Category Archives: Linking Racing Ability to Pedigree (PRI)

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This Sale always a number yearlings that achieve more than their sale price dictates. So if you are headed in the direction of the Magic Millions Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2026, good luck!  Here are three yearlings I consider worthy of consideration.

Lot 213 b or br f Trapeze Artist – It’s All Talk

The career of Trapeze Artist is certainly on the way up. In the last twelve months he has improved his ranking in the sire’s premiership table by 21places.  He has sired 12 SW : 5 colts and 7 fillies. He has achieved an impressive SW/r score of 4.94%. His progeny has shown versatility on the racetrack. Spicy Miss won an early G2 2yo race, the Sweet Embrace over 1200m, and Piggyback was successful over 2400m in the G3 Colin Stephens Quality. The cross of Trapeze Artist to Sebring has produced two SW. Griff was the winner of the Caulfield Guineas G1, and the Stutt Stakes at G3. The other SW was Pinito who was successful in the G3 Aspiration Quality over 1600m. The pedigree of Lot 213 has some powerful crosses and with a PRI score of 90.2 this filly is worth a look.

Lot 200 b f Shamus Award – I’m Your Venus

Shamus Award, a son of Snitzel, is keeping the Danzig sire line well and truly alive. Shamus Award has improved his ranking in the Sire’s premiership 24 places in the last 12 months. His record currently stands at 32 SW with a SW/r of 5.78%. His best horse is probably Duais who won an Australian Cup, followed by Incentivise, a Caulfield Cup winner.  The cross of Shamus Award over Show a Heart has already produced three SW. Sovereign Award won three G3 races over 1600m. No Name Lane won two Country Cups (Balaclava and Seymour) both at the L level. Enchanted Heart was successful over 1200m also a L race. Lot 200 scores a PRI of 100.

Lot 241 b c Shamus Award – Light Shows

This colt is bred along similar lines to Lot 200. Probably has a little more speed but Star Shower doesn’t fit  well in the pedigree. Visual analysis is very important. Lot 241 has a PRI score of 91.0.

Anyone looking for an interest in horse racing, the MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale March 2026 is a good place to start.

Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026

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The thoroughbred racing industry appears to be in the middle of a boom. Stake money has increased dramatically but so has the cost of racing a horse. Syndication has resulted in many new owners optimistically hoping they have a share in a champion, and even a share in a winner is a moment of glory to treasure. The first step is selecting a winner, and the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026 is a good place to start looking.

Lot 11 ch c Toronado – Di Lusso 

Toronado, himself a dual G1 winner, is rapidly rising in the international sires ranks. To date he has sired 44 SW. His statistics show SW/r 4.18%, and G1w/r 4.18%. Toronado’s best horse is the dual G1 winner Tribhuvan. In the USA he was successful on turf in the United Nations Stakes over 2200m. His second-best horse is Masked Crusader winner of the G1 William Reid Stakes over 1200m.  So, he has versatility. The cross Toronado to Lonhro has produced Twain’s Angel who won the Scenic Blast Stakes at L level over 1200m.  The PRI score for Lot 11 is 97.1.

Lot 318 b c Ole Kirk – Sei Stella

Ole Kirk is another of the Best in Show matriarch family showing up in a stallion line making good. He is only represented by horses racing as 2yo and 3yo at present. His

                     Ole Kirk

first crop of 2yo produced four SW which is a good start. However, it’s early days yet. I seem to remember Domesday had a similar start to his stud career but then faded out. Ole Kirk has a SW/r score of 5.33%. Ole Dancer is his best horse to date with a win in the G1 One Thousand Guineas of 1600m. The cross of Ole Kirk and Not a Single Doubt has already produced a winner. Prestige Forever won a 1200m Stakes race at the L level.

Lot 494 b f Toronado – Attribution

Exceed And Excel: a champion in retirement

We have already made comments about this sire’s prowess. It is difficult to find a broodmare sire with the international calibre to match him. However, Exceed and Excel   is a good fit. His name appears on the dams’ side of the pedigree of 159 SW.  Overpass, a four-time G1winner in Australia and overseas is the best performed horse with Exceed and Excel as the broodmare sire. The cross between Toronado and Exceed and Excel has one SW. Laced up Heels was successful in a L race over 1400m.

If you are interested in buying a horse or just want to look at wonderful yearlings, then  Inglis Premier Yearling Sale 2026 is worth a visit.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 2026

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First I would like to thank the large number of well wishes who went out of the way to help me during my health problems and the condolence they expressed after the death of my wife Janice. Over the last 12 months fortunately, my health has improved, and you can expect a continuous stream of postings. It’s 12 months since my last posting and I start by selecting three yearlings that have the right genetic makeup and are listed in the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale in February 2026.

