Category Archives: Sales

Gold Coast National Weanling and Broodmare Sale 2021 (Part 1)

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MM Sale Part 1 Weanlings

The MM Weanling and Broodmare Sale is about to get underway. In the MM Weanling Sale section there are plenty of lots on offer to meet the need and aspirations of the buyer. The  budget can also be met. Weanling sales have the advantage that horses are usually less expensive than those at the yearling sales.  The advantage of buying a yearling is that it will look more like the racehorse it will grow up to be. A weanling has more growing to do. It will cost you money while it develops. Having looked at a number of weanling on offer, we have selected two fillies in the MM Weanling Sale that we consider will make successful racehorses.

Lot 78 b f Dubwai – Entisaar

Dubawi was excellent on the track with three wins at G1 level in France and Ireland (7f-1600m). He has 271 SW with a ratio 8.17% SW/R. Gender split is roughly equal. His best female horse was Bonneval (Dubawi – Imposingly, 3xG1, 2xG2, 1xG3).She was the winner of both the NZ and AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes. Dubawi’s progeny have won from 1000m to beyond 2500m with nine out his 10 best horses being miler/stayers.

Dubawi rated 18th in World list of international sires

The Mare

Entisaar (More than Ready – Purrpurriena ) was a G1 winner in South Africa. Her female family has a 6GFI of 4.41% which is reasonable. There is plenty of speed in the female line. Pre Catelan (by Lunchtime) was an exceptionally fast 2yo  that won both the Breeders Plate (L) and Silver Slipper (G2).Another family member Tangiers, won three G3 races (1200-1400m).

The Cross

The cross Dubawi – More than Ready has already produced a G3 SW.  Run Naan won the Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) in 2017. Dosage shows  a middle distance performer but with enough speed to be an early runner. The PRI score of 92.5 indicates the filly could be something special.

Lot 242 b f Exceed and Excel – Witches

The Sire

Exceed and Excel is currently 8th on the Australian Sires premiership table and 20th in the International listing .His line has 215 SW with SW/R at 4.25%.His best filly is Guelph (Exceed and Excel – Camarilla, 4xG1,1xG2, 1xG3).His top ten horses can be split equally into sprinters and Miler/Stayers. Certainly a sire of world status.

The Mare

Lohnro: How successful a broodmare sire will he be?

Witches (Lonhro – Ouija) had a very useful racing career with three wins. Her female line has a very high 6GFI value of 10.9% and Witches is right in the thick of things. There are  a few interesting SW in her female line Northern Drake (Underwood Stakes G1) is one of them

The Cross. 

The cross Exceed and Excel – Lonhro has proved very successful with a ratio SW/R of 7.58% .There are 5 SW produced by this cross;

  • La Tene 2 x G2 including VRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
  • Manicure, Resin, Tin Hat and Munhaaj all G3 winners (1200-1600m)

The pedigree of this filly also has a 3m (Zabeel -Eight Carat) x 5f (Sticks and Stones –Eight Carat ) which could be a useful pedigree reinforcement.

The PRI score for this filly is an exceptionally high.97.1 The MM Weanling Sale is the place to find her.

 

 

Inglis Gold Yearling Sale 2021

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The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale almost concludes the run of the large yearling sales in Australia for this year. Some yearlings who failed to meet the entrance criteria for the major sales are offered. There are also some which did meet the criteria but just weren’t ready for sale earlier in the year.  If you are looking to buy a horse that can win a Cox Plate then be a starter in the Arc D’Triomphe all for $40,000, this isn’t the place to look. However, if your goal is to buy a horse that can compete in your local Country Cups, you are looking in the right place.

We narrowed the 339 Lots on offer down to 15 and have chosen 2 which meet our selection rules. The number one rule is to uncover enough information to improve the chances of selecting a good individual on pedigree.

Lot 44 b f Starcraft – Sleek Anitra

The Sire

Starcraft has produced 40 SW:22 male and 18 females. He is from the Nureyev dynasty (3077 SW) which has produced some imposing horses. Lonhro, Octagonal, Miseque (dual Breeders Cup mile winner), Verry Elleegant, Almond Eye, and Makybe Diva-before we get to the lesser lights. Starcraft was an excellent racehorse.

  Starcraft

There aren’t too many sires standing in Australia that have won three G1 of the ilk of AJC Derby, French Prix du Moulin de Longchamps, and the English Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. On the face of it he appears to be underutilised. Most of his best horses are winners in the range 1200-1600m

The Mare

You can’t improve much on two wins from two starts both as a 2yo. Sleek Anitra’s second win was at Flemington over 1400m. At first glance her performance at stud isn’t that impressive: seven foals. four to race, and only one winner. However, one can find excuses.

Served three times to Anacheeva that is not a good match. Anacheeva has proved to be anything but that at stud. He has one SW out of 111 starters (0.90%). The cross to Fastnet Rock has not produced any SW in 5 attempts and the cross Anabaa x Fastnet Rock no SW in 25 attempts. Her 6GFI of 9.1% shows she should be capable of producing better.

