MM Yearling Sales Catalogue 2022 (Part 1)

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The yearling sales are about to commence. The MM Catalogue 2022 for January 11-17, is now available. I have attended the last fifteen or so and it is a wonderful experience. There are plenty of well bred horses on offer, and if you are in the market you just need to be able to pick the right one. This year I describe two that I believe will be successful racehorses. In support of my methodology I can report on the performance of the one yearling l selected from the MM 2020 series.  Lot 209 (Snitzel – Crystal Flute), now a 3yo, is racing in NZ under the name Meritable.  His record is 5 Starts 1-3-0 which includes seconds in a G1 and G2. I have applied similar methods to the yearlings selected in MM Yearling Catalogue 2022.

Street Boss

A winner of 2xG1 he goes from strength to strength as a versatile sire. Already with 58 SW, evenly spread between male and female offspring. Street Boss has SW/r of 5.57%.

Street Boss: siring winners everywhere

His female line has a whopping 6GFI of 18.3% and Almanzor (who also has yearlings in this sale) appears here. His G1 winners are spread geographically, by racing distance(1200-2000m) and surface (turf and dirt).  Amanoe, who ran a gallant second in last year’s Cox Plate is his most successful horse.

Lot 79 (Street Boss – Glory’s Girl, by Exceed & Excel)

This cross has already produced four SW with Elite Street (G1, 2xG2, 1XL) the winner of the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth being the most successful. The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with Exceed and Excel mares is a healthy 14.29% . Glory’s Girl comes from a strong female line with 6GFI of 9.30. The colt from this mating has a PRI score of 95.0.This all points to a very capable horse.

Lot 613 (Street Boss – Tennessee Gold, by Lonhro)

Lonhro: 26 wins from 35 starts, a real champion

This cross has produced a SW from two only runners. Arcaded (G2, G3) won the Blue Diamond Prelude (1107m). The SW/r for Street Boss crossed with  Lonhro mares is 50%, admittedly with little data. Tennessee Gold has a female line with 6GFI of 8.67. Allez Wonder (Toorak Handicap winner) and the Melbourne Cup winner Rainbird are part of this line and if her genes flow through, this filly is classic material. Her PRI score of 91.5 lends support to this view.

 

Almond Eye and Winx

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Almond Eye and Winx. What a contest that would have been! Now the Cox Plate is over for another year it brings back the memories of Winx’s efforts in winning four straight. Her heroics have somewhat overshadowed those of another mare Almond Eye. The careers of these two great mares did indeed overlap; Winx (2013-2019) and Almond Eye  (2018 -2020). Unfortunately, they never met in a race.but on paper there was an opportunity. In the year of the 2018 Cox Plate won by Winx and the 2018 Japan Cup won by Almond Eye. It is interesting to review the highlights of their careers.

Almond Eye

Almond Eye has a superb pedigree. Her sire, Lord Kanaloa was an outstanding sprinter-miler (13 wins and 6 placings from 19 starts). His most notable achievement was back to back wins in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint (1200m). He was Japan’s Horse of the Year in 2013. From the perspective of her dam’s side Almond Eye is probably even more impressive. Her dam,Fusaichi Pandora was the winner of two G1 which included the prestigious Queen Elizabeth II Commemoration Cup (2200m). Her dam was Lotta Lace (Buckpasser – Sex Appeal) which puts her in elite company as a member of the Best in Show family along  with El Gran Senor, Xaar, Rags to Riches, and Redoute’s Choice among others.

Almond Eye: two Japan Cups and a world record for 2400m

The racing career of Almond Eye began modestly enough with a second followed by a win at her first two starts. In 2018 as a 3yo, the glory days took off. First she completed the Japanese fillies triple crown, only the fifth horse to do so. Her form was so impressive that she was installed as favorite for the Japan Cup of that year. Not only did she win but she ran the 2400m in 2.20.6 which broke the race record by 1.5 seconds and was a world record for the distance.  The Australian record is 2.25.2 which has stood for 20 years.

The following year 2019, Almond Eye had her first start in the Middle East where she won The Dubai World Championship. She was expected to travel on to France for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe but injury prevented her making the trip. She resumed racing in the autumn of 2020 and victories continued. When she claimed her 8th G1 win she became the first horse to win 8 G1 races in Japan.  The stage was set for her attempt to win her second Japan Cup. Kiseki set up  a huge lead at the head of a strong International field, but Almond Eye was able to run him down  in what was her final race. She awarded to title of World Champion Horse for 2020.

Winx

The strength of Winx’s pedigree is through her sire Street Cry. An excellent racehorse, a dual G1 winner, and in twelve starts never unplaced.. But as a sire of champions he really excelled. In addition to Winx, Street Cry is the sire of Zenyatta. This mare had 19 straight victories and just failed in her last race when she finished second trying for a second victory in the Breeders Cup Classic. Winx’s female line is not strong with a 6GFI through her dam Vegas Showgirl of only 1.47%. In contrast, Almond Eye has a female line of 9.88%. it will be interesting to see how good the progeny of these mares will turn out to be.