Lot 86 b f  Dundeel – Intelligentsia

Dundeel is a well-established and successful sire. He is the sire of 53 SW (33 c, 20 f). SW/r 5.55%; G1W/r 1.57%. His best horse is Militarize (3xG1), including the Golden Rose of 1400m. Most of his progeny are sprinter/milers although he does have a G2 winner in South Africa over 2801m. The cross between Dundeel and Exceed and Excel has produced Tannhauser, the winner of the Rough Habit Plate a G3 over 2000m. With a PRI score of 92.1 she is worth a look.

Lot 162 b or br c Trapeze Artist – Majestic Pedrille

Trapeze Artist is moving up the list of sires. Jumped 21 places from last year. He has produced 10 SW (4 c, 6 f). SW/r 4.35%; G1W/r 0.43%. His best horse is the G1

Trapeze Artist

Caulfield Guineas winner Griff. His progeny has won in distance 1000 – 2400m including the G3 Colin Stephens Quality. The cross of Trapeze Artist to Octagonal has already been twice successful. Facile won a G3 over 1200m and Ducasse a G3 over 1600m. A PRI score of 87.3 suggests consideration.

Lot 283 ch f The Autumn Sun – Pandemonium

I don’t like I told you so stories but while The Autumn Sun was still racing, I predicted his success as a sire in my post – The Autumn Sun: Another Step Towards Greatness – in March 2019. I also predicted he would be most successful in siring winners at the

The Autumn Sun

classic distances. His record to date is 11 SW (4 c, 7 f). SW/r 5.31%; G1W/r 1.93%. His 4 G1 winners are in a group of prestigious races this country has: Autumn Angel: Australian Oaks; Coco Sun: SA Derby; Autumn Boy: Caulfield Guineas; and Autumn Glow: Epsom Handicap.  The cross The Autumn Sun to Sebring has already produced Autumn Mystery a G3 winner over 2000m. With such a super pedigree and a PRI score of 93.5 if you’re serious about owning a classic winner she should be on the list as one to look at.

If you are interested in quality, then Inglis Classic Yearling Sale is the place to be.

MM Yearling Sales January 2025

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The Yearling Sales program is about to get underway. The results will be euphoria and the feeling of having found El Dorado for some. And pain and disillusionment for others. Whatever your equine needs you will find it at MM Yearling Sales January 2025. The trick is making the right choice. A few clients have suggested listing the best roughie and I have alluded to their request with my selections. The more data there is the better the predictions PRI will give. For example, a new sire that has no SW progeny, the maximum PRI score is 80. Whichever process you use for your selection, good luck.

Lot 74 br f           I am Invincible – Villa Carlotta

I am Invincible  has already produced three SW from Street Cry mares. Shuffle Dancer was successful in a G2 for 3yo over 1409m, Waltz on By won two L races for 3yo both over 1409m. Commemorative won a L race over1107m. These three winners were all females. SW/r was an excellent 7.89%.  The dam’s pedigree is of the highest class. Villa Carlotta is inbred to Dancing Show (dam of Shantha’s Choice) and Twyla (dam of Hurricane Sky). Lot 74 has a PRI rating of an impressive 90.8

Lot 358 b c         Sword of State – Empress Cixi

The choice of Lot 358 is not encouraged by a PRI score of 68.3. However, as explained in the preamble because Sword of State has sired no SW the maximum score he can attain is 80.0. We must look at other factors. Firstly, there is no reason to believe his stud performance won’t be similar to other stallions in the male line: Northern Dancer> Danzig> Danehill> Redoutes Choice> Snitzel. Secondly the female line is super strong. It boasts a 6GFI of 23.9. This number is one of the highest I have come across.  Hidden in the descendants is the 5 times G1wnner Royal Palace. The English Derby was one of his wins.

Lot 877 ch c       Bivouac – Sandrelli

The comments made on PRI scores in Lot 358 are relevant. However, a PRI score of 77.1 is more encouraging. We have previously spelled out what a great sire/broodmare sire Exceed and Excel is and has been. The cross of Exceed and Excel over Street Cry has produced seven SW with SW/r of 4.86 We consider that Bivouac should prove to be equally compatible with Street Cry. Bivouac could hit the ground running with this colt.

Lot 913 br c       Grunt – Shamar

Those of my fans who have asked for a selection they can afford, this is my roughie. The Best in Show influence continues to produce not only good horses but superstars. Almond Eye is the latest example.  On the dam’s side, Shamar comes from the line Hela Dubai> Dancing Show> Show Lady> Best in Show. Grunt comes down the Northern Dancer> Last Tycoon> O’Reilly line. He has produced two SW. Multiple SW Veigt won the George Ryder G1. Miraval Rose was successful at L level for 3yo over 1409m. Lot 913 has an average  PRI score of 76.3. An explanation for this is the relatively low number of mares served by Grunt (135). The stud performance of Van Nistelrooy doesn’t help. However perhaps the injection of Storm Cat blood could work wonders.