The Cross

The cross Starcraft x Fastnet Rock has already produced two SW from 29 runners (6.9%). Our Crown Mistress (Starcraft – Barangaroo) has won two listed races (1400/1300m). Pearl Star (Starcraft – Pearl of the Sea) won a listed race over 1100m as a 2yo. She has since had a foal (Cumberbatch) that has won at both Flemington and Sandown. This is another indication that the female line has strength. The cross Starcraft – Sleek Anitra has a PRI score of 82.5 which puts her in the winners’ category.

Lot 286 b f Magnus – Light Rose

The Sire

Magnus has produced 19 SW:12 male and 7 females.  Being part of the Danehill line through his sire Flying Spur, has probably limited his opportunities with so much Danehill blood in the local broodmare population. Magnus has a SW/R ratio of 3.47%. Most of his runners are sprinters.

The Mare

The mare Light Rose never started, but the commencement of her stud duties has been promising. She has produced Magnesium Rose a full sister to Lot 286. Magnesium Rose has won three times, including a win over triple SW mare Teleplay and continues to race. Her 6GFI is 4.37% and her female line includes the 6 times G1 winner Durbridge. His victories include the AJC Derby and the Australian Cup.

The Cross

The cross Magnus – Royal Academy has already produced a L SW winner Front Page (Magnus – Stacey Lee) in the A R Creswick Stakes 1208m. Lot 286 has a PRI value 0f 88.8; definitely in winners’ territory.

The Inglis Gold Yearling Sale has plenty of interesting horses. Sorting them out is the task.

Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021

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For those interested in broodmares, the selling season kicks off with the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021. There are many reasons why people purchase broodmares. It is a great thrill to breed a horse that goes on to win races. The Industry is more interested in the pedigree of the stallion than the mare. But as they contribute equally to the genetic make up of the foal, the mare deserves equal attention.

People who buy broodmares are either breeding for the racetrack or for the market. My comments are more directed to the former. What should we be looking for in the selection of a broodmare? J L Taylor, one of America’s Master Horsemen, lists six criteria which are relevant. Pedigree, production, performance, conformation, age, and your bank credit position are all factors. Another factor relevant to Australian sales is that broodmares are often sold while in foal. This is both good and bad. If you don’t want the foal then you will still be up for the maintenance cost before it can be sold. Vendors sell broodmares in foal for many reasons but checking if the pedigrees of the sire and dam is probably not an important one. The buyer should do their own checking.

Things to look for in a broodmare

Confining our discussion to the pedigree of the broodmare, most important is

  • A pedigree has to have depth with a number of winners throughout the first three generations
  • If there is a covering stallion, proof that he is likely to produce a winner and the covering is not just there to provide a convenient pregnancy in the hope of raising the value of the broodmare.

I also like to look at the 6GFI (Six Generation Female Index) which I like to be above four. I also calculate the MMI (Mare’s Mating Index) which calculates a value for the female family from the first three generations. The average values range from 100 to about 750 and are related to the chance of producing a SW..

Finally, in purchasing a broodmare at the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale 2021 all factors should be examined. Failure to meet one criterion should not condemn the mare. It’s more a matter of how many boxes she can tick.

Lot 404 Friendly Donna (Exceed and Excel – Donna Intelligente)

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

All Too Hard wins Caulfield Guineas

Friendly Donna had a pretty appalling race record. In five starts she couldn’t even win at the picnics. Her 6GFI score of 8.04 provides better news and her dam is amongst a few good SW. It would be hoped that her MMI would also be reasonable but at 125B it is pretty low.

All Too Hard is currently 10th on the Australian Sires list and is on the way up. Exceed and Excel, the broodmare sire, is 8th on the broodmare sire’s list. In this calendar year there have been five runners with this cross and one SW. Unfair Dismissal (All Too Hard – Up and Up by Exceed and Excel) won the L Oaklands Plate for 2yo (1400m). He has gone on to achieve 5 wins and $192,000 in earnings. The PRI score for the progeny is 90.4 which is a number for a winner. Despite the negatives this could be a good buy but I wouldn’t pay over the odds.

Lot 484 Nudierudie (Encosta de Lago – Nakedinaspa)

Served by So You Think

Mare and Covering Sire

Nudierudie was a good mare on the track with four wins. Although her 6GFI is only 4.88, her female line does contain some powerful horses. Windbag, Staging, Mannerism and Duporth to name a few. Her MMI is not huge at 280B.

So You Think 10 G1 Victories-proving his worth as a sire

So You Think has now risen to fourth of the Australian Sires’ List. Encosta de Lago, the broodmare sire is now number one. The cross has already produced a G3 winner in Higher Ground (So You Think – Dark Vision by Encosta de Lago). In a short career of nine runs he won four times including the Frank Packer Plate and amassed earnings of $226,405.  A PRI score of 92.9 indicates a city winner at least.

Lot 518 Showada (Encosta de Lago – Lacada)

 

Served by All Too Hard

Mare and Covering Sire

Showada won a staying race and the family is full of stayers and So You Think should support a distance performer. Showada has a 6GFI of 20 and a MMI score of 390B. Indications of a strong female line.