Winx: four Cox Plates and 33 consecutive wins

Like Almond Eye, Winx had a racing career which began low key being successful as a 2yo but winning only one race in her next seven starts. However, a win in the G1 Queensland Oaks coming from way back in the field made racegoers take notice. Resuming her race career as a 4yo she amassed 33 straight victories. Among them four Cox Plates and both the prestigious mile handicaps in Sydney (Epsom and Doncaster). Winx was invincible in Australia and was anointed Australian Horses of the year four years in succession 2015-2018.

Too bad Almond Eye and Winx never met on the race track. The clash of these two great mares would have been an event worth going miles to see.

 

Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

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Breeder’s Cup World Championship 2021

The Breeders Cup World Championship have just been completed at Del Mar in California. Fastnet Rock (Danehill – Piccadilly Circus ) was an Aussie with a presence and he did us proud. The Spring Carnivals in Melbourne and Sydney are not truly World Championships. You need the best in the world competing. These horses were in Del Mar. The Melbourne Cup is the only local race that attracts sufficient world interest of horses, trainers, jockeys  and the general public. This is a fact.  It doesn’t matter what the well oiled PR machines might say. It is also irrelevant to how much money is thrown at the various races.

The races at Del Mar attracted the best in America, Europe and Japan. Dermott Wells was there; Aiden O’Brien with a big string of horses and Godolphin in force. Unfortunately, John Gosden was unable to bring Mishriff (French Derby winner,3xG1 this year and arguably the world’s best horse) for the Breeders Cup Classic or Turf. He was early favorite for the race.

Fastnet Rock Waves the Aussie Flag

Australia had a significant representation in the World Championship Juvenile (2yo) Fillies race on Turf. Pizza Bianca ( Fastnet Rock – White Hot) was coming off a second in the

Fastnet Rock : fast Racehorse Super Sire and now Broodmare Sire

G1 Natalma Stakes following up her win in a Maiden at her first start. After starting the race well, the filly dropped back and was last coming into the straight. The jockey (Jose Ortiz Jr ) and Pizza Bianca formed a masterful  combination as they weaved their way past and through the entire field  to win going away. Her breeder/owner Celebrity Chef Bobby Flay praised the efforts of his trainer Christolphe Clemete with his first win in the Breeder’s Cup after 40 attempts.  Pizza Bianca is superbly bred. Her dam White Hot never raced but she is a daughter of Gwynn the dam of the 2011 Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi (Montjeu – Gwynn ).

Australia’s other interest in the race was the previously unbeaten Koala Princess (More than Ready- Koala Queen by Lonhro). Sent out the favorite in the race but caught wide and finished 21/4 lengths from the winner.

Seeing the horses competing in the Breeder’s Cup World Championship was great viewing.

 

 

Breeding Strategy

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Should a breeder persevere with a breeding strategy based on pedigree analysis or chop and change to meet the current fashion? The latter is perused by many who want to make money at auction and it is very successful. But does it produce champion racehorses? The breeding season is well underway but perhaps it is not too late to put down an  observation from my current work. I must confess my clients in Japan and America are much more interested in breeding a champion than getting a quick buck at a yearling sale. I have been examining elements of the Best in Show broodmare line and it is a fascinating tale. There is no doubt Best in Show initiated the most successful female line in the last 50 years and it continues. Volumes could be written about the exploits of her family but space restricts me to an example.

Best in Show

There is nothing outstanding in the Best in Show pedigree. Her sire Traffic Judge was a good racehorse winning 2G1 ,2G2, 1G3, and was a moderately successful sire with five SW in 172 progeny. Her dam Stolen Hour was not a SW; 6 wins in 38 starts shows talent and soundness. In fact in the female tail line there is no SW back as far as 1728! However, on the female side of the pedigree there are two powerful genetic influences, War Admiral and La Troienne.; But these are present in other female lines that didn’t start a dynasty. There is just something special about Best in Show. She was sold for $25,000 at the 1966 Keenland sales.  A useful race horse winning $53,880 in 27 Starts; 5 wins, three seconds, and four thirds. Among her victories was the G3 Comely Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile.

Best in Show Breeding Career

Her sixteen offspring included four SW (two  fillies, Blush with Pride and Monroe, and two Colts Gielgud and Malinowski ). Best in Show’s  greatness came from these and all her other fillies who were not SW.. The difference between Best in Show and other female lines is that they may experienced their fifteen minutes of fame but this did not extend to all the racing jurisdictions of the world. In addition they may have produced SW but not absolute champion horses which excelled on the track and in the breeding barn. We should notice that the Best in Show line has 14 horses that weren’t SW but they were still powerful performers. One of her fillies Sex Appeal by Buckpasser,  illustrates this      .