The MM Yearling Sale is an enjoyable event. I look forward to seeing you there.

MM National Yearling Sale 2024

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The MM National Yearling Sale has been a good source of value for money thoroughbreds. The 2024 Sale should be no exception. However, they could be harder to find. The Sales are dominated by new sires. Also,Danehill and Danehill sons’ duplication add to the complexity. From the MM National Yearling Sales 2024 I have selected three colts with pedigrees that should make good racehorses.

Lot 1316 b c       Dundeel – Grito

Dundeel is a well-established sire of good horses. He has 30 SW; six have won at the G1 level. His colts have out-performed fillies 4:1. SW/r is 5.22%; G1/r is1.39%. On the dam’s side the female line 6GFI is 4.58%. Written Tycoon is part of this line. The cross Dundeel – Redoute’s Choice has been most productive. It has produced five SW, all males. Celestial Legend is the best horse with 2 xG1 wins as a three-year-old. The Randwick Guineas and Doncaster Handicap. A PRI score of 95.0. What’s next for him?

Lot 1399 b c       All Too Hard – Perfect Stranger

All Too Hard has 23 SW to date: SW/r 3.26%. His best horse is undoubtedly Alligator Blood whose record is 6xG1, 3xG2, 2xl. Best win was probably the Futurity Stakes.

Alligator Blood

The dam has a female line with a 6GFI of 6.10%. The best horse in the female line is a toss up between the 3xG1 winners Westminster (ManiIkato Stakes) and Veloso (MacKinnon Stakes and Sydney Cup). The cross between All Too Hard and Red Ransom has produced two SW. Alligator Blood has already been referred to and the other is Tarka, winner of the G2 Stan Fox Stakes of 1500m. Lot 1399 has a very high PRI score of 95.4.

Lot 1522 b c       Snitzel – Zastava

Snitzel: Champion Sire with 199 SW

Snitzel has proved a worthy replacement for Redoute’s Choice at Arrowfield. He has never sired an out and out champion (at least by my definition) but scores of excellent horses. His tally of 199 SW, SW/r of 4.94% testifies to that. The dam’s side if the pedigree is very interesting. She has a stellar 6GFI of 11.9%. The female line includes:

  • Stony Bay 2xG1, winner Tancred and Ranvet Stakes
  • Ethereal 4xG1, winner Caulfield and Melbourne Cups
  • Darci Brahma 5xG1 winner of T J Smith (1600m)

It is rare to see such diverse talent spread in a pedigree. The cross between Snitzel and Encosta de Lago has produced 13 SW; SW/r is 5.07%. There have been five G1winners. The most recent is Communist, winner of the Randwick Guineas of 1610n. Lot 1522 has a PRI score of 98.8.

If you are able to attend the MM National Yearling Sale you will enjoy your day.

 

MM National Weanling Sale 2924

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The popular MM Weanling Sale for 2024 is about to commence. The purchase of a weanling is riskier than buying a yearling. The pro is that you might get a weanling at a bargain price. Perhaps a close relative will win an important race and their value will rocket up. However, there are plenty of cons. Like your own children they must be educated, fed the best food, have the best veterinary attention, kept safe from accidents, and have appropriate housing. And of course, as the weanling matures some conformational faults which were not apparent at the beginning become apparent.

I sometimes believe owners get over impatient and start their weanlings before they are fully matured. In my own experience I sold a Dubleo weaning that raced as an early 3yo. At his third start he won and clocked 55.83 for 1000m. The 1000m record for Warwick Farm is 56.16 and Randwick 55.50. At the Dubleo’s next start he bowed a tendon and never raced again. There are some nice horses at MM National Weanling Sale. I have selected three fillies. The choice of fillies is because they will make excellent broodmares.

Lot 85 bl or br f                 Street Boss – Excelsior Island

Street Boss is becoming one of our best sires. He has 74 SW, 9xG1, SW/r 5.20%. His best horse is undoubtedly Anamoe with 9xG1.  Excelsior Island comes from a strong female line; 6GFI is 8.85%. Good horses in the female line are Mastercraftsman (4xG1 including St James Palace Stakes), and Broad Brush (3xG1 including the Wood Memorial). The cross Street Boss-Exceed and Excel has already produced five SW; SW/r 10.0%. The best horse is Elite Street, winner of Winterbottom Stakes 1208m, and 4xG3. The PRI score for Lot 85 is 99.2.