I have already discussed All Too Hard, and the broodmare sire Encosta de Lago. The match has produced Alligator Blood (All Too Hard – Lake Superior by Encosta De Lago). This horse, winner of the Australian Guineas (G1) Has won nine times in 15 starts and amassed $1.85m in earnings. A PRI score of 93.3 indicates the Showada foal could have a bright future.

If you are interested in a broodmare the Inglis Australian Broodmare Sale is the place to be.

 

Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021

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The time honored Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021 will soon be upon us. The old tree may no longer be there, but the social comradery certainly will be. The Sale is skewed towards the Australian sires currently at the top of the premiership list. Of the 466 lots on offer, 55% come from the first 15 sires in the 2021 premiership table. Even though there isn’t a lot of variety, there are some interesting horses to look at. A contractual obligation limits the comments I can make in certain areas but I am free to report on some of my observations.

Japanese bred horses have a great record in Australia from very limited opportunities. Melbourne and Caufield Cups, Blue Diamond Stakes and a couple of Toorak Handicaps aren’t a bad record.  I have selected a Japanese bred horse by Deep Impact, and a yearling by More Than Ready as horses worth looking at.

Lot 103 (b or br c More Than Ready – Street ‘Em Shelia)

More than Ready is a remarkable sire and I have made comments about him before. He now ranks 43 in the world sire list and his sire line has 316 SW with 42 G1.  His progeny can win at any distance between 1000-2500m, depending what genes the dam brings to the table. The cross between sire lines More Than Ready X Street Cry has already produced three SW.

More Than Ready-Champion Sire for many years

  • Sesar (G2 Roman Consul Stakes 1100m and G3 Ken Russel Memorial 1200)
  • Miss Admiration (G3 Colin Stephens Stakes 2400m and G3 Japan Racing Assoc 2500m)
  • Mokarris (L Rose Bowl Stakes GB 6f)

Street ‘Em Shelia is part of a strong female family with a 6G female index of 11.9%. Green Dancer (3 G1, sire of 90 SW) and Authorized (joint world champion 3yo of 2007) are part of the female family. A PRI score of 96.0 points to a winner.

Lot 180 (b c Deep Impact – Admire Pink)

Deep Impact-World’s Number One Sire

Deep Impact is currently the world’s leading sire, a position he occupied in 2020. The cross between the sire lines of Deep Impact and King Kamehameha has a SW/R ratio of 14.3% and G1W/R ratio of 3.6%.  (For comparison a contemporary Australian combination is Redoute’s Choice x Encosta de Lago with SW/R 6.59% and G1W/R 1.5%). The cross Deep Impact X King Kamehameha has produced four SW. The best is Wagnerian winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun Derby.

Admire Pink comes from a high-class female family with a 6GFI of 12.6%. Her position in the female family is further away from the black type action than I would like. Nevertheless, she is still part of the family. With a PRI score of 92.1, Lot 180 is worth a look.

While you are at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2021, stop to have a look at Lot 257. This filly (Snitzel –Crystal Flute) is bred on a Delta Cross about which we have made comments before. Soon, a horse bred on this type of cross is likely to be a super star. The question is which one?

MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021

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The quality of the yearlings in this year’s MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021 is not of the same standard as their first sale of the year. Of the 419 lots on offer, only seven horses are from sires present in the top ten of sires’ premiership list. In addition, the quality of broodmares is down to an average index of around 300 compared with 700 in the yearling sales held to date. Nevertheless, there are winners to be had -finding them is more difficult. Of the horses I have examined, one is of interest. Unfortunately the data is not available around him that I would like. 

The three sires of interest in the top ten are All too Hard (Lots 9,79,262,369,404), Pierro (Lot 28) and Zoustar (Lot 40). Of these I believe the latter is of most interest.

Lot 40 (Zoustar – Beyonce’s Star)

The analysis of the pedigree of this horse demonstrates the need to rely on secondary data if primary data is not available. Primary data is that produced by looking how well the sire and dam male line cross.  The PRI score for the above match is a low 58.5. This usually means a country class horse. However, in the case of Lot 40, 37.5% of the data is missing. Orientate, Mt Livermore and Tell have few descendants in Australia contributing to the pedigree. The low PRI score can be explained by the absence of data. But for more insight examination of the secondary data is necessary.

Fappiano: Is he the key to success?

  • The mare Beyonce’s Star is a SW and is the dam of a SW
  • Zoustar has already produced at least 17SW. I don’t know if his heroics of last Saturday have hit the record books yet. Certainly, a Newmarket Handicap quinella is pretty rare)
  • Zoustar has produced a stake winner/runners (S/R) ratio of 5.54% which compares favorably with a Redoute’s Choice benchmark of 4.61%
  • Orientate in the broodmare sire line has produced 25SW (16 male, 9 female) and has an S/R of 5.5%
  • The Orientate broodmare sire line crosses well to Fappiano in the male sire line. 36% of his 25 winners are crossed to Fappiano.

The data above and the fact that Zoustar is going from strength to strength suggests strongly that this colt is worth a look. He could well be the best buy in the MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2021.

Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2021

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Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2021

The Inglis Classic Yearling Sales heralds the start of the Inglis selling season. There are 803 lots on offer from 109 sires. In 2020, I set down some hints on how to find a good stayer at this venue. This year I have concentrated on looking at the progeny on offer from two of the best available. Savabeel and Tavistock have the highest current credentials to take on the mantle of best local sire of stayers. Other sires may produce a good stayer but the data is rather sparse to find one from a pedigree examination.. The information about the Savabeel and Tavistock colts in the Inglis Classic Yearling Sales is more complete.

Savabeel (Zabeel-Savannah Express)

This horse already has 102 SW with 21 G1 on the sires’ side of the pedigree. His SW are evenly split; 50 males and 52 females. Savabeel’s credentials are confirmed through Sangster (Savabeel – Quinta Special) with wins in the Victoria Derby (2500m) and Auckland Cup (3200m). There are four lots on offer all with PRI rankings between 77 to 100. As the broodmare sire (Redwood) of the lowest ranked PRI, Lot 517, has no SW so we shall concentrate on the other three.

Savabeel -super sire

Lot 69 (Savabeel – Kansas), and Lot 343 (Savabeel – Starry) both have O’Reilly as their broodmare sire. The cross Savabeel x O’Reilly has to be one of the hottest in town. 19 SW with four G1 winners including Savaria (NZ Oaks) and Costume (Kelt Capital) are two of these.

Lot 14 (Savabeel – Got It) with Pins as the broodmare sire is another excellent cross producing 13 SW. Brambles (Queensland Derby) is one of three G1 winners.

These horse score highly enough to be considered as potential SW.

Tavistock (Montjeu – Upstage)   

Tavistock has started his stud career well. He has 23 SW with 7 G1. There appears to be some sex bias towards males with 17 and 6 females. There are three Lots on offer, all colts. His G1 winners include two Victorian Derby winners Tarzino and Johnny Get Angry.

Tavistock-young sire on the way up

The cross of Tavistock x Thorn Park (Lot 7) and Tavistock x Flying Spur (Lot 148) have not yet produced a SW. Therefor we shall look closely at Lot 384 (Tavistock – Tipilk) with Volksraad the broodmare sire. Tavistock x Volksraad  produced the G1 winner Volkstok’n’barrell. He won three G1 which included the Rosehill Guineas. Lot 384 has a PRI Score of 92.3%. Whereas this is an excellent rating, the result of an examination of the six generation female line (6GFI) is something to get excited about. The index rates 5.03% which is about average for a city class field. However, the quality of some of her ancestors is exceptional as shown in the Table.

So with a female line like this there is always a chance of a champion showing up – but your odds are just over 50/1.

 

Where are all the mares from top Northern Hemisphere sires

Where are all the mares from top Northern Hemisphere sires?

Australian breeders are bringing the best stallion bloodlines to Australia, however, mares from the top broodmare sires in the northern hemisphere are quite rare. We have never had two US Triple Crown winners reported to stand at the same time for 2020. But what about the mares from top Broodmare sires of the Northern Hemisphere? At the Gold Coast MM National Broodmare and Weanling Sale such mares are very rare.

Top Broodmare sires of the Northern Hemisphere

Bloodhorse ranks Giant’s Causeway as the leading broodmare sire in the Northern Hemisphere. From 397 runners he produced 180 winners (45%w/r) and 12 SW. In the top ten, the Halo line through Sunday Silence has two representatives. A P Indy and French Deputy also have two each. None of these broodmare sires have any mares in the sale. Why is it so? Are Australian breeders more interested in black type form in weak listed races than in pedigrees? Perhaps these mares are too expensive for them? Perhaps the market responds to form in listed races and regard pedigree of little importance? Halo dominance goes further than the top ten. In rankings 11-20, the broodmare sire through Halo has an additional four stallions. The total is six out of the top twenty (30%).

Giant’s Causeway

Giant’s Causeway is the only Broodmare sire in the top ten of the Northern Hemisphere represented at the Sale. He has two lots. How will their progeny measure up?

Lot 572 Blueberry Smoothie (Giant’s Causeway-Shampoo) in foal to The Autumn Sun

Blueberry Smoothie has a Mares’ Mating Index (MMI) of 540 which is useful but 30% below the best I have measured. The PRI score is 66.7 % which doesn’t suggest great things are in store for the progeny. The analysis is hindered by the fact that The Autumn Sun is at the start of his stud career and has no runners let alone SW. Dosage suggest at horse at his best at the classic distances. Danehill and most of his sons cross well with Storm Cat broodmare lines so that is something in the mare’s favour.

Lot 637 Elahi (Giant’s Causeway-Tempest Morn) in foal to Dundeel

Elahi has a Mares’ Mating Index (MMI) rating of 590 which is 25% below the best. The PRI score is a modest 71%. However, there is some good news here. Of the ten SW of Dundeel, three have Storm Bird represented in their female line. The most relevant is Transact (Dundeel-Rap Tale, by Tale of the Cat) who was successful in the VRC St Leger over 2800m. Dosage suggests a strong stayer, so if you are looking for a potential Melbourne Cup horse, this could be it. You probably need a colt as all ten Dundeel stake winners have been of the male variety..

