fits very well. His record of 23 starts 14-4-1 with 10 G1 victories is hard to fault. Unlike a number of stallions who have a limited  number of starts  before retirement,

So You Think: A Great Champion

So You Think never shirked a real challenge. He raced at the world’s most elite tracks; Flemington, Ascot, Langchamp, Churchill Downs, Curragh and Meydan (UAE) and against serious opposition. He started favourite 15 times in his 23 starts, ran third in a Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Arc D’Triomphe coming from third last at the turn into the straight. As expected his record as a sire was a little slow to start waiting for his 2yo’s to mature. Currently, he is the sire of 36 SW. His seven G1 winners range in distance 1509-2000m, and his eight G2 winners 1208-3219m. So he is as versatile in siring winners as he was winning races on the track. Overall, he has a SW/r of a healthy 5.61%

MM Yearlings

Here we describe three that we believe will be successful racehorses. In support of the methodology we can report on the performance of the only yearling we selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2.We have applied similar analytical methods to the three yearlings selected in MM 2022.

Lot 66 (So You Think – Fullazz by Redoute’s Choice)

The cross has produced three SW with a SW/r figure of 5.88%. Fullazz does not come from a strong female line with a 6GFI of 1.90. The best hose produced from the female line is Sizzling. He is a multiple SW including the G1  T J Smith  Stakes. Sizzling has not been very successful at stud with only one SW from 430 foals. Despite a high PRI score there has to be a situation where Art perhaps has to Science. Fullazz already has a sibling to Lot 66. D’Argento is a G1 Rosehill Guineas winner and subsequent form says this was no fluke. Whereas this might sound good, full brothers never perform the same on the racetrack (Extra Brut and Grinzinger King are a recent example) . Lot 66 could be better, he may be worse. Look closely at him. He has an excellent PRI score going for him.

Lot 262  (So You Think – Miss Anabannana by Redoute’s Choice)

As stated above, this cross has been successful three times. Miss Ananbanana comes from a female line dominated by sprinters. Two horses in the female line, Midnight Fever (Luskin Star – Campbell Fever), and Knowledge (Last Tycoon -New Acquaintance) were both winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes. The female line has a 6GFI of 6.46. The overall pedigree is very strong (seventeen of the thirty horses in the 4×4 pedigree are SW). A PRI score of 97.9 gives hope that this colt will be a good winner.

Lot 770 (So You Think – Babel by Lonhro)

The cross So You Think to Lonhro mares has a SW/r ratio of 50%. It has worked once in two attempts to produce So Si Bon (G3,2L). Unfortunately this isn’t much data. The PRI score for Lot 770 is 90.9. The female line has a 6GFI of 4.17.  Both these values are encouraging. Babel has produced a sibling to Lot 770. Racing as Statesmanship, he is off to a slow start 3-0-0-1. However, he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m which doesn’t suit his stayers pedigree,  so perhaps his record will improve. The comments on siblings made on Lot 66 apply equally to Lot 770.

Final Thoughts

Its always wise to have a good look at any horses you fancy. But don’t get too wrapped up in this. In his book Traits of a Winner, dual Kentucky Derby winning trainer Carl Nafzger puts it this way “Books on conformation are good, but what they teach does not always apply to racehorses”. Another pearl of wisdom is from John Nerud, founder of the Breeders Cup in America “ Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook  conformation.” For anyone interested in buying, selling or just looking at exceptional racehorse the MM Yearling Sales 2022 is the place to be.

 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

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The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.

 

Inglis Ready to Race Sale October 2021

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The catalogue for the Inglis Ready to Race October 2021 is now available. Ready to race sales have advantages over conventional yearling sales. The horses are broken in, fit to race and prospective buyers can see the horse’s action from their breeze up videos. There is also a record of the time they are capable of running. You will probably pay more dollars for this information. The advantage of seeing a horse run should not be underestimated. Those who have been following my posts will know that I selected fourteen yearlings during the 2019-2020 sales period. These horses are now 3yo. Of the fourteen, all have been named, but only 6 have started in a race.  Of these, three have won and another placed. For the other eight, their 2yo career is over. Dreams of a Golden Slipper triumph evaporated. Of the one hundred and eighty-five 2yo on offer at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale I have looked for fast horses with PRI back up.