I know something about her as my horse Nishiazabu was inbred 4m x4f to Sex Appeal. This horse was a stayer who won Australia’s longest flat race (3600m) and subsequently a Horse of the Year nomination. Sex Appeal was unraced but she inherited the genes to make champions. So a breeding strategy .based on looking closely at the female pedigree won’t go astray. So you don’t necessarily need a SW. What you need is a sound breeding strategy based on pedigree and to persevere with it..

Inglis Ready to Race Sale October 2021

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The catalogue for the Inglis Ready to Race October 2021 is now available. Ready to race sales have advantages over conventional yearling sales. The horses are broken in, fit to race and prospective buyers can see the horse’s action from their breeze up videos. There is also a record of the time they are capable of running. You will probably pay more dollars for this information. The advantage of seeing a horse run should not be underestimated. Those who have been following my posts will know that I selected fourteen yearlings during the 2019-2020 sales period. These horses are now 3yo. Of the fourteen, all have been named, but only 6 have started in a race.  Of these, three have won and another placed. For the other eight, their 2yo career is over. Dreams of a Golden Slipper triumph evaporated. Of the one hundred and eighty-five 2yo on offer at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale I have looked for fast horses with PRI back up.

Dosage and Fast Horses

The Dosage system attempts to put a numerical analysis on the pedigree of a horse which is based on its Speed and Stamina. For those interested I would recommend Steve Roman’s book “Dosage Pedigree and Performance”. The data can be utilized in a number of ways. One choice is to establish a Dosage Index (DI) which is simply a measure of speed to stamina.  The Table shows the range of values for the DI for a number of races as well as for champion sprinters in Australia in the last ten years or so. The data can also be arranged to provide a value for Centre of Distribution (CD). This figure marks the balancing point of a pedigree between speed and stamina and it is displayed by a number between +2 and -2. A positive number shows speed outranks stamina and a negative number stamina out ranks speed. The Table below sets out some DI and CD values of relevance.

It is clear from the data that the range of values for speed horses, (2yo in the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond, and that of Champion Australian sprinters) show different dosage profiles from the horses that have won the Melbourne Cup and the UK St Leger.

Dosage Ratings of Horses at the Inglis Sale

I did not measure the DI and CD values of all the horses in the sale. I cut the list to those where there was a reasonable quantity of data available and selected three horses for comment. Lots 93.45 and 79 should have exceptional speed. In fact, lot 93 is more like a quarter horse. However, the low PRI score probably means it could run out of breath rather quickly. Lots 45 and 79 have strong PRI scores to back up their speed rating. It will be interesting to see how they go. Paper studies are useful but so is the real thing and to see that you need to look at the information provided at the Inglis Ready to Race Sale in October.

 

Longevity of a PRI Score

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The Longevity of a PRI Score

A PRI score will change with time, but what is the longevity of a PRI score? Any process that involves statistical methods is only as good as the information in a data base. This particularly true when the data is continually changing. Any method using a data base must be robust enough to accommodate these changes. A data base which involves racehorses is continually changing. Just consider the AEI (Average Earning Index). Every run a horse has will change its AEI value. Similarly, every time a horse wins a Stakes Race, the pedigree compatibility factors will also change. The change will be almost imperceptible for a cross such as Northern Dancer x Mr Prospector. But what about the lesser lights?

Up Dated Results

To test the robustness my analysis system I re-examined the data entered in my first post of 2.5 years ago (Yearling Prices and Racing Ability: the rewards are hard to find). The updated results are given in the table below:

*PRI Score measured Feb 2019

**PRI Score measured Aug 2012

***PRI Band/Medium AEI is from Flavone Private data base. For example, Honesty Prevails with a PRI score of 93.8 lies in the data base band of PRI scores 95-90 which have a medium AEI value of $110k.

Conclusions

Firstly, as a prelude I need to state that the examination of seven horses is hardly statistically significant, but my conclusions are backed up by a considerable amount of data I have accumulated in over 20 years researching the subject. Secondly, breeding and/or finding good horses is an inexact science with a bit of art thrown in. For example, within PRI bands there is considerable variation in AEI values. However, I would predict that more likely than not the AEI figure is close to what you would expect from a horse with PRI values within that band.

  1. The PRI values measured for these horses in 2019 have not changed dramatically from those measured in 2021. The longevity of a PRI score held up well.
  2. In their racing career all these horses failed to return anywhere near their purchase price.
  3. The link between PRI score and AEI is reasonable for these seven horses. What was predicted is reasonably close to what was achieved.
  4. A phone call to me in 2019 would have saved some people a lot of money!