Lot 264 b f          Wootton Bassett – Sacred Valley

Wootton Bassett has 58 SW and produces stayers of quality. His best horse Almanzor won both the G1 French Derby and the Irish Champion Stakes. He has a high score of SW/r of 7.02% and G1/r of 1.33%. Sacred Valley comes from a productive female line; 6GFI 10.5%, albeit with only 38 descendants. The cross Wootton Bassett – Fastnet Rock has produced one SW. Unanimous Consent scored in the United Nations Stakes 1710m. PRI score for Lot 264 is 98.3

Lot 267 b f          Toronado – Salamati

Toronado has produced 36 SW, SW/r 4.77. His best horse is Tribhuvan 2xG1; winner of the United National Stakes over 2213m in the USA. The dam Salamati comes from a prolific line of mares with a 6GFI of 21.3% from 108 descendants. Foremost among these is the American Champion Wise Dan. A super star with 9xG1, 6xG2, 2xG3 to his credit,

Wise Dan: American Horse of the year 2012 and 2013

the Breeders Cup Mile twice and crowned American Horse of the Year 2012,2013.  The cross Toronado – Dubawi has produced one SW: SW/r 10.0%. Tactical won the G2 July Stakes in the UK. Lot 267 has a PRI score of 97.7.

Those who can attend the experience of MM National Yearling Sale will enjoy the day.

 

Inglis HTBA Yearling Sale 2024

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To quote from the catalogue “The HTBA Yearling Sale provides buyers an opportunity later in the season to purchase value yearlings……..” The catalogue supports this view. The progeny of 79 sires is an impressive number. Something of interest to everyone in the 224 lots on offer. We have selected five yearlings which, on pedigree, are worthy of consideration. Encosta de Lago is the broodmare sire of three of them.

Lot 48 b f So You Think – Miss Presidential

This cross has already produced four SW: evenly split between colts and fillies.  SW/r is a very impressive 7.27%.

Palaisipan won the G1 Tiara over1409m, Higher Ground the G3 Frank Packer Plate 2000, Street Gossip and Regardsmaree were successful at the L level over 1610 and 1409m respectively.

The female line has an impressive 6GFI of10.6%. Riverman and Rock of Gibraltar are powerful inclusions on the dam’s side. A PRI score of 99.6 gives Lot48 excellent pedigree score card.

Lot 174 b c Harry Angel – Classical Lass

Harry Angel appears to be up and running as a sire. This cross has already produced two SW. An incredible SW/r 28.6% is unlikely to be maintained; but it isn’t a bad start.

Encosta De Lago: No 2 Australia Broodmare Sire

Tom Kitten is a G1 winning 2yo over 2012m and was also successful at G3 and L level. Vicious Harry won 2 L races in France over 1100m.

The female line is average, 6GFI at 3.6%. It does contain the multi G1 winner Princess Coup. A PRI score of 87.5 gives lot 174  a competitive claim.

Lot 175 g f Frosted – Comarco

I must confess a slight bias to Frosted. I was at the Kentucky Derby when he went out as favourite; I think he ran fourth. Subsequently he reeled of victories in three of America’s most prestigious G1 races. Victory in the Metropolitan, Whitney and the Wood Memorial shows what a good racehorse he was. All sires in the male line are in the top drawer of American sires in the last 50 years. Frosted is the only one to step a hoof out of the country. The cross has produced a SW.

Ingratiating has won two G3 races. The Bletchingly (1208m), and Vain (1107m) Stakes in addition to two L races. The SW/r ratio is 11.11%. The PRI score is 81.3

There is nothing special about the female line, 6GFI is 3.80%.

Lot 211b f Star Turn – Granados

Star Turn is new. However, he has already sired 7 SW. Two of these are from Encosta de Lago mares. Golden Monkey Scored in a 3yo L race in Singapore over1206m, and Saltaire in the L Inglis Nursery over1006m. This cross shows an excellent SW/r of 10.53%.

The female line is good at 6GFI of 7.95. The even better news is that Lot 211 is right in the mix of black type relations. PRI score an impressive 96.3.

Lot 221 b c Flying Artie – Honeymooncruise

Flying Artie has been off to a good start with eight SW. Two of these have come from Fastnet Rock mares.  SW/r at 10.53% is excellent. Both winners scored at L stakes level. Giannis at 1509 and Vast Art at1409m.

Fastnet Rock: No 1 Australia Broodmare Sire

The dam’s line is strong with 6GFI of 9.09%. Another strength of the pedigree of Lot 221 is that in the 4×4 there are 30 horses. Seventeen (plus a couple of Danzigs) are black type winners, i.e. 63%. The PRI score is 87.9.

The Inglis HTBA Yearling sale will be a wonderful event. Enjoy yourself

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024

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After the heights reached in the Inglis Easter Sale, you might wonder what the Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024 can provide. There are still quality yearlings on offer. They are probably available at a price more buyers can afford. Thoroughbreds’ price (especially their service fee) is  a poor predictor of a foal’s prize-winning potential. There is hope in purchasing something affordable. We have selected five yearlings for consideration based on their pedigrees.

Lot 17 b c Churchill – La Breviere

For anyone interested in a horse with the potential to win the Melbourne Cup, Lot 17 is for you. Churchill has recorded 18 SW; only three have won at less than 1600m.  Two are winners at 2817m in Ireland. His progeny have seven G1 victories to date. The female line through La Breviere is very strong with a 6GFI score of 12.5%.