Dosage and Fast Horses

The Dosage system attempts to put a numerical analysis on the pedigree of a horse which is based on its Speed and Stamina. For those interested I would recommend Steve Roman’s book “Dosage Pedigree and Performance”. The data can be utilized in a number of ways. One choice is to establish a Dosage Index (DI) which is simply a measure of speed to stamina.  The Table shows the range of values for the DI for a number of races as well as for champion sprinters in Australia in the last ten years or so. The data can also be arranged to provide a value for Centre of Distribution (CD). This figure marks the balancing point of a pedigree between speed and stamina and it is displayed by a number between +2 and -2. A positive number shows speed outranks stamina and a negative number stamina out ranks speed. The Table below sets out some DI and CD values of relevance.

It is clear from the data that the range of values for speed horses, (2yo in the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond, and that of Champion Australian sprinters) show different dosage profiles from the horses that have won the Melbourne Cup and the UK St Leger.

Dosage Ratings of Horses at the Inglis Sale

I did not measure the DI and CD values of all the horses in the sale. I cut the list to those where there was a reasonable quantity of data available and selected three horses for comment. Lots 93.45 and 79 should have exceptional speed. In fact, lot 93 is more like a quarter horse. However, the low PRI score probably means it could run out of breath rather quickly. Lots 45 and 79 have strong PRI scores to back up their speed rating. It will be interesting to see how they go. Paper studies are useful but so is the real thing and to see that you need to look at the information provided at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale in October.

 

Longevity of a PRI Score

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The Longevity of a PRI Score

A PRI score will change with time, but what is the longevity of a PRI score? Any process that involves statistical methods is only as good as the information in a data base. This particularly true when the data is continually changing. Any method using a data base must be robust enough to accommodate these changes. A data base which involves racehorses is continually changing. Just consider the AEI (Average Earning Index). Every run a horse has will change its AEI value. Similarly, every time a horse wins a Stakes Race, the pedigree compatibility factors will also change. The change will be almost imperceptible for a cross such as Northern Dancer x Mr Prospector. But what about the lesser lights?

Up Dated Results

To test the robustness my analysis system I re-examined the data entered in my first post of 2.5 years ago (Yearling Prices and Racing Ability: the rewards are hard to find). The updated results are given in the table below:

*PRI Score measured Feb 2019

**PRI Score measured Aug 2012

***PRI Band/Medium AEI is from Flavone Private data base. For example, Honesty Prevails with a PRI score of 93.8 lies in the data base band of PRI scores 95-90 which have a medium AEI value of $110k.

Conclusions

Firstly, as a prelude I need to state that the examination of seven horses is hardly statistically significant, but my conclusions are backed up by a considerable amount of data I have accumulated in over 20 years researching the subject. Secondly, breeding and/or finding good horses is an inexact science with a bit of art thrown in. For example, within PRI bands there is considerable variation in AEI values. However, I would predict that more likely than not the AEI figure is close to what you would expect from a horse with PRI values within that band.

  1. The PRI values measured for these horses in 2019 have not changed dramatically from those measured in 2021. The longevity of a PRI score held up well.
  2. In their racing career all these horses failed to return anywhere near their purchase price.
  3. The link between PRI score and AEI is reasonable for these seven horses. What was predicted is reasonably close to what was achieved.
  4. A phone call to me in 2019 would have saved some people a lot of money!

 

The Breeding Season 2021

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The new breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere is underway. Most breeders have probably made their selection, but for those who haven’t read on. There are many books and web sources providing information on breeding thoroughbreds. I won’t expand on this here, but during the last few years I have covered a few breeding issues in my blogs. These issues are rarely canvassed by others but should be part of the selection mix.

Are Stallion Fees a Reliable Predictor of a Foal’s Prize-winning Potential?