Summary

Before leaving the subject of Giant’s Causeway, a word about what a great racehorse this six times G1 winner was .One of these wins was the Irish Champion Stakes but his best performance was in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic. He didn’t win, but his performance was that of a real Champion. Three times America’s top sire, European Champion horse in 2000, and now top broodmare sire. What is left to achieve?

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales Round 2

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Inglis Easter Yearling Sale Round 2

There are some nice horses for sale here. There are plenty from sires that started their careers in 2017 and whose progeny are rising 2yo. They have not yet raced. This means that an evaluation based on the performance of SW progeny of the sire is not possible. There is no data. It will start  accumulating when the new racing season commences.The overall difficulty of assessing potential winners is increased and we to rely more on other factors. The 6 Generation Female Index (6GFI) and the Mares ’Mating Index (MMI) are two tools that can help. The PRI, which is a data based system isn’t much help as 60% of the data is missing.

Mares’ Mating Index

This is calculated from information on stake winners found in the last 3 generations of the broodmare’s family. The exercise is carried out for every individual mare in a stallion’s book for a selected year. The results can be related to the overall strength of the broodmare band. I applied this technique to the mares served by twenty-two stallions who started their stud career in 2017. Those mares sent to American Pharoah topped the list at 787.9 points. This was 8% higher than the second placed band of mares and 165% higher than the lowest ranked group. I must admit to being a fan of American Pharoah as I was at Churchill Downs with 180,000 others to watch him win the Kentucky Derby. With the help of Jay Hovdey, America’s Leading Racing Journalist, Bob Moses a Victorian Owner and I picked the trifecta. Fort Knox is just down the road but it wasn’t needed.

Six Generation Female index

This is the percentage of Stake Winners in the tail female line. When obtaining this data, it becomes apparent where the stake winners are clustered and you need your mare to be as close as possible to these clusters. It doesn’t always happen like this but it is better to be with a group than by your own.

American Pharoah Progeny

American Pharoah in 2015 became the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. There have only been 13 horses to take that title. His credentials as a superior

American Pharoah wins the third leg of the triple crown

racehorse are high. One would expect him to be a successful sire, but he has to prove it. American Pharoah is shown to have the best book of mares of the 22 examined. Hence we have zeroed in on his progeny. There are five yearlings at the sale by the following mares. All have dosage values which show they should be sprinters:

Sucker Punch 13.8; Paris Who 7.5; Joie d’Espirit 5.2; Tornado Miss 4.0; Amberio 3.3; Angel Face 1.0.

The colt by Sucker Punch has the strongest female family by far. Although the catalogue doesn’t show it, the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist is not far away in the pedigree so he is definitely worth a look.  Not too many mare pedigrees have two Golden Slipper winners up close.

Inglis Easter Yearling Sales 2020

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Inglis  Easter Yearling Sales 2020 (Part1)

The famous Sydney Easter Sales of 2020 are about to get underway and as always there are some excellent colts and fillies in the 514 Lots on display. I have picked out the pedigree of three horses to examine. Another Delta cross producing a colt (lot 44) which is closely related to the Snitzel-Crystal Flute colt I made comments about in my December blog.  A filly from a Sunday Silence mare and a high PRI ranking Exceed and Excel Colt (Lot 342).

Lot 44:  Not a Single Doubt-Lucky Raquie

This colt has a 2×2 cross of a full brother to a full sister (Redoute’s Choice x Monsoon Wedding). The parentage of both horses is Danehill x Shantha’s Choice.  This cross is a type of Delta cross and is quite rare. Monsoon Wedding (Danehill- Shantha’s Choice) produced two fillies to Encosta de Lago and these are of course full sisters. Crystal Flute was mated to Snitzel and Lucky Raquie to Not a Single Doubt. Both colts had PRI scores in the mid 80’s so they should win races. Lot 44 should be a sprinter. A word of caution though, these delta crosses can be either very good or very bad..

Lot 230: More than Ready-Sunday Joy

Sunday Silence

         Sunday Silence

Sunday Silence is currently the most successful broodmare sire in the Northern Hemisphere. Last year he had score of 91.4% winners/dam. Any of his mares are worth looking at. I calculated a PRI score at 82.5 which is a little lower than expected.  Although Inbreeding to Halo doesn’t seem to be a problem, Hail to Reason doesn’t seem to like many of the stallions in the broodmare sires pedigree. Still with the powerful genes in Sunday Joy, this may be overcome.

Lot 342: Exceed and Excel-Bahia               

After my first run through of the Catalogue, I thought Lot 342 could be a bargain buy. However, after some research I now believe this colt is worth big money. His PRI score was very high and the 6GFI of his dam a respectable 6.2. More encouraging is the fact that Bahia is right in the middle of a golden vein of black type winners. Not only that, but the female family contains a number of high class sprinters. Brawny Spirit (3xG1, including a Newmarket Handicap), Reward for Effort winner of a Blue Diamond and Turrfontein (2xG1, with a William Reid Stakes) to mention a few. There is also a Victoria Derby winner Hit the Roof. A dosage analysis suggests this horse will be very quick

My examination is only at the pedigree level.  You need to look and make your mind up.