Churchill: European Champion Juvenile

Two notables in the female line are Outback Prince (T J Smith Classic) and Try My Best Champion Miler). Fastnet Rock is an ideal broodmare match for Churchill. It will put a bit of speed into his staying prowess. This cross has already produced a SW. Churchillian is a G3 winner in NZ over1610m. I rate lot 17 at PRI 95.6.

Lot 65 b f Rubick – Turf Belle

Through his dam Sliding Cube, Rubick joins the long line of super sires who carry the Best in Show genes. The most recent progeny was Almond Eye who won consecutive Japan Cups. Rubick has shown himself to be a sire of sprinters.

Rubick: A member of the Best in Show dynasty

Of his twelve SW, all have won at a distance less than 1600m: most at 1200m. Turf Belle’s female family has a 6GFI of a respectable 4.71%. The cross Rubick – Bel Esprit has produced one SW. Rubiquitous was successful in the L Mick Dittman Plate for 3yo over 1107m.  The PRI score for Lot 65 is 96.7.

Nicconi Yearlings

I have grouped these together because the pedigrees have different weaknesses. However, Nicconi is a successful sire. Just the connections of Nature Strip and if he can overpower any relevant weakness, a useful horse may result. For those readers who are interested in Nicconi yearlings, here are my conclusions.

Lot 70 b f Nicconi – A City Girl

PRI score 72.3; 6GFI 4.22. Scenic in sire line incompatible with all sires in female line

Nature Strip 22 wins,$20m stakes. Nicconi’s best horse

. Cross has produced one SW. Scorched Earth won the L Cramer Valley Pearl 1208m.

 

Lot 79 b f Nicconi – Bellissima Miss

PRI score 83.8; 6GFI 0.80. Only one SW in last 6 generations in female line. Cross has produced one SW. Exclusive Lass won L Black Pearl Classic 1200m.

Lot 82 br f Nicconi – Blessed

PRI score 78.3; 6GFI 2.88. Similar cross to Exceed and Excel mare as lot 70. Problem with Scenic incompatibility. A similar cross produced Scorched Earth.

Overall, there are good affordable yearlings at Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2024

 

Inglis Easter Sale 2024

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales 2024

The wonderful Inglis Easter Sale is almost here. There are 500 Lots on offer. This is a recovery from 457 in 2023. There is somewhat a changing of the guard. A few old established sires have retired, and fresh youngsters have replaced them. I have selected four yearlings which based on pedigree are worth a look.

Lot 27 (b c Maurice – Fenway)

Maurice has produced to date 24 SW. Colts outnumber fillies 2 to 1. SW/r is 3.88%.

The cross of Maurice to the High Chaparral female line has already produced 2 SW.

  • Shigeru Park Ruby won a G2 fillies race in Japan over1406m.
  • Noah “N” Deal won L Tattersall’s Crown over 2113m.

Maurice: Six G1 Victories

The female line comes down through Denise’s Joy and is both prolific and high class. Six generation female index (6GFI) is 11.6%. There isn’t enough room in the catalogue. High achievers such as Primus, Thorn Park, Bentley Biscuit and Ego have been left out. Lot 27 has a PRI score of 97.5. Black Type territory.

 

Lot 28 ( b c Maurice – Fifteen Aria )

Following on the comments on Lot 27, Lot 28 comes from an interesting female line. The cross Maurice with the Danehill stallion Fastnet Rock has produced one SW.

  • Danon Ayers Rock won a L race in Japan over 1811m as a 2yo.

The female line of Lot 28 has a very impressive 6GFI of 22.4%. The cross to O’Reilly raises a few yellow flags. Last Tycoon crosses sometimes fail to achieve a breeder’s expectations – but sometimes they make a champion. A PRI score of 88.8 somewhat reflects this.

Lot 414 ( b c Exceed and Excel -Allez Bien )

With Exceed and Excel being rested from further stud duties, this is a chance of owning one of his last progenies. The sire of 317 SW, it’s a good reason. Exceed and Excel has SW/r of 4.09%. The cross to O’Reilly has already produced two SW.

Exceed and Excel: sire line of 317 SW

  • Dublin Don was the winner of the G3 Pago Pago Stakes over1208m as a 2yo.
  • Invictus Spirit won the L Starlight Stakes over1107m.

The female line of Lot 414 has a very encouraging 6GFI of 13.6%. The PRI score a healthy 94.2.

Lot 498 (ch c Per Incanto – Dreamlife)

Per Incanto had only a modest record as a racehorse. However, he seems to be making up for it as a sire. A SW/r ratio of 4.91 is up with the best of them. Of his 28 SW the best known is the Newmarket Handicap winner Roch ‘N’ Horse. The cross to Danroad has produced one winner.

  • Lost and Running was successful in the G2 Workwear Premier Stakes 1208m.