This matter is covered in March 2021. The answer given by the scientific work of A J Wilson and A Rambaut (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) 173-175) is a definite no. You should not evaluate a stallion on his racetrack performance or that of his relations, but on its pedigree. Sometimes they are both good, but sometimes one is way ahead of the other. The real issue is how a stallion and mare’s pedigrees will fit together. These comments do not necessarily apply to those breeders whose aim is to make money using the formula best to the best and hope for the best. Someone will always pay big money for the progeny resulting from implementation of this plan.

Beware The Danehill Cross

A quote by John Boyce says it all “Top-Class racehorses inbred to Danehill have been conspicuous by their absence”. My limited investigation set out in August 2020, confirms this view.  Mares carrying Danehill or his son’s lines are now the preeminent pedigree lines in Australian mares. Crossing them to any Danehill line stallions requires a great deal of thought, investigation, and care. These Danehill problems spill over to some extent to the batch of Danehill family line stallions. In my view there are better options in the next breeding season for Danehill mares. The compatibility problems will decrease as the Danehill genes move to the right of the pedigree and become less important.

Don’t believe that Brothers and Sisters are the same

Octagonal: Mighty Racehorse, good Sire; full Brother Columbia only a good Sire

Quite often you hear or read that such and such is a good choice because its brother/sister was such a good horse. If such a conclusion is reached because of a deep pedigree analysis it may have come validity. However, I have already explained why full brothers are different and as for brother/sister? One is XY and the XX. How different can you get?

Be Philosophical about Disappointment

Finally, even with all the best preparation in the world, you must be prepared for disappointment.  Recently, never has there been a more striking example as this. Mount Fuji (Snitzel – Ichihara) was a $2.8m yearling. After a racing record of 4 starts and results of 0-1-1 $20,850 the horse sold at auction for $75,000. Why the fall from grace?

On my system it had a superb pedigree with a PRI score of 99.3. This puts it in multiple G1 status in my Library. No doubt all the pre-sale veterinary checks gave the yearling a clean bill of health. Which makes us look for things that are not easy if not impossible to measure. Every mammal has a biological, genetically controlled, clock. That’s why we age. But throughout life it can also regulate physiological factors such as arthritis, immune response, breathing controls and general health well-being.  There are also psychological factors at work. Perhaps he didn’t really want to be a racehorse? A herd animal, perhaps he didn’t want to be an Alpha?

Mount Fuji might now find his mark at the $75k level of competition. For the new owners I hope he does. For the old owners my commiserations. I would probably given you the same advice you followed. Remember there will soon be the results of the new breeding season to examine

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares ? (Part 5)

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The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.

Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)

Race Track Performance

Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.

Arcadia Queen-great race mare

Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)

This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.

Stallion Selection

Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.  I am Invincible is considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.

Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)

In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.

                                      Black Caviar Breeding History

According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case.  Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!

 

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part 3)

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale will conclude with the offer of 125 Broodmares. It takes much more time to assess a broodmare especially one in foal, than to assess a yearling. Two investigations are needed. First the mare must be assessed on her future capability to deliver a foal that will be a winner. Secondly the pedigree of foal she is carrying must be assessed relating it to the chance of it being a winner. We have carried out an evaluation of two mares lots 463 and 499; both in foal to Street Boss.

Lot 463 ch m Socialista (Served by Street Boss)

Socialista (New Approach – Ambitious Lady) scores 290 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is a way of measuring how her immediate family and herself rate in producing SW. In a sale like this the average MMI value is around 500. However, her 6GFI (six generation female index) is a stellar 22.1%.  The difference shows that the female family is a rich producer of SW but that Socialista is not in its strongest vein. Nevertheless, on balance, it is a very good female family.  Most of the success is due to the influence of Anna Paola, champion 2 and 3yo filly in Germany three generations back.

Mr Prospector: Sire of 67 SW and a dynasty

New Approach (Galileo – Park Express) a five times G1 winner  has recorded eight SW as broodmare sire. Two from Mr Prospector and two from Sunday Silence line stallions. Of the six previous mating of Socialista, only one was to a Mr Prospector line stallion (Street Boss) and it is her only winner.