Capricornia Yearling Sales 2020

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Capricorn Yearling Sale 2020

The Sale begins on April 5th.. With all the distractions around I hope the organizers will be rewarded for their considerable effort. There are 91 Lots representing 39 Stallions. and  interesting yearlings from Domesday and Foxwedge. The stallions fall into three groups

  • Established proven sires of Stake Winners who some people believe are past their best. (Holy Roman Emperor (67SW), Domesday (18SW), Falvelon (11SW))
  • A few up and comers, Foxwedge (15SW) )
  • The majority trying to make their mark or just starting off.

To discuss, I have selected Lot 14 and Lot 82.

Lot 14 (Domesday- Halle Mcollywill)

I have talked about Domesday (18SW, 5x G1) before. Lot 14 is the only horse that I can find in the Sale where the sire has produced a SW from a match to a SW brood mare sire. In this case Mossman.  The horse was Cailin Miss (Domesday – Partygoer by Mossman). She only had 4 starts and won a Listed race in South Australia. Since retiring she has visited some heavy hitting mates. In order Foxwedge, Snitzel and I Am Invincible which shows someone believes in her quality. A PRI score of 85.6 points to a city winner. Although her 6GFI is a modest 4.8%, the action around the dam is very good (1xG1, 1xG2, 3xG3 and 1xL).  The mating to produce Lot 14 is a wide outcross. No Danehills anywhere to muddy the waters .Although Domesday’s best horses have been colts; this filly would be worth a look.

Lot 82 (Foxwedge – Burleigh Bullet)

Foxwedge

Foxwedge     Young sire on the way up

If you are looking to buy from a sire on the way up, then Foxwedge is for you. His oldest progeny are only 5 yo and he has already produced 15SW.  His three G1 winners are widely spread; New Zealand, Western Australia and Ireland.  Urban Fox (Foxwedge-Lomapamar) easily won the Pretty Pretty  Polly Stakes in Ireland. This race is regarded as a useful guide to the English Oaks. Lot 82 with a 4mx4m cross to Storm Cat is related to Sadilla (Foxwedge-Saderaat) winner of a listed race in Italy over 2000m. Lot 82 has Storm Cat 4mx3m. Another things this filly has going for her is that of the 15SW sired by Foxwedge, 13 are fillies and 2 are colts.

Both these interesting  yearling from Domesday and Foxwedge are worth a look.

 

MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sale 2020

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MM Gold Coast March Yearling Sales 2020 

These Sales are coming up quicker than I can Analyse their content!. The MM  March Yearling Sales has quality horses. To find them you have to dig deep into the pedigrees. I will comment on three Lots of the 412 on offer. Two of them are based on PRI analysis and the third is a long shot .Ahonoora broodmare performance.points a yearling related to the English Derby winner Masar.

Lot 95 (ch c Star Witness – Zaripova )

Star Witness has a useful stud career with impressive 65% winners to runners. The female line through Zaripova is quite strong with a Six Generation Female Index (6GFI) of 11.6%.  Shirley Heights, Pentire and Fubu are just some of the well performed descendants of this line. The mare is well positioned in the pedigree for some of their ability to rub off. The PRI of 85.6 indicates that this colt should be a city winner. He could perhaps go even better.

Lot 334 ( c f Nicconi – More Than Royal)

Nicconi is essentially a sire of sprinters. None of his 18SW has won beyond 1610m. Group 1 success has come with Nature Strip in the Galaxy (1100m) , the Moir (1000m) and Darley Classic (1200m). He can perform with broodmare sires that sire sprinters. More Than Ready fills that role. The 6GFI index of this filly is a respectable 7.8%. With a PRI of 82.9 she should be competitive in the city.

Lot 169 (b c Dawn Approach – Cross Stitched)

This is my roughie. Dawn Approach was an exceptional racehorse. He won all the important races on his way to the European Champion Juvenile title. Four G1: Two Thousand Guineas, Dewhurst, Vincent O Brien, St James Palace. His stud performance to date has been modest, a winners/runners ratio of 40.9%. The credentials of Cross Stitched with a 6GFI of 4.7% is not exceptional. And she is way removed from any Black Type action in this pedigree analysis. I calculate the PRI score of this colt to be 72.1. So what is it about this pedigree to get excited about? The excitement comes from the 4×4 cross to the stallion Ahonoora. This horse was super sire but I will restrict my comments to the cross of two of his daughters.

Park Appeal

Park Appeal (Ahonoora – Balidaress) was a Dual G1 winner and the dam of 4SW. The best known was Cape Cross the sire of the World Champion Horse of 2009, Sea The Stars.

Park Express (Ahonoora – Matcher) was a G1 winner of the Irish Champion Stakes and the dam of 3 SW including the Derby winner New Approach.