The female line has a quite acceptable 6GFI of 5.31%. Lot 498 a PRI score on 98.3

The Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is always a great event If you can be there, good luck.

 

Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale 2024

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The Magic Millions Gold Coast 2024 Yearling Sale heralds the commencement of the list of Australian thoroughbred yearling sales. Twelve months ago, in this MM Sale, I posted my choice of three fillies that I considered had the pedigree to do well. Now named, Joy of the World, Starzzaborn, and Toque, only Torque has stated in a race. A third at Wyong, following wins in barrier trials at Randwick and Warwick Farm, is a promising start. One observation I have made from the catalogue of 1468 yearlings is the number of Danehill and Danehill sons crosses breeders continue to make.  Consider the mares put to that excellent sire Extreme Choice (11 SW and SW/r 13.35%). Of the 19 yearlings in the sale,12 (63%) are inbred to Danehill. The owners are obviously no fans of my blogs.

The yearlings I suggest my readers should look at are all fillies:

Lot 28 br f Wootton Bassett – Patsy Boyne

Wootton Bassett is already the sire of 50 SW with a percentage of SW/r of 6.76. The cross to Galileo has produced 3 SW. G1 winners are Zellie (2yo winner Prix Marcel Boussac over 1610m) and Al Riffa (2yo winner Vincent O’brien over 1409m). Chindit was a prolific winner, 2xG2,2xG3,4x L. The PRI score of 93.8 bodes well for her future.

 

Lot 59 br f Maurice – Princess Charlotte

Maurice is an established sire with 23 SW and a 3.79 percentage of SW/r. His best horse to date is Hitotsu. Winning three of Australia’s most important G1 3yo races. AJC, VRC Derbies and Australian Guineas aren’t a bad package. Overall, the cross to Redoute’s Choice produced five SW. The SW/r of this cross is 9.09%. When considered with a PRI score of 100. Lot 59 is certainly worth a look.

 

 

Lot 327 br f Savabeel – Urban

Savabeel

Savabeel is an outstanding sire. He has sired 128 SW. His SW/r score of 10.39% is remarkable. Kawi, his best horse, was a seven times G1winner in NZ. The cross to O’Reilly has produced an astonishing 36 SW. This figure is 28% of his total number of SW. The score for SW/r is 12.16%. The best horse is Probabeel winner of the Futurity Stakes. With a PRI of 98.3, Lot 327 could add to the list.

 

Lot 417 b f  Russian Revolution – Altairs Glow

Russian Revolution

Russian Revolution is a relative newcomer. Although he has only 8 SW he shows plenty of promise. His figures for SW/r are 3.88%. The cross to Australia’s  leading broodmare sire Encosta de Lago has produced a G1 winner. Communist won the Randwick Guineas over 1610m. A PRI score 95.0 suggests a very good racehorse.

I hope you can get to the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale of 2024. You will enjoy the experience.

 

 

Update on PRI analysis of 2020 yearlings

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A review of the effectiveness of a PRI score is due. The yearling sales are about to commence. I thought it opportune to see how successful or otherwise my selections have been. In my postings to my website in 2020 I selected 14 yearlings. You soon learn that two of the most important things you need in racing horses is money, followed by patience. Being patient is emphasised by the fact that my selected horses earned more money in their 4yo career than their combined 2yo and 3yo efforts. This result is of course the expression of the genes in the pedigree. I made my selections with a few exceptions on PRI values alone.

Table for Comparisons

There is little information available on the net about the financial return from racing horses. The excellent article by  Gary Macrell is a must for anyone wishing to own a race horse. There is difficulty in finding comparative data. The best I can come up with is in the table above. I stress this is useful for comparison; there is not enough to reach the level of significance. In my calculations I have used only the capital cost of purchasing a horse. My figures for Return on Capital (ROC) consider only the prize money earned divided by the capital purchase value. The operational costs (training, veterinary, breaking in, transport etc) are considerable and are different for every horse.

Flavonebr Selections Runners Winners SP Total $m ROC %
As 2yo/3yo 14 9 7 1 0.64 22
As 4yo 11 9 2 1.48 58
Random
As 2yo/3yo 12 9 5 0.35 22
As 4yo 10 6 0.44 27
COP  10  9  0.93  9
  1. The horses chosen by Flavonebr from the Sales were obviously slow to mature. At present five of the fourteen continue racing as 5yo. This includes two that have been placed in Stakes races so an improvement of ROC is anticipated with time.
  2. When I developed my PRI Index system, I had no way of measuring if it was better than random. Consequently, I used a random generator to select the same number of horses in the Sale that PRI had selected. Initially the results were almost the same but as more data become available the PRI method rapidly became dominant.
  3. I did find some interesting data in a paper “ Investigation into the profitability of horses sold at the Magic Millions Yearling Sales.” They (COPR)* are hardly friends of the racing industry and I would dispute some of the conclusions they have drawn from the data. However, I have no reason to believe their data is suspect. In fact, their calculations on the data mirror mine   They compared the profitability of the ten highest and lowest yearlings in the 2017 Sales. In their view none made a profit and the ROC value of the expensive was 9%. The income was taken up to September 2022.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that a PRI score can improve the chances of selecting a good horse. It is double that of using random selection.For the ten most expensive yearling at the 2007 Sale. PRI was six times more effective.