The cross Street Boss x New Approach has already given a 2yo G3 winner. Heresy (Street Boss – Montsegur) scored over 1208m at her second and only start to date. The foal from Street Boss – Socialista has a PRI score of 91.9 which suggest a winner of high quality

Lot 499 g m Bugaboo (served by Street Boss)

Bugaboo (Mutakddim – Bavarian) scores 640 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is above average. The 6GFI is a healthy 15.8% although there are only 19 horses. Whether this is caused by some inherent fertility fault in the family I haven’t investigated but it is a fact to bear in mind.  Bugaboo has apparently completed 4 successful foalings which is good news. House Rules (Distorted Humor – Teamgeist) one of the three SW in the female line, was successful at G2 and G3 level in America. Her pedigree shows 3m x 4m to Mr Prospector.  It appears the females cross well with Mr Prospector sire lines and this bodes well for the foal from Street Boss x Bugaboo.

Street Boss: already the sire of 44 SW

In his role as a broodmare sire, Mutakddim has produced 20 SW. Eight (40%) have been from Mr Prospector line stallions. The cross Street Boss x Mutakddim has already given On the Back Streets (Street Boss – Mutakaway). This filly won two L races over 6.5f. The foal from Street Boss – Bugaboo) has a PRI score of 86.0 so it should be able to win.

The Great Southern Sale has some wonderful horses. I hope you are successful.

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part2)

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th – 5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have selected two weanlings of interest, Lots 82 and 208. In my next post (Part 3) I will address the pedigrees of two broodmares in foal, Lots 463 and 499. Firstly, a word about the two broad strategies of breeding racehorses – breeding to sell or race.

Breeding to sell

If you want to breed a horse to make money the strategy is very simple. Go and buy a G1 SW mare off the track and put her to a top stallion. Remember these mares are not cheap. Nor are service fees for top stallions. You don’t need to know much about horses or breeding-just plenty about money management and return on investment.  When put in a Sale as a yearling, buyers will pay big money for the progeny especially if it looks strong and healthy.  If you have followed my posts, you will understand that this type of mating approach rarely produces a horse that will recover its purchase price in earnings. However, once the purchase has taken place that is no longer the breeder’s concern. From a buyer’s point of view there have been some catastrophic failures.

Eight Carat: Super broodmare of five G1 winners

If the breeder is very lucky, he could purchase a mare who turns out to be a great producer. There aren’t too many of these around

  • Helsinge’s (Black Caviar, All Too Hard)
  • Eight Carat (Diamond Lover, Kaapstad, Marquise, Mouawad, Octagonal)
  • Urban Sea (Melika, Galileo, My Typhoon, Sea the Stars)

Breeding to Race

If, however you want to breed a horse that will win races you need to examine the pedigree of the mare and consider access to a stallion with compatible blood lines.  This should be done before purchase. Good planning will considerably improve your chance of success. Things to look for in the mare are the strength of the pedigree, history of racetrack performance of the mare and her immediate family, and breeding performance if any. Any genetic problems that may be passed to the offspring should also be looked for.

When buying a mare, you should ask yourself why is this mare in foal?  Is it the result of a carefully crafted breeding plan? Or is it an opportunistic event where the seller hopes that a pregnant mare will sell for a higher price more than a barren one. The real cost of the offspring to you will be a minimum of $20,000 before the hammer falls at the auction. Will the sale recover this money?  Purchasing a mare in foal requires considerable investigation. You need to decide if the foal is either going to sell well if you take that option. Or the foal’s pedigree suggests it should be a winner. A PRI score will help you there.

To provide additional information to answer the question is the pregnancy an opportunistic event we can look at the covering sires in the Inglis Great Southern Sale. There are 47 sires and 29 of them have never sired a SW.  Eight have sired less than 10 SW.  It can be said that only 10 stallions are established sires. You can draw your own conclusions.

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2021 (Part 1 )

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th -5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have organized my deliberations into two parts.

Inglis Southern Sale Part 1 Weanlings

Purchasing a weanling has the advantage that the horse is obviously older than a yearling and looks more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. The disadvantage is that you will usually pay more for it.  There are two weanlings in this Sale that appeal to me on analysis of their pedigrees. I consider they are worth looking at to assess their physical characteristics before considering a purchase.