 

The Breeding Season 2021

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The new breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere is underway. Most breeders have probably made their selection, but for those who haven’t read on. There are many books and web sources providing information on breeding thoroughbreds. I won’t expand on this here, but during the last few years I have covered a few breeding issues in my blogs. These issues are rarely canvassed by others but should be part of the selection mix.

Are Stallion Fees a Reliable Predictor of a Foal’s Prize-winning Potential?

This matter is covered in March 2021. The answer given by the scientific work of A J Wilson and A Rambaut (Biol Lett 2008, April 23 4(2) 173-175) is a definite no. You should not evaluate a stallion on his racetrack performance or that of his relations, but on its pedigree. Sometimes they are both good, but sometimes one is way ahead of the other. The real issue is how a stallion and mare’s pedigrees will fit together. These comments do not necessarily apply to those breeders whose aim is to make money using the formula best to the best and hope for the best. Someone will always pay big money for the progeny resulting from implementation of this plan.

Beware The Danehill Cross

A quote by John Boyce says it all “Top-Class racehorses inbred to Danehill have been conspicuous by their absence”. My limited investigation set out in August 2020, confirms this view.  Mares carrying Danehill or his son’s lines are now the preeminent pedigree lines in Australian mares. Crossing them to any Danehill line stallions requires a great deal of thought, investigation, and care. These Danehill problems spill over to some extent to the batch of Danehill family line stallions. In my view there are better options in the next breeding season for Danehill mares. The compatibility problems will decrease as the Danehill genes move to the right of the pedigree and become less important.

Don’t believe that Brothers and Sisters are the same

Octagonal: Mighty Racehorse, good Sire; full Brother Columbia only a good Sire

Quite often you hear or read that such and such is a good choice because its brother/sister was such a good horse. If such a conclusion is reached because of a deep pedigree analysis it may have come validity. However, I have already explained why full brothers are different and as for brother/sister? One is XY and the XX. How different can you get?

Be Philosophical about Disappointment

Finally, even with all the best preparation in the world, you must be prepared for disappointment.  Recently, never has there been a more striking example as this. Mount Fuji (Snitzel – Ichihara) was a $2.8m yearling. After a racing record of 4 starts and results of 0-1-1 $20,850 the horse sold at auction for $75,000. Why the fall from grace?

On my system it had a superb pedigree with a PRI score of 99.3. This puts it in multiple G1 status in my Library. No doubt all the pre-sale veterinary checks gave the yearling a clean bill of health. Which makes us look for things that are not easy if not impossible to measure. Every mammal has a biological, genetically controlled, clock. That’s why we age. But throughout life it can also regulate physiological factors such as arthritis, immune response, breathing controls and general health well-being.  There are also psychological factors at work. Perhaps he didn’t really want to be a racehorse? A herd animal, perhaps he didn’t want to be an Alpha?

Mount Fuji might now find his mark at the $75k level of competition. For the new owners I hope he does. For the old owners my commiserations. I would probably given you the same advice you followed. Remember there will soon be the results of the new breeding season to examine

Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Broodmares ? (Part 5)

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The performance of great race mares as brood mares is always an interesting topic for conversation.that Can a mare with exceptional race performances translate that to her foals? The question always comes up when a great race mare is put up for auction at the conclusion of her racing career. Such is the case for Arcadia Queen. It is reported that the mare was purchased by Arrowfield Stud for $3.2m. On balance I would say the purchase was worth it, but let’s look at some data.

Arcadia Queen b m (Pierro – Arcadia)

Race Track Performance

Arcadia Queen had sixteen starts for 8 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds for stakes of $3.99m. She won three G1 races which included the MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington. Any horse that wins that race at odds of 5/2 is a substantial race horse.

Arcadia Queen-great race mare

Six Generation Female Index (6GFI)

This measures at 10.0% which means that one out of ten horses in the female line is a SW. Close up in the pedigree we have both a Derby winner (Arcadia Dream) and a winner of the Oakleigh Plate Keltrice). This shows the “versatility “of the pedigree and gives breeders plenty to work with.. The mare Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice – Antique) is the dam of four SW. These factors suggests that Arcadia Queen could be a success at stud.

Stallion Selection

Pierro has plenty of broodmare daughters. however, their progeny are too young to have been tried on a race track. Hence, he is an unknown quantity as a broodmare sire. The recent family led by Arcadia have been successful with Pierro> Lonhro> Octagonal; Domesday>Red Ransom>Roberto; and Kheleyf>Green Desert>Danzig. Obviously this is the place to start.  I am Invincible is considered a possible choice. In my analysis, the progeny would have a PRI score of 66.3 giving an AEI of $6k. This is not the stuff of Champions and suggest the pot of gold looks to be elsewhere. Perhaps there is a lesson in what follows.

Black Caviar: The Great Race Mare Breeding Curse (Up dated)

In August 2020 I posted part 3 of the series “Do Champion Race Mares make Champion Brood Mares?” The mare we discussed was Black Caviar and the updated story is told in the following Table.