For my horse performance of the year I have selected White Abarrio, winner of the

Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Everyone thought he was a good horse as a miler, but suspect at 10f. Moved out three wide to make his run he nevertheless shot forward at the turn into the straight. No-one could catch him. Great Effort.

MM National Yearling Sale

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It is now time to focus on the MM National Yearling Sale for 2023. Four hundred  yearlings are catalogued. Many of these have excellent pedigrees. The challenge is to find ones that will make good racehorses. I have selected four that are very well bred and have high PRI scores. Certainly, they are worth a physical examination. A word here about conformation.. As the great trainer John Nerud (the man who invented the American Breeders Cup Series) is quoted as saying “Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook conformation”. Get advice from an experienced trainer. He will know if a yearling’s comformational “faults” will prevent it from reaching its full potential on the racetrack.

Lot 1442 (b c Xtravagant – Arc)

Xtravagant has produced 5 SW (SW/r 5.05%). Two of these are from a cross to the More Than Ready female sire line . The SW/r number is 66.67%. He’s Exceptional won a L race as a 3yo over1208m.  His sister, Xtravagant Star won  a L race over1107m. The female tail line of Lot 1442 is not exceptionally strong with 6GFI of 6.03%. However, Arc is where the action is and  a PRI is very good at 94.2.

Lot 1481 ( b f Night of Thunder – Chicago Star)

Night of Thunder crossed with Exceed and Excel has already produced two SW, both fillies. This shows as a SW/r value of 25%. Lola Showgirl won a G3 in the UK over1409m and River Night won a L race for 2yo over1006m.

Night of Thunder

The 6GFI of 19.6% is exceptional. The female line contains US Army Ranger, second in the English Derby and a starter in a Melbourne Cup. Both Night of Thunder and Exceed and Excel are versatile in their roles of sire and broodmare sire. Something exceptional could happen. The PRI is very good at 97.1, which adds to confidence.

Lot 1505 (b of br c Pride of Dubai – Di Alta)

Pride of Dubai is off to a great start as a sire. Already twenty SW and three G1 victories. The cross Pride of Dubai to High Chaparral has produced three SW. Desert Lightning won the G2 Avondale Guineas over2113m. She’s Fit was successful in the WA Oaks (G3) over 2415m. Splendiferous was successful in the G3 Premiers Cup at 2415m and the L Port Adelaide Cup over 2515m. The score of SW/r of 20% is very impressive. The female tail line is also impressive with a 6GFI of19.2%. The great sire Darshaan is the best performed horse. The PRI score is the maximum of 100.

Lot 1567 (b c Dundeel – Italia Bella)

The cross Dundeel – Fastnet Rock has produced a L SW. Cerberus won the Hill Stakes over1811m. The SW/r is only a modest 3.23%. However, the strength of the pedigree is in the female tail line with a 6GFI of 20.5%. Impressive enough, and highlighted by the mare Grand Luxe (Sir Ivor – Fanfeluche). Fanfeluche was

Fanfreluche in retirement

Canadian horse of the year and US Champion 3yo filly and when sold she was the world’s most expensive mare.  L’On Vite (dam of Holy Roman Emperor) is part of her female line. PRI score of 97.5 is worth noting.

Every Year the MM National Yearling Sale is a wonderful event. Hope you can make it.

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale May 2023

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The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale of 2023 has 191 Lots for sale. Eighty-nine stallions are represented. The majority are new or untried. The sale gives buyers a wide choice. However, it makes it harder to evaluate the offerings. I have selected three yearlings that rank highly on my system. I believe they are worth examination.

Lot 21 b f Star Witness – Bonyatta

This cross of Star Witness to Street Cry has produced two SW fillies. Alsephina was successful in the G3 La Trice Classic over 1811m. Threeood won the G3 Gosford Belle of the Turf over 1600m. Street Cry is rapidly rising the list of successful broodmare

Street Cry

sires. His best effort to date is the triple G1 winner Cascadian, an Australian Cup winner. This cross has a very impressive SW/r score of 18.2%. The female 6GFI is 11.0%. Boosted by the Eight Carat female bloodline, Octagonal, Danewin, Commands, Tristalove etc. The PRI score of Lot 21 is 95.8.