Lot 82 b f Toronado – Morwell

Toronado (High Chaparral – Wana Doo) was anointed joint 3yo world champion colt with a record of 2xG1, G2, G3, L). He is off to a good start as a sire with 14 SW to date and a strike rate of SW/R of 3.76%.

Royal Academy: an incredible 155 SW as broodmare sire

Morwell (Royal Academy – Marwell Lady) wasn’t hopeless on the racetrack. Although she did not win, she had four starts for three seconds. Her female line with a 6GFI of 6.5 is encouraging. The most accomplished horse in this line was Stage Hit (Century – Oh Calcutta) who won 2xG1 and 2xG2. If I remember right, she was trained by Bart Cummings when she won the Edward Manifold Stakes.

The cross Toronado x Royal Academy has already produced the L stakes winner. Laverrod (Toronado –Demasheen). This horse won the Hareeba Stakes (1208m). A PRI score of 85.8 tells us that she has a pedigree to win in the city.

Lot 208 b c Iffraaj – The Kipling Girl

Iffraaj (Zafonic – Pastorale) was essentially a sprinter on the racetrack. He was first in three G2 races over 7f, and second in the G1 July Cup. The is the preeminent race for sprinters in the UK. At stud his sire line has produced 89 SW with a SW/R score of 5.49%. For comparison Redoute’s Choice has a SW/R ratio of 4.60%.   Some of Iffraaj’s progenies have won beyond sprint distances. Gingernuts (Iffraaj – Double Elle) won both the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and NZ Derby (2400m), at G1 level.

Iffraaj: sire of both sprinters and stayers

The Kipling Girl (High Chaparral – Mrs Kipling) comes from a strong female family. Her 6GFI is 11.3. She was successful on the race track.

The cross Iffraaj x High Chaparral has produced a G1 winner Wynspelle (Iffraaj – Western Star), winner of the prestigious Captain Cook Stakes (1610m). The pedigree is bristling with SW. Of the first 14 horses in this colt’s pedigree, 9 are SW.A PRI score of 89.2 puts this horse in the winner’s category

The Inglis Great Southern Sale may be delayed but if you are buying or selling horses its worth your attendance

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

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MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sales

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale has 615 yearlings to go under the hammer. Like most sales there is plenty of untested sires and a few that have more than proved their mettle. For those who have followed my suggestions you will note that I like More than Ready as a broodmare sire. He is currently leading the Australian Broodmare sires list with a w/r ratio of 47.2. Don’t get confused with sires listed by stake money won. In the  days of mega prize money on a few select races these lists are pretty meaningless. Overall, he has a SW/R ratio of 4.95%. When matched to All Too Hard it climbs to 6.98%. All Too Hard has steadily improved his ranking to reach number 4 (by w/r). The cross All Too Hard to More Than Ready is worth following up. It has already produced three SW

• Forbidden Love (All Too Hard – Juliet’s Princess) G1 Surround Stakes,
• Wellington (All Too Hard – Mihiri) G1 Chairman’s Surprise Sprint in Hong Kong,
• Outrageous (All Too Hard – Fit and Ready) G3 over 1509m.

All Too Hard Sire and Broodmare Sire More Than Ready

There are four horses available in that category in the Sale. All are worth considering

Lot 1456 b f All Too Hard – More Graceful
More Graceful won one race in five starts. Lot 1456 has a PRI Score is 97.1 and a 6GFI 7.45. She is essentially an outcross but shares an inbreeding to the brother and sister combination Northern Dancer-Spring Adieu (4m x 4f). Danehill 3f x 4m remains a concern for me but it hasn’t affected the PRI score unduly

Lot 1575 b or br c All Too Hard – Spice Temple.
Although unraced the mare has shown she can throw winners. Lot 1575 has a PRI Score of 95.4 and his female line 6GFI is 9.87. In this line there are two VRC Derby winners; Redding and Nothin’ Leica Dane.