                                      Black Caviar Breeding History

According to my calculations, Written Tycoon is the hope of the team in this case.  Another chapter in the performance of great race mares as brood mares will be written. Good Luck!

 

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part 3)

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale will conclude with the offer of 125 Broodmares. It takes much more time to assess a broodmare especially one in foal, than to assess a yearling. Two investigations are needed. First the mare must be assessed on her future capability to deliver a foal that will be a winner. Secondly the pedigree of foal she is carrying must be assessed relating it to the chance of it being a winner. We have carried out an evaluation of two mares lots 463 and 499; both in foal to Street Boss.

Lot 463 ch m Socialista (Served by Street Boss)

Socialista (New Approach – Ambitious Lady) scores 290 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is a way of measuring how her immediate family and herself rate in producing SW. In a sale like this the average MMI value is around 500. However, her 6GFI (six generation female index) is a stellar 22.1%.  The difference shows that the female family is a rich producer of SW but that Socialista is not in its strongest vein. Nevertheless, on balance, it is a very good female family.  Most of the success is due to the influence of Anna Paola, champion 2 and 3yo filly in Germany three generations back.

Mr Prospector: Sire of 67 SW and a dynasty

New Approach (Galileo – Park Express) a five times G1 winner  has recorded eight SW as broodmare sire. Two from Mr Prospector and two from Sunday Silence line stallions. Of the six previous mating of Socialista, only one was to a Mr Prospector line stallion (Street Boss) and it is her only winner.

The cross Street Boss x New Approach has already given a 2yo G3 winner. Heresy (Street Boss – Montsegur) scored over 1208m at her second and only start to date. The foal from Street Boss – Socialista has a PRI score of 91.9 which suggest a winner of high quality

Lot 499 g m Bugaboo (served by Street Boss)

Bugaboo (Mutakddim – Bavarian) scores 640 on the Mares Mating Index (MMI) which is above average. The 6GFI is a healthy 15.8% although there are only 19 horses. Whether this is caused by some inherent fertility fault in the family I haven’t investigated but it is a fact to bear in mind.  Bugaboo has apparently completed 4 successful foalings which is good news. House Rules (Distorted Humor – Teamgeist) one of the three SW in the female line, was successful at G2 and G3 level in America. Her pedigree shows 3m x 4m to Mr Prospector.  It appears the females cross well with Mr Prospector sire lines and this bodes well for the foal from Street Boss x Bugaboo.

Street Boss: already the sire of 44 SW

In his role as a broodmare sire, Mutakddim has produced 20 SW. Eight (40%) have been from Mr Prospector line stallions. The cross Street Boss x Mutakddim has already given On the Back Streets (Street Boss – Mutakaway). This filly won two L races over 6.5f. The foal from Street Boss – Bugaboo) has a PRI score of 86.0 so it should be able to win.

The Great Southern Sale has some wonderful horses. I hope you are successful.

Inglis Great Southern Sale (Part2)

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th – 5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have selected two weanlings of interest, Lots 82 and 208. In my next post (Part 3) I will address the pedigrees of two broodmares in foal, Lots 463 and 499. Firstly, a word about the two broad strategies of breeding racehorses – breeding to sell or race.

Breeding to sell

If you want to breed a horse to make money the strategy is very simple. Go and buy a G1 SW mare off the track and put her to a top stallion. Remember these mares are not cheap. Nor are service fees for top stallions. You don’t need to know much about horses or breeding-just plenty about money management and return on investment.  When put in a Sale as a yearling, buyers will pay big money for the progeny especially if it looks strong and healthy.  If you have followed my posts, you will understand that this type of mating approach rarely produces a horse that will recover its purchase price in earnings. However, once the purchase has taken place that is no longer the breeder’s concern. From a buyer’s point of view there have been some catastrophic failures.

Eight Carat: Super broodmare of five G1 winners

If the breeder is very lucky, he could purchase a mare who turns out to be a great producer. There aren’t too many of these around

  • Helsinge’s (Black Caviar, All Too Hard)
  • Eight Carat (Diamond Lover, Kaapstad, Marquise, Mouawad, Octagonal)
  • Urban Sea (Melika, Galileo, My Typhoon, Sea the Stars)

Breeding to Race

If, however you want to breed a horse that will win races you need to examine the pedigree of the mare and consider access to a stallion with compatible blood lines.  This should be done before purchase. Good planning will considerably improve your chance of success. Things to look for in the mare are the strength of the pedigree, history of racetrack performance of the mare and her immediate family, and breeding performance if any. Any genetic problems that may be passed to the offspring should also be looked for.