This colt by Dawn Approach carries a 3fx3f cross: Park Express x Park Appeal. The 2018 English Derby winner Masar (New Approach- Khawlah) has a 2fx3f cross: Park Express x Park Appeal. 

Will the power of these genes by sufficient to bypass the deficiencies in the rest of the pedigree? Will this be a super horse or a modest performer his PRI indicates ? Only time will tell

As I have said previously, look at them closely and reach your own conclusion.

MM Adelaide Yearling Sales 2020

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MM Adelaide Yearling Sales 2020 

It is now time to turn our attention to the MM Adelaide yearling sales of 2020. They are not quite the sales they were in my youth. Cummings and Hayes were both training here. John Hawkes was a premier jockey. Mark Kavanagh was fearless over the jumps. But time changes a lot of things. Nevertheless, the MM Adelaide has some interesting yearlings. All you need is knowledge and luck. Two of the 521 lots which interest me and I believe would be worth looking at. Anyone following my blogs on the various sales will notice I concentrate on sires that have a track record of producing winners.  My systems are based on statistical analysis. Without statistics there can be no analysis.

Lot 139 (b c Al Maher-Theophania)

Al Maher has proved to be a versatile stallion. He has sired 27 SW  of which 4 have won at the G1 level  All his G1 winners has saluted at 1600m or further. In fact his most successful horse Delicacy, not only won the Australasian Oaks, the SA and WA Derbies, but also the Perth Cup (3200m). This is not to say Al Maher cannot produce sprinters. Monsieur Gustave won the G3 Summer Stakes (1200m) and three Listed races-one at 1400m and two at 1200m. I have calculated a PRI value for this Al Maher colt of 89.2. This suggests a City winner which could go on to even greater things.

Lot 261 (ch c Manhattan Rain- Daily Flyer)

Manhattan Rain has proved to be another versatile sire. He has sired 13 SW with 2xG1winners. She Will Reign won both the Golden Slipper (1200m) and the Moir Stakes (1000m). At the other end of the distance scale, Whisky Baron won the Metropolitan (2000m) in South Africa. And if you want to take it even further, Runaway was successful in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) and the L VRC St Leger (2800m)

Manhattan Rain

There is little doubt that the dam’s side of the pedigree is one of the most influential of the 20th century. Going back to Mumtaz Mahal the grandam of Nasrullah, through to other names in the family such as Octagonal, Tristalove, Commands, Danewin,  Impaler, Diamond Lover-it goes on and on. The six generation Female Index is 11.6% which is most impressive. The pedigree shows inbreeding to the mare Rolls. This can be either good or bad depending on how you look at it. On the bad side I understand Rolls was a difficult mare to manage (one handler called her “a nut case”) So temperate genes might be wanting. On the other hand she contributed racing genes to make a Golden slipper winner.

A PRI value of 85.0 points to a city class horse, and perhaps something even better. As I have said previously, look at them closely and make you opinion.

 

Inglis Premier Yearling Sales Catalogue 2020

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Inglis Premier Yearling Sales 2020

The Inglis Premier Yearling Sales of 2020 is next in line with 783 Lots and some interesting yearlings. My previous blogs in 2020 have looked at No Nay Never and the staying sires Tavistock and Teofilo. Seventeen Lots represent them again and I won’t cover the same ground.  But in the theme of trying to find stayers there is one Australian based sire that has sired three Derby winners. He has only one representative at the Sale.

Domesday is up with the best of the locals 

Domesday: aqis farms

This Horse  (Red Ransom-In The Past) is an overlooked local stallion. When it comes to stayers his credentials are well up with his contemporaries .Domesday, Redoute’s Choice and Scenic have all sired three Derby winners. . To my mind, his record enables him to be classified as a sire of stayers. His achievements were brought to focus this week by Five to Midnight’s win in the Launceston Cup (G3). The horse had already won three Cups in NZ and was just beaten in the Auckland Cup of 3200m. Domesday has produced 18SW (5xG1, 3xG2, 4xG3, 6xL) that have recorded a total of 39 stakes wins. Of these only four were recorded at a distance < 1400m. Mares that have strong staying pedigrees will improve the chances of getting a useful stayer.

The Lone Candidate 

One solitary yearling represents Domesday. Lot 131 (Domesday- Dom Perion) is a pretty useful loner. A full brother to the 2018 Victorian Derby winner sold to Hong Kong. Last year a tragic accident caused the death of Extra Brut.. Full brothers are not genetically the same, nor do they perform identically on the racetrack. However, we know the genes are there; it’s how they function together which is important.

Female Line Pedigree 

There are three positive factors in the female line which support the view that Domesday-Dom Perion produces a good stayer:

  • The female 5th generation male line comprising Northern Dancer, His Majesty, Bletchingly, Nijinsky, Red God, Halo, Vaguely Noble, Lyphard, is hard to beat for toughness and staying power combined with speed
  • The 4fx 5f between the daughters of Best in Show is a proven good cross
  • Although it doesn’t appear in the Sales Catalogue, the tail line mare Senones, has a famous relation. She is a full sister to the 1951 French Champion 3yo of the year.A dual G1 Derby winner (2100, 2400m) Sicambre (Prince Bio-Sif) who later became a successful sire (401 foals, 44 SW).He was champion sire of the year in 1966.