Lot 1785 b f All Too Hard – Gigi Girl
Three wins over a bit of distance points to All Too Hard being a useful match. The filly has a PRI score of 96.7 with a 6GFI of 12.71. This figure is up with the best. Not surprising when you list some of her ancestors. Apart from those named in the catalogue you can add Benicio, Romneya, and Ortensia.

Lot 2016 b or br c All Too Hard – Just for Naara                                                    Mare unraced but has produced a good winner. The colt has a PRI Score of 86.3 and a female line 6GFI 6.67. There a bit of explanation needed here. This is a very fertile female line. There are 599 descendants and good horses are rather rare in most of the pedigree. However, around Ciboulette and her daughter Franfreluche by Northern Dancer, sparks begin to fly. Frafreluche became US Champion 3yo filly of the Year. From her line came Grand Luxe, Krupt, Flying Spur, Encosta De Lago, and a host of others. Just for Naara is in the thick of these.

                      Exceed and Excel Super Sire

Lot 1422 b c Exceed and Excel – Looking for Love

Exceed and Excel is a worldwide power with his sire line producing 216 SW with a SW/R of 4.23%. He is regarded as primarily a sire of sprinters. However, in his top ten hoses of his sire line there is a scattering of SW victories over 1800 or longer. In fact, his best horse Barney Roy (Excelebration – Alina) won at G1 In Germany over 2415m with three other G1 victories. Alina was by Galileo which suggest Exceed and Excel can pick up staying blood from the right mares. Lot 1442 has a PRI Score of 90.4 and a 6GFI of 7.18. The cross Exceed and Excel with Street Cry mares has produced two SW. September Run (G1 Coolmore Classic 1208m) and Promotions (L Canberra Guineas 1409m).

There will be plenty of good horses sold at the Gold Coast National Yearling sale so good luck. I will be there too.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 3 )

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MM Sale Part 3 Racefillies

The sale of racefillies is an important part of this MM Sale Series.  It may well be that the broodmare of your choice has been served by a stallion you are not comfortable with. Another reason may be the perceived increased price of the mare or perhaps the pedigree of the future foal indicates that it is a poor match. I covered this in my last post. You have another option. Purchasing a race filly where you can select a stallion of your choice. Where do you start? I suggest you look at the broodmare statistics for W/R (winners /runners) . Ignore any statistics based on prize money. Since NSW created these huge purse races this data is of little use.

Savabeel (Zabeel – Savannah Success) 

Savabeel making his mark as a broodmare sire

The son of Zabeel  is currently second on the list of broodmare sires on the basis on a W/R of 39.2%.. He is the broodmare sire of 13 SW including the G1 winner of this year’s Goodwood Handicap  Saxatoxl (Kuroshio –  Li’l Miss Hayley). There are five racefillies for sale in the MM catalogue: Lots 526,574, 575, 615,and 671. Of these fillies Lot 526 Missybeel (Savabeel – Sitting Pretty) has the highest MMI score of  450.Her 6GFI is 7.69. suggesting the female line is reasonably strong. Keeper (Danehill – Nuwirah) also a winner of the Goodwood Handicap is part of the family.

Stallion Selection 

We have examined Missybeel and decided she meets our criteria of what a good broodmare should be. The next step is to examine her pedigree to assess what bloodlines are a suitable match. My homework says look at stallions down the Green Desert line ( Danzig – Foreign Courier). Thirty percent  of Savabeel’s SW as a broodmare sire are from this line of stallions.

Fascino>Charm Spirit>Invincible Spirit> Green Desert

Free of Will>Power>Oasis Dream>Green Desert 

Cloud Surfing>Oasis Dream>Green Desert

Stella De Paco>Paco Boy> Desert Style>Green Desert

And there are plenty around. Seven at the last count and growing.

Using the new sire Magna Grecia (Invincible Spirit – Cabaret) as a  test I calculated a PRI score for the cross Magna Grecia – Missybeel of 73.3 which is very high considering the sire has no SW at present. I also did Lot 575 (Shimmer Lake : Savabeel – Grey Swallow ) with Magna Grecia for a PRI score of 68.6.  So I believe using the Green Desert connection puts you  on the right track.

The sale of racefillies is always exciting and the MM is the place to be.