When buying a mare, you should ask yourself why is this mare in foal?  Is it the result of a carefully crafted breeding plan? Or is it an opportunistic event where the seller hopes that a pregnant mare will sell for a higher price more than a barren one. The real cost of the offspring to you will be a minimum of $20,000 before the hammer falls at the auction. Will the sale recover this money?  Purchasing a mare in foal requires considerable investigation. You need to decide if the foal is either going to sell well if you take that option. Or the foal’s pedigree suggests it should be a winner. A PRI score will help you there.

To provide additional information to answer the question is the pregnancy an opportunistic event we can look at the covering sires in the Inglis Great Southern Sale. There are 47 sires and 29 of them have never sired a SW.  Eight have sired less than 10 SW.  It can be said that only 10 stallions are established sires. You can draw your own conclusions.

Inglis Great Southern Sale 2021 (Part 1 )

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The Inglis Great Southern Sale has been moved to July 4th -5th because of the Covis situation in Victoria. This will give buyers and sellers more time to scan the catalogue. I have organized my deliberations into two parts.

Inglis Southern Sale Part 1 Weanlings

Purchasing a weanling has the advantage that the horse is obviously older than a yearling and looks more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. The disadvantage is that you will usually pay more for it.  There are two weanlings in this Sale that appeal to me on analysis of their pedigrees. I consider they are worth looking at to assess their physical characteristics before considering a purchase.

Lot 82 b f Toronado – Morwell

Toronado (High Chaparral – Wana Doo) was anointed joint 3yo world champion colt with a record of 2xG1, G2, G3, L). He is off to a good start as a sire with 14 SW to date and a strike rate of SW/R of 3.76%.

Royal Academy: an incredible 155 SW as broodmare sire

Morwell (Royal Academy – Marwell Lady) wasn’t hopeless on the racetrack. Although she did not win, she had four starts for three seconds. Her female line with a 6GFI of 6.5 is encouraging. The most accomplished horse in this line was Stage Hit (Century – Oh Calcutta) who won 2xG1 and 2xG2. If I remember right, she was trained by Bart Cummings when she won the Edward Manifold Stakes.

The cross Toronado x Royal Academy has already produced the L stakes winner. Laverrod (Toronado –Demasheen). This horse won the Hareeba Stakes (1208m). A PRI score of 85.8 tells us that she has a pedigree to win in the city.

Lot 208 b c Iffraaj – The Kipling Girl

Iffraaj (Zafonic – Pastorale) was essentially a sprinter on the racetrack. He was first in three G2 races over 7f, and second in the G1 July Cup. The is the preeminent race for sprinters in the UK. At stud his sire line has produced 89 SW with a SW/R score of 5.49%. For comparison Redoute’s Choice has a SW/R ratio of 4.60%.   Some of Iffraaj’s progenies have won beyond sprint distances. Gingernuts (Iffraaj – Double Elle) won both the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and NZ Derby (2400m), at G1 level.

Iffraaj: sire of both sprinters and stayers

The Kipling Girl (High Chaparral – Mrs Kipling) comes from a strong female family. Her 6GFI is 11.3. She was successful on the race track.

The cross Iffraaj x High Chaparral has produced a G1 winner Wynspelle (Iffraaj – Western Star), winner of the prestigious Captain Cook Stakes (1610m). The pedigree is bristling with SW. Of the first 14 horses in this colt’s pedigree, 9 are SW.A PRI score of 89.2 puts this horse in the winner’s category

The Inglis Great Southern Sale may be delayed but if you are buying or selling horses its worth your attendance

Gold Coast National Yearling Sale

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MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sales

The Gold Coast National Yearling Sale has 615 yearlings to go under the hammer. Like most sales there is plenty of untested sires and a few that have more than proved their mettle. For those who have followed my suggestions you will note that I like More than Ready as a broodmare sire. He is currently leading the Australian Broodmare sires list with a w/r ratio of 47.2. Don’t get confused with sires listed by stake money won. In the  days of mega prize money on a few select races these lists are pretty meaningless. Overall, he has a SW/R ratio of 4.95%. When matched to All Too Hard it climbs to 6.98%. All Too Hard has steadily improved his ranking to reach number 4 (by w/r). The cross All Too Hard to More Than Ready is worth following up. It has already produced three SW

• Forbidden Love (All Too Hard – Juliet’s Princess) G1 Surround Stakes,
• Wellington (All Too Hard – Mihiri) G1 Chairman’s Surprise Sprint in Hong Kong,
• Outrageous (All Too Hard – Fit and Ready) G3 over 1509m.

All Too Hard Sire and Broodmare Sire More Than Ready

There are four horses available in that category in the Sale. All are worth considering

Lot 1456 b f All Too Hard – More Graceful
More Graceful won one race in five starts. Lot 1456 has a PRI Score is 97.1 and a 6GFI 7.45. She is essentially an outcross but shares an inbreeding to the brother and sister combination Northern Dancer-Spring Adieu (4m x 4f). Danehill 3f x 4m remains a concern for me but it hasn’t affected the PRI score unduly

Lot 1575 b or br c All Too Hard – Spice Temple.
Although unraced the mare has shown she can throw winners. Lot 1575 has a PRI Score of 95.4 and his female line 6GFI is 9.87. In this line there are two VRC Derby winners; Redding and Nothin’ Leica Dane.