He is worth a look.

 

 

Inglis Classic Yearling Sales Catalogue 2020

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Inglis Classic Yearling Sales 2020

The yearling sales are underway and the next in line is the Inglis Classic for 2020. There are 808 Lots on offer from 103 sires. In a search for stayers, how many are there likely to be?  At the 2017 version of the sale a colt was offered with a reserve of $70k but was passed in at $45k. He went on to win the 2019 Melbourne Cup under the name of Vow and Declare. In the Catalogue are there any future stayers that could be Melbourne Cup winners ? There may well be but how do we search for stayers?

Vow and Declare

Where to look

Lets cut town our task  to a manageable number in the search for stayers. The first step is to look at the progeny of those sires who are most likely to sire a Classic/3200m race winner. What is our definition of a sire of stayers? I have set one  criteria. The sire has to have fathered at least two Stake Winners who have won over 2400m (12f) or further. Does this mean that sires who have not met this criterion will not sire a SW over 2400m or further?  Certainly not, but selecting progeny from a proven sire of stayers is more likely to bring success rather than employ a method of random selection.  Like the old saying-If you want to find gold, look somewhere where someone has already found some.

Stayers Benchmark 

A few words of explanations about sires of stayers before we delve into the Catalogue,. The current benchmark has to be Galileo (Sadler’s Wells – Urban Sea). He has sired an incredible 306 SW, 85xG1 of which 47 have won at 2400 or longer. An example of the success of not a true stayer is Bletchingly (Biscay – Coogee) who sired 18 SW, 9xG1 and two of his progeny (Kingston Town and Cossack Prince won at 2400m or beyond. However, the next horse in the list, Kenny’s Best Pal won at 2040m and the remainder were sprinters or milers at best. So some sires can prove you wrong but it is more productive to stick to those who have the data behind them.

Staying Sires at the Sales 

There are 10 sires represented at the Sale who meet the criterion of a sire of stayers in Yearling Sales Catalogue 2020.They are listed in the Table below along with their number of SW and the percentage of their SW that have won at 2400m or beyond.

It is self evident that both Tavistock ( Montjeu – Upstage) and Teofilo (Galileo – Speirbhean) are way ahead of the competition. Both have sired winners at 3200m and Teofilo has Cross Counter, a winner of a Melbourne Cup to his credit.  Somewhere in the table there is likely to be good hoses which can win our classic races. If you want a head start I would look at Lot 504 a filly by Teofilo from Sydney’s Destiny ( Dubai Destination – Sydney’s Quest ). She is a close relative to the filly Ezira (Teofilo – Eytarna (Dubai Destination – Ebaziya). Ezira was a very good racehorse that won the Blandford Stakes (G2) over 11f and the Kiternan Stakes also in Ireland over 12f at G3 level. Her full sister won a L race over 8f.

The search for stayers is not over yet. The next step is to look for compatibility of the female line. And of course to inspect the horse. However, remember the wise words of legendary trainer John Nerud. “Don’t go to a stakes paddock to study textbook conformation.” 

MM Yearling Sales Catalogue (Part 2)

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No Nay Never 

No Nay Never starts with a number of the new stallions whose progeny are making their debut at the MM yearling sales of 2020, During my trip to Ireland in 2016, most of the people in the industry considered him to be the most promising horse entering the breeding barn that year. His record to date says they were on the right track. His stud fee has risen from an initial E25k, to E100k and is reportedly going to be E200k next season. This is more than promising, it mirrors results.

What has he achieved to date? Firstly he was a pretty good racehorse with wins in England, America and France in only 6 starts.  In 2018 he was the leading first season sire in Great Britain /Ireland and had a G1 winner (Ten Sovereigns) included in his first crop of 18SW.

Is Australia the right place for him?

How successful might he be in Australia? Ten Sovereigns is out of an Exceed and Excel mare which should send a few green lights flashing. In fact of the 18SW, Danzig line stallions as the broodmare sire account for seven. Australia is not short of Danzig line broodmares through Danehill and all his sons.

Along the No Nay Never sire line all stallions back to Northern Dancer himself cross well with Danzig line mares. No Nay Never could do great things in Australia. The abundance of mare talent available from Danehill/Danzig lines is a positive. Our fixation of getting a quick return breeding sprinters another. Of the 17 Yearlings on offer, ten are from Danehill line mares and there should be good demand for them. Whether they will pay back their sale price is another question, but most should at least win a race or two.

Passed in at $25,000

Passed in at $25,000

A final word on the Sale

If you see a horse like the one in the photograph, stop and take a second look. The colt was passed in at $US25,000. The few people that viewed  him commented that he was too small. He went on to have a racetrack record of 18 starts, 14 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. His four G1 successes included the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Northern Dancer went on to become the greatest sire of the 20th Century. There will be bargains at the Sale-the problem is they are not always obvious.