Lot 44 b f Brazen Beau – De Sea Eagle

The cross Brazen Beau to Flying Spur has produced two SW. On the Bubbles was a G1 winner of the Manawatu Sires in NZ over 1409m. It was also successful in 3 L races. Bello Beau was successful in two L races in Australia. Statistically this cross has an SW/r ratio of 9.52%. The female line has 6GFI of 7.85%. Petrova the dual G1 winner in South Africa is the best horse. She won the Fillies Guineas of 1600m. Lot 44 scores 87.9 in PRI analysis.

Lot 143 b c Starcraft – Rezyana

To date this cross has produced one SW. However, this colt has the pedigree to add to it. The SW/r score is only a modest 4.0%, but the female tail line could produce

Starcraft

something magical. The cross Starcraft to Redoute’s Choice produced Lorimer Street winner of the L St Albans Stakes as a 2yo over 1208m. The 6GFI is 8.91%. Looking back down the tail female line one finds Spring Adieu (Buckpasser-Natalma). Natalma is of course the dam of Northern Dancer. Nothing wrong with the male side of the pedigree either. The PRI score for Lot 143 is 98.3.

 

 

 

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has an interesting list of yearlings from untried sires. Certainly they need physical examination.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale

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Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2023 follows the Inglis Chairman’s Sale. The Broodmare Sale has several interesting mares. A buyer must be aware that not only they will meet the initial outlay for a mare in foal but should budget for spending a minimum of $40-50 thousand to the time of her progeny’s first race. When I consider purchasing a mare in foal, I closely examine two factors.

  • The progeny resulting from the mating should be investigated as one would for a yearling at a Sale. Of course, examination of physical characteristics is not possible. One needs to rely on the previous history of the mare and siblings. A PRI calculation is a good start.
  • A close examination of the data in the catalogue. I have developed a system (MMI, Mare’s Mating Index). My system is open ended (like the earthquake Richter scale). Numbers go from zero to over 2000. The average is 415.

I have selected three mares in the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale which warrant consideration.

Lot 263 b m Paper Plane (Fastnet Rock – Luminous Eyes) : Served by Wootton Bassett

  • The cross Wootton Bassett – Fastnet Rock has already produced one SW. Unanimous Consent was successful at L level in America over1710m. This cross has SW/r of 11.1%. The PRI score for the progeny is a healthy 87.5.

Wootton Bassett

  • The mare rates above average with MMI of 640. The 6GFI is a very impressive 18.8% The best horse down the female line is the dual G1 winner French horse Youmzain. Probably best known for coming second three times in the Arc.

Lot 300 b m Stars Are Out (Fastnet Rock – Moon is Up) : Served by Pride of Dubai

  • The cross Pride of Dubai – Fastnet Rock has produced two SW. Saif was successful at G3 level over 1409m. Queen if Dubai has won a L race over1409m. This cross has SW/r of 10%. The PRI score for the progeny is 87.9.

Pride of Dubai

  • The mare rates a MMI of 520. The 6GFI is a healthy 14.8%. It is even more impressive when you consider that Miesque the dam of Kingmambo is part of the female line. From 913 foals he produced 85 SW (9.3%). Who wouldn’t want him in your female family?
Lot 330 b m All That I Know (More Than Ready – Lucida): Served by So You Think
  • The cross So you Think – More Than Ready has produced a SW. Cognito was the winner of the G2 NZ Guineas over1409m. The PRI score of this progeny is a stellar 99.2.
  • The mare rates above average with MMI of 520. The 6GFI is 12.5%. The female side of the pedigree has Eight Carat and all her related superstars.

If you want to see some quality mares, Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Inglis HTBA Yearling Sale April 2023

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The Inglis Yearling Sale April 2023 has 299 entrees. There are 62 sires represented; most are new with their progeny yet to make an impact on the race track. This makes it more difficult to evaluate the pedigrees of the yearlings. The analytical methods are the same. However, the outcomes are less precise but here are two I like.

Lot 33  br f  All Too Hard – Fortunately

The cross All Too Hard – More Than Ready has worked well and produced three SW. Two of these were success at G1 level three times. Wellington won in Hong Kong including the prestigious Hong Kong Silver Jubilee Cup over 1409m. Forbidden Love was successful in the George Ryder Stakes over1509m.Outrageous was successful at G3 level over1509m. The 6GFI of the dam’s line was an acceptable 5.14%. The female line is dominated by the exceptional broodmare Twiglet. Lot 33 has a PRI score of 96.3. On this basis it should be a good winner

Lot 248 b c Shalaa – Belle De Jeu

Shalaa wins at Deauville (2015)

The cross Shalaa – Not a Single Doubt has an outstanding SW/r  of 25%. Shaquero is the is one SW  produced to date. He was successful in the G3 Pago  Pago Stakes over over1208m.The female line has a 6GFI of 5.39%. Dominated by the Golder Slipper winner Belle De Jour. Lot 248 has a PRI score of 89.6. With luck it should be successful.

If you are attending the Inglis HTBA Yearling sale have a look at these two horses. I hope they physically match their looks with their pedigree.