Lot 1785 b f All Too Hard – Gigi Girl
Three wins over a bit of distance points to All Too Hard being a useful match. The filly has a PRI score of 96.7 with a 6GFI of 12.71. This figure is up with the best. Not surprising when you list some of her ancestors. Apart from those named in the catalogue you can add Benicio, Romneya, and Ortensia.

Lot 2016 b or br c All Too Hard – Just for Naara                                                    Mare unraced but has produced a good winner. The colt has a PRI Score of 86.3 and a female line 6GFI 6.67. There a bit of explanation needed here. This is a very fertile female line. There are 599 descendants and good horses are rather rare in most of the pedigree. However, around Ciboulette and her daughter Franfreluche by Northern Dancer, sparks begin to fly. Frafreluche became US Champion 3yo filly of the Year. From her line came Grand Luxe, Krupt, Flying Spur, Encosta De Lago, and a host of others. Just for Naara is in the thick of these.

                      Exceed and Excel Super Sire

Lot 1422 b c Exceed and Excel – Looking for Love

Exceed and Excel is a worldwide power with his sire line producing 216 SW with a SW/R of 4.23%. He is regarded as primarily a sire of sprinters. However, in his top ten hoses of his sire line there is a scattering of SW victories over 1800 or longer. In fact, his best horse Barney Roy (Excelebration – Alina) won at G1 In Germany over 2415m with three other G1 victories. Alina was by Galileo which suggest Exceed and Excel can pick up staying blood from the right mares. Lot 1442 has a PRI Score of 90.4 and a 6GFI of 7.18. The cross Exceed and Excel with Street Cry mares has produced two SW. September Run (G1 Coolmore Classic 1208m) and Promotions (L Canberra Guineas 1409m).

There will be plenty of good horses sold at the Gold Coast National Yearling sale so good luck. I will be there too.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 3 )

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MM Sale Part 3 Racefillies

The sale of racefillies is an important part of this MM Sale Series.  It may well be that the broodmare of your choice has been served by a stallion you are not comfortable with. Another reason may be the perceived increased price of the mare or perhaps the pedigree of the future foal indicates that it is a poor match. I covered this in my last post. You have another option. Purchasing a race filly where you can select a stallion of your choice. Where do you start? I suggest you look at the broodmare statistics for W/R (winners /runners) . Ignore any statistics based on prize money. Since NSW created these huge purse races this data is of little use.

Savabeel (Zabeel – Savannah Success) 

Savabeel making his mark as a broodmare sire

The son of Zabeel  is currently second on the list of broodmare sires on the basis on a W/R of 39.2%.. He is the broodmare sire of 13 SW including the G1 winner of this year’s Goodwood Handicap  Saxatoxl (Kuroshio –  Li’l Miss Hayley). There are five racefillies for sale in the MM catalogue: Lots 526,574, 575, 615,and 671. Of these fillies Lot 526 Missybeel (Savabeel – Sitting Pretty) has the highest MMI score of  450.Her 6GFI is 7.69. suggesting the female line is reasonably strong. Keeper (Danehill – Nuwirah) also a winner of the Goodwood Handicap is part of the family.

Stallion Selection 

We have examined Missybeel and decided she meets our criteria of what a good broodmare should be. The next step is to examine her pedigree to assess what bloodlines are a suitable match. My homework says look at stallions down the Green Desert line ( Danzig – Foreign Courier). Thirty percent  of Savabeel’s SW as a broodmare sire are from this line of stallions.

Fascino>Charm Spirit>Invincible Spirit> Green Desert

Free of Will>Power>Oasis Dream>Green Desert 

Cloud Surfing>Oasis Dream>Green Desert

Stella De Paco>Paco Boy> Desert Style>Green Desert

And there are plenty around. Seven at the last count and growing.

Using the new sire Magna Grecia (Invincible Spirit – Cabaret) as a  test I calculated a PRI score for the cross Magna Grecia – Missybeel of 73.3 which is very high considering the sire has no SW at present. I also did Lot 575 (Shimmer Lake : Savabeel – Grey Swallow ) with Magna Grecia for a PRI score of 68.6.  So I believe using the Green Desert connection puts you  on the right track.

The sale of racefillies is always exciting and the MM is the place to be.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale (Part 2 )

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MM Sale Part 2 Broodmares.

The MM Broodmare Sale has a bewildering number of possibilities. There are certainly good horses to be found here. When purchasing a mare in foal it is important to look at the foal. The only criteria you can use to assess  the “value” of the foal is its pedigree. As we have already seen the service fee has no connection to how good a racehorse it is likely to be. How much effort is put into establishing the possible racing credentials of the foal? Not much I suspect. The decision is based on other factors.

For example, Speightown is one of America’s leading broodmare sires with  W/R ratio of  41%.. He has two mares in the sale Lot 928 (MMI 250) and Lot 1036 (MMI 540). Focusing on the mare with the highest MMI value, Simply Spiteful,  is believed to be in foal  to Capitalist.. There is no doubt that he is one of Australia’s leading sires. A PRI analysis of the progeny gives a very low value of 47.1. At this index level, horses have an AEI (Average Earning Index) range of 0-1.8. Will this horse fail on the track? Well, racing has its miracles but it usually pays to stick with the odds.

Lot 1179 Blueberry Smoothie (Giant’s Causeway – Shampoo)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Blueberry Smoothie was a useful Stakes winning mare in the USA.  She is By Giant’s Causeway who has risen to number two in the international broodmare sires list. Her MMI is 490 which puts her in the slightly above average category. Her 6GFI is 4.42 which is about average.  It is too early to write off her stud performance with some heavy hitting sires and So You Think is another.. He has risen to number four in the Australian sires premiership.

Giant’s Causeway Number two broodmare sire in world rankings

The Cross

The cross So You Think x Giant’s Causeway has already produces a SW. Good Idea (So You Think – Shamardal by Giant’s Causeway ) won this year’s G2 Adelaide Cup. His dam Faint Perfume (VRC Oaks winner) was no doubtful very helpful. The PRI of the future foal is 77.9 which is not exceptional. There are a few good horses with PRI scores around this level, but also some notable failures. So it is risky territory if you want to spend big money.

All in all, the MM Broodmare Sale is good to be at.

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2021 (Part 1)

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MM Sale Part 1 Weanlings

The MM Weanling and Broodmare Sale is about to get underway. In the MM Weanling Sale section there are plenty of lots on offer to meet the need and aspirations of the buyer. The  budget can also be met. Weanling sales have the advantage that horses are usually less expensive than those at the yearling sales.  The advantage of buying a yearling is that it will look more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. A weanling has more growing to do. It will cost you money while it develops. Having looked at a number of weanling on offer, we have selected two fillies in the MM Weanling Sale that we consider will make successful racehorses.

Lot 78 b f Dubwai – Entisaar

Dubawi was excellent on the track with three wins at G1 level in France and Ireland (7f-1600m). He has 271 SW with a ratio 8.17% SW/R. Gender split is roughly equal. His best female horse was Bonneval (Dubawi – Imposingly, 3xG1, 2xG2, 1xG3).She was the winner of both the NZ and AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes. Dubawi’s progeny have won from 1000m to beyond 2500m with nine out his 10 best horses being miler/stayers.

Dubawi rated 18th in World list of international sires

The Mare

Entisaar (More than Ready – Purrpurriena ) was a G1 winner in South Africa. Her female family has a 6GFI of 4.41% which is reasonable. There is plenty of speed in the female line. Pre Catelan (by Lunchtime) was an exceptionally fast 2yo  that won both the Breeders Plate (L) and Silver Slipper (G2).Another family member Tangiers, won three G3 races (1200-1400m).

The Cross

The cross Dubawi – More than Ready has already produced a G3 SW.  Run Naan won the Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) in 2017. Dosage shows  a middle distance performer but with enough speed to be an early runner. The PRI score of 92.5 indicates the filly could be something special.

Lot 242 b f Exceed and Excel – Witches

The Sire

Exceed and Excel is currently 8th on the Australian Sires premiership table and 20th in the International listing .His line has 215 SW with SW/R at 4.25%.His best filly is Guelph (Exceed and Excel – Camarilla, 4xG1,1xG2, 1xG3).His top ten horses can be split equally into sprinters and Miler/Stayers. Certainly a sire of world status.

The Mare

Lohnro: How successful a broodmare sire will he be?

Witches (Lonhro – Ouija) had a very useful racing career with three wins. Her female line has a very high 6GFI value of 10.9% and Witches is right in the thick of things. There are  a few interesting SW in her female line Northern Drake (Underwood Stakes G1) is one of them

The Cross. 

The cross Exceed and Excel – Lonhro has proved very successful with a ratio SW/R of 7.58% .There are 5 SW produced by this cross;

  • La Tene 2 x G2 including VRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
  • Manicure, Resin, Tin Hat and Munhaaj all G3 winners (1200-1600m)

The pedigree of this filly also has a 3m (Zabeel -Eight Carat) x 5f (Sticks and Stones –Eight Carat ) which could be a useful pedigree reinforcement.

The PRI score for this filly is an exceptionally high.97.1 The MM Weanling Sale is the place to